Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how to bet on the Celtics versus Hornets matchup, plus player props on Tobias Harris and Deandre Ayton.
Tobias Harris O/U 24.5 PRA vs Knicks
The Knicks allowed the fewest rebounds per game over the past three contests (37.7) and are tied for 15th in assists per game (22.7). New York’s opponents over the past three games have shot 30.2% from three (3rd) and averaged 105.0 points per game (5th)
Tobias Harris is 0-for-11 from three in the past three games and 14-of-40 (35%) from the field in that span. Before the 76ers game (18 points, 14 rebounds), Harris was 9-of-31 (29%) from the field in a three-game span. The Pistons forward averages 4.0 assist chances per game and 14.8 rebound chances on the season, but I think both numbers dip here versus New York.
I like this sell-high spot after the personal and emotional win in Philly against his former team. I played Harris Under 24.5 PRA (-120) and the Under 16.5 Points + Assists (+100) on DraftKings. I’d go down to 23.5 and 15.5.
Pick: Tobias Harris Under 24.5 PRA (1u), Tobias Harris Under 16.5 Points + Assists (1u)
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Deandre Ayton O/U 15.5 Points vs Thunder
Deandre Ayton has started the season with 14.4 points and 12.2 rebounds per game for Portland but faces the resilient test yet. Oklahoma City ranks seventh in the NBA with 43.5 points in the paint allowed, where Ayton gets 88.8% of his points (64 of 72 points).
The Thunder have the No. 1 ranked defensive net rating and three-point defense (27.8%), plus they own the second-best defensive rebounding percentage, so Ayton should have a tough time scoring and grabbing offensive rebounds.
With only three free-throw attempts on the season, I don’t expect Ayton to be aggressive enough to score 16-plus points. With 15, 20, and 17 in the last three games, I believe this is a solid sell-high spot.
I played Ayton Under 15.5 points at -115 odds on DraftKings and would go down to 14.5 for -110 or better.
Pick: Deandre Ayton Under 15.5 Points (1u)
Boston Celtics (-11) vs Charlotte Hornets: O/U 232.0
This matchup is the first back-to-back series that includes tomorrow’s meeting in Charlotte. Boston likely won’t have to run a muck on the Hornets in the fourth quarter. Charlotte’s played Houston, Atlanta, Miami, and Toronto. Those four opponents rank 9th, 14th, 20th, and 18th in offensive net rating, while Boston is 2nd.
The Celtics scored 69, 59, and 65 first-half points against the Hornets last year but lost two of the three meetings, including the previous two coming in April.
Charlotte’s defense has looked great early in the last two games granting Miami (23) and Toronto (16) 39 combined first-quarter points. However, in the second quarter, Charlotte allowed 33 and 43 points.
I don’t think that early defense holds against Boston coming off a loss to Indiana and two straight losses to Charlotte. Give me the Celtics First Quarter Team Total Over 31.5 (+100) and First Half Team Total Over 62.5 (-110).
Pick: Celtics 1Q Team Total Over 31.5 (1u), Celtics 1H Team Total Over 62.5 (1.5u)
Season Record: 25-10 (71.4%) +17.33u
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