Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his best bets for the Thursday NBA slate, featuring Jaylen Brown and the Celtics, plus props on Luka Doncic and Mike Conley.
Jaylen Brown O/U 23.5 Points at Wizards
Boston Celtics Team Total O/U 123.5 Points at Wizards
Happy Birthday, Jaylen Brown! The Celtics are heavy favorites in Washington DC after the 132-point outing over the Knicks and rightfully so.
However, the Celtics Team Total of 123.5 points is insanely high and Brown’s point prop of 23.5 is just right. The hype of the Celtics’ ring ceremony is over and this is a road game against one of the bottom-feeders in the NBA, leaving me with the impression that Boston will not come out firing or making 29-of-61 three-pointers (48%).
Of those 132 points, Brown scored 23 points in 30 minutes on 7-of-18 shooting (5-of-9 from three). Brown now has the birthday juju in his corner and a 23.5 line versus a much worse defense.
I played Brown Over 23.5 Points at -120 odds and the Celtics Team Total Under 123.5 at -110 odds. I’d go to 25-plus for Brown (+100) and down to 121.5 for Boston’s Team Total.
Pick: Jaylen Brown Over 23.5 Points (1.5u), Celtics Team Total Under 123.5 (1u)
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Luka Doncic O/U 49.5 PRA vs. Spurs
Luka Doncic opened last season up with 33 points, 13 rebounds, and 10 assists versus the Spurs, but this year, he hasn’t played in the preseason at all.
Doncic has been resting because of a calf contusion and that will either bode wonderfully or terribly for him in the season opener. Dallas is working Klay Thompson into the mix along with a few other pieces, so Doncic won’t have to be relied on as heavily.
Last year the excitement of Victor Wembanyama making his NBA debut in San Antonio against Dallas was all through the air, whereas this is season two for Wemby and a home game in Dallas. I like Doncic to go Under his 49.5 PRA line (-120) down to 47.5.
Pick: Luka Doncic Under 49.5 PRA (1u)
Mike Conley O/U 15.5 PRA vs. Kings
Mike Conley had a less-than-stellar debut scoring five points on 1-for-7 from the field, four rebounds and two assists in 20 minutes. Conley was replaced down the stretch against the Lakers for Donte DiVincenzo and others, which was the right move.
With Conley on the floor, the Timberwolves were out-scored by 23 points in the first half and now he faces the backcourt of D’Aaron Fox, Malik Monk, DeMar DeRozan, and Keegan Murray.
I don’t think Conley will be efficient enough or see enough minutes to go over his point total (8.5) or PRA line of 15.5. I played Conley Under 15.5 PRA at -125 odds.
Pick: Mike Conley Under 15.5 PRA (1u)
Season Record: 5-2 (71.4%) +3.3 units
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Sprinkles
Victor Wembanyama First Basket / First Point (+500)
Wemby will likely win most tip-offs giving the Spurs the first possession of the game. Anytime that happens, the big man is normally the play if he’s the No. 1 scoring option and Wemby is that with a 25.5 prop line.
Jaylen Brown First Basket / First Point (+500) and 30-plus points (+275)
It’s Brown’s Birthday, so I am sprinkling the first basket (+470) and 30-plus points (+250) on the Celtics’ star. Brown has scored 30-plus against the Wizards in four of the past eight meetings.
De’Aaron Fox 30+ points (+340) – King of the Court Pick
DraftKings has a promo of the top PRA pick each night that rewards people (see promo for more info). I nailed Anthony Davis as the leader on opening night and received a $93 bonus bet. On day 2, LaMelo Ball won (53 PRA) and I had Damian Lillard (45). Today, I am rolling with De’Aaron Fox against the Timberwolves, but don’t hate Jaylen Brown or Nikola Jokic.
Want even more NBA best bets and predictions from our expert staff & tools? Check out the EXPERT NBA Predictions page from NBC Sports for money line, spread and total picks for each of the games on today’s calendar!
