Quiet time is over in the tropics.
The National Hurricane Center is now tracking a broad area of low pressure in the Caribbean Sea that could become a tropical depression late this week or over the weekend.
AccuWeather weather forecasters have been warning since last week about the potential for a tropical depression or storm to develop in the western Caribbean and currently give the system a high chance for development between Oct. 31 and Nov.4.
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There’s also another area with potential for development over the weekend or early next week. This one is located east-southeast of Florida.
The next named storms of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be Patty and Rafael.
Since 1851, three hurricanes have made landfall in Florida in November, exhausting residents emotionally and physically. The Atlantic hurricane season ends Nov. 30.
“We are tired because the 2024 hurricane season punched us harder than any in a generation,” said Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist with WeatherTiger. Truchelut is a Florida meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network.
Here’s the latest advisory from the NHC as of 8 a.m., Monday, Oct. 28:
Tropical Storm Patty? Will Florida see another storm or hurricane?
Two conditions that have played a role throughout this hurricane season could bring yet another depression or tropical storm: low wind shear and very warm water.
“If there is low wind shear, which we expect, I think we will be getting a tropical depression or storm to form,” said AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno.
Yet another factor this time is the Central American Gyre, which is more active at the start and end of the season. A gyre is an area of slowly spinning air that can help the development of tropical systems.
“Although tropical storms that form from the gyre can sometimes take several days to become better organized, development can sometimes ramp up quickly once it begins,” AccuWeather said.
“Storms in the Caribbean usually move to the north or northeast in November. This means that residents and visitors along the Southeast Coast will have to keep a close eye on development,” cautioned DaSilva.
November brings tropical development closer to Florida, US
While months earlier in the Atlantic hurricane season typically see tropical waves emerge off the African coast, moving across the Atlantic and giving people plenty of advance notice, that’s not the case for the last month of the season.
“As we move into early November, the focus for tropical development shifts closer to the United States. Typically, the areas of focus late in the season are the Caribbean and off the Southeast coast,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.
Another area to watch located southeast of Florida, US
This area currently has a low chance for development. It could form along the end of a cold front that will move off the East Coast late this week, according to AccuWeather.
“If an area of low pressure forms and is not attached to the front, then the development potential would increase.”
Tropical depression could form late this week in Caribbean
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days.
Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend while the system begins to drift northward or northeastward over the southwestern and central Caribbean Sea.
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Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent.
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Formation chance through 7 days: medium, 40 percent.
What else is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?
The National Hurricane Center also is watching four tropical waves:
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Eastern Atlantic: An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W, south of 15N, moving westward at 11 to 17 mph.
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East of Leeward Islands: A tropical wave along 52W, south of 17N is moving westward at 11 to 17 mph.
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Eastern Caribbean Sea: A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean along 68W, extending south into western Venezuela.
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Southwestern Caribbean: Another tropical wave has reached the Caribbean plains of Nicaragua, along 84W, south of 18N.
Who is likely to be impacted?
Regardless of development, widespread downpours are expected over much of the Caribbean this week, AccuWeather said. Life-threatening mudslides and flash flooding can result, even in the unlikely event that a tropical depression or tropical storm does not develop.
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
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When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
Countdown clock: When will hurricane season end?
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
What’s next?
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This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: Florida hurricane forecast: NHC tracking 4 tropical waves
