Morton Marcus: Decreased turmoil in the jobs market – Daily Journal

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Every month the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in Washington gives us the latest data on employment and unemployment.

These data are released at the national and state levels. Then the state-level data are distilled to the county and, yea verily, unto cities and towns.

The latter program is called Local Area Unemployment Statistics with the unfortunate acronym LAUS. Some critics question the accuracy of these smaller area data and emphasize the aptness of the acronym. These were the November 2024 unemployment rates, U.S. 4.0%, Indiana 4.2%, with Auburn 4.2%, Carmel 3.3%, Jeffersonville 4.0% and Highland 4.9%.

At the state level, we also get monthly estimates of significant changes within the job market. These are from the BLS JOLTS report which, by and large, the media ignore because they are not given to dramatic change.

JOLTS stands for Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. In November 2024, the preliminary estimate for the job openings rate in the nation was 4.8% compared to 5.4% a year earlier.

That was a key indicator of a cooling jobs market, a slowing from the frenzy of the immediate post-pandemic period. For Indiana, the figure was also 4.8% in 2024, basically unchanged from the 4.7% a year earlier.

Hiring showed a minor slowdown nationally from 3.2% to 3.0%. In contrast, Indiana experienced an increasing Hiring rate from 3.6% in ‘23 to 4.3% in ‘24. Possibly, Indiana’s more vigorous Hiring rate than the nation was due to Indiana’s greater rate of separations — quits, layoffs and discharges — than that of the entire nation.

In our state, the separation rate was unchanged at 3.5% over the year to November 2024. For the nation, the separation rate was already below Indiana’s at 3.0% and 2.8% respectively. It seems reasonable that a state with a higher separation rate would also have a higher hiring rate.

Separations are reported in two major categories. Quits are where a worker chooses to leave the job. Additionally, BLS provides data on layoffs and discharges, where employers initiate the termination of employment.

Nationally, quits normally peak in August as summer jobs end. Historically, going back to 2014, the quit rate peaked at 3.5% in August 2021 and was only 1.6% in November 2024. Indiana follows the same pattern, peaking in August 2021 at 4.5% and resting at 2.2% in November 2024.

The layoffs and discharge rates were virtually identical for the nation and Indiana in November 2024 at 1.1% and 1.2%.

While few readers may have found intellectual stimulation in this recitation of rates, these labor market dynamics are important. They tell us more about our economy than simple unemployment rates. They also reveal the significant job stability we enjoy and endure.

Morton Marcus is an economist. Follow his views and those of John Guy on “Who Gets What?” wherever podcasts are available or at mortonjohn.libsyn.com.

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