Could Florida residents see snow as cold fronts arrive?
AccuWeather’s 2024-2025 winter forecast
Will it be a cold and snowy winter? Lincoln Riddle spoke with AccuWeather’s long-range experts to find out.
Two cold fronts are expected to hit Florida in the early days of 2025, after the new year arrives Wednesday with above-normal temperatures.
Temperatures are forecast to be around freezing later this week in the Panhandle and North Florida, followed by temperatures dropping into the 20s next week for the same area.
And then it will get really cold as a blast of cold air from the Arctic moves into Florida. How cold? Depending on several factors, temperatures could be around the freezing mark even in South Florida, according to Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather long-range meteorologist in a phone interview Monday morning.
Here’s what we have to look forward to in early January.
Multiple cold fronts forecast to send Florida temps down in early 2025
“Multiple shots of cold air will be coming into the eastern U.S. during the first two weeks of January,” DaSilva said
The first front is expected to arrive around Jan. 3-4, bringing some below-average temperatures across Florida.
Temperatures around the state could be:
- Panhandle/North Florida: around freezing
- Central Florida: low to mid-40s
- South Florida: upper 40s to low 50s
After that front, temperatures may “creep up a little bit for a day or so,” especially in South Florida, DaSilva said.
Then the next cold front is expected to arrive around Jan. 8.
This front “could bring some pretty chilly weather,” DaSilva said, predicting temperatures could be:
- Panhandle/North Florida: below freezing; some areas could drop into the upper 20s
- Central Florida: above freezing, with some areas in the upper 30s and low 40s
- South Florida: upper 40s into the low 50s
Then it will get progressively colder.
Arctic blast expected to hit Florida Jan. 11-12
The timing of a blast of Arctic air reaching Florida could change, but current forecasts call for it to arrive around Jan. 11-12.
“This looks to be the coldest one for Florida,” DaSilva said. Freezing temperatures could even reach South Florida, depending on how far south the cold air can come down.
Currently, the data “supports the idea we could see below-freezing temperatures into central and possibly into South Florida. Some areas in Florida could challenge record daily lows.
“This is going to be an impactful event,” with temperatures:
- Panhandle/North Florida: It’s possible some aeras could see temperatures in the teens
- Central Florida: mid- to upper 20s, even in Orlando
- South Florida: It’s hard for Arctic air “to get all the way down there, but temperatures could be around the freezing mark. It would take a lot to get Miami around freezing but interior locations could potentially slip below freezing,” DaSilva said.
Several factors need to be in place for Arctic air to reach as far south as Central and South Florida:
- Winds have to come from just west of north to push cold air down the Florida peninsula. If too far to the west, they warm up over the Gulf of Mexico.
- Snow. If the Arctic air is moving over snow across the Midwest and north-central U.S. The Jan. 5-6 storm in the central U.S. will play a role in Florida’s Arctic blast Jan. 11-12. If it brings snow, “that helps cold air to stay cold. More snow there will help determine how far south the cold will be in Florida,” DaSilva said.
Could Polk County see a historic low?
Tyler Fleming, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Ruskin, said the coldest of the waves is still too far out to speculate.
But he said in “late January, starting around the 11th or 12th, we could see very low temperatures.”
Records for Lakeland and Winter Haven go back as far as 1915. In that time, Fleming said the coldest official temperature measured in Lakeland was 20 degrees, which was measured three times: Dec. 13, 1962, and Jan. 21 and 22, 1985.
A Ledger front page from Jan. 23, 1985, the year of a historic freeze, says “18 degrees” in giant type.
Fleming said the official low in Winter Haven on Jan. 21, 1985 was 19 degrees, “so it’s certainly feasible 18 degrees could’ve been measured somewhere.”
But before the big blast reaches Florida, Polk County should see a couple of other mild cold snaps bringing temperatures progressively lower.
Fleming said Thursday morning’s low will be 45 to 48 degrees with a similar low Friday. Saturday’s low will be 43 to 45, with Sunday getting closer to 40.
Will it snow in Florida during coming cold fronts?
“I would say it’s zero chance with the Jan 3-4 and 7-8 events,” said Michael Doll, AccuWeather senior meteorologist.
“If the blast is intense enough during the second week of January, then it’s possible some people in Florida can see some snow flakes,” she added.
Florida citrus groves could suffer during polar vortex
There is potential for damage in Florida’s northern citrus groves, DaSilva said.
Even groves in the southern portions of the state could “flirt” with potential damage,” which occurs when temperatures hit around 28 degrees.
“I’m a little concerned more about the northern citrus groves from Orlando north, where temperatures could be in the upper or even mid-20s,” DaSilva said. South of Lake Okeechobee could see temperatures around freezing.
What comes up must come down: As Florida freezes, western US to be warm
Cold air moving down from northern Canada — from the Arctic and even Russia — will be forced over the top of a large area of high pressure over the western U.S. Temperatures will be above average west of the Rockies, but “what comes up must come down, so east of the Rockies will get that dump of cold air,” DaSilva said.
What is the polar vortex?
What is the polar vortex?
The polar vortex is a large area of low-pressure and cold air that typically swirls around the Earth’s poles, particularly the North Pole.
unbranded – Newsworthy
The polar vortex is a large area of circulating winds about 30 miles above the Earth’s surface, according to NASA. Those winds spin at speeds of around 155 mph, according to the U.K. Met Office. That’s almost the speed of a Category 5 hurricane.
“Most of the cold air in the northern hemisphere is trapped near the North Pole,” DaSilva said. “Sometimes a piece breaks off, and comes down into Canada and the U.S., bringing extremely cold temperatures.
“During winter, we see that several times a year. Obviously, the strength varies and it may not last long. This time, it looks like a stronger piece is coming down.”
January 2025 outlook from NWS Climate Prediction Center
There’s a potential for above-normal temperatures to end 2024, which could continue into New Year’s Day 2025, bringing a warm start to the new year, the Climate Prediction Center said.
➤ New Year’s week, winter 2024 forecast
➤ How will weather affect your Florida New Year’s Eve plans? See the forecast
Climate Prediction Center issues winter outlook for 2025
Remember La Niña? The Pacific system that influences hurricanes in the Atlantic by setting up conditions that help tropical cyclones build and strengthen, never did develop as expected during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
But the system also affects winter weather across the U.S. and it’s slowly developing, according to the Climate Prediction Center.
This winter, NOAA is predicting warmer-than-average temperatures for several areas, including along the Gulf Coast.
And while 2024 is ending with rain across much of Florida, it may not last in early 2025.
“The greatest likelihood for drier-than-average conditions are in states bordering the Gulf of Mexico,” according to the Climate Prediction Center.
This story was updated to add new information.
