As the conclusion to the season comes into sharper focus, the field of viable MVP candidates has been shrinking.
With five weeks to go in the regular season, the consensus top two betting favorites for the award are Bills quarterback Josh Allen and Eagles running back Saquon Barkley.
Allen is the only one with negative odds. Barkley is in the range of 3:1 to 5:1.
After that, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has dropped to roughly 9:1 to 13:1. Lions quarterback Jared Goff is in the same range, and Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is behind it, by a bit.
It’s a steep drop after that to other candidates.
That said, there’s still roughly a month to go in the season. Things can change. Things likely will change. And the final playoff seeding will continue to have a major influence over the voters. For every year since 2013, a quarterback by a team that secured a playoff bye has won the MVP.
This dynamic points to the quarterback from the AFC top seed or the NFC top seed winning it. Thus, betting on Allen is essentially betting on the Bills closing the one-game gap with the Chiefs for the top seed. If they don’t, the quarterback from the NFC top seed becomes a finalist along with Mahomes.
Allen would still have a chance, but seeing the final assignment of playoff seeds has a major impact on the voting.
Barkley can disrupt that trend by having a historic season or something close to it. He’s got 1,499 rushing yards in 12 games. That projects to 2,123, a single-season record.
If the Eagles end up toppling the Lions for the top seed, Barkley has a great chance to win it. Even if the Eagles are the No. 2, setting the rushing record could be enough.
Regardless, for now it’s down to Allen and Barkley. But others could be lurking, and the odds can and likely will shift, one weekend at a time.
