The small sample size theater of the opening weeks of the NBA season leads to wild swings and some jumbled NBA Power Rankings, like this one. The top is pretty straightforward (especially the top two), but I am willing to bet Dallas will be back in contender status soon, that Philadelphia will not be in the bottom 10 once healthy, and Milwaukee can’t be this bad, right? Nothing is settled, but here are this week’s rankings.
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1. Oklahoma City Thunder (7-0, Last Week No. 2). The 7-0 Thunder are taking 15.3% more 3-pointers a game this season compared to last, which is by design. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had an interesting quote about why the team is leaning into the 3: “It doesn’t matter how you get it done every night, if you win, that’s all that matters. And the teams that have won in the past maybe a decade or so, they’ve shot a lot of 3s. I think that’s why the league’s gone the way it is, because teams want to win.” The Thunder are winning and they are unquestionably one of the best teams.
2. Boston Celtics (7-1, LW 1). The Celtics are averaging 50.9 3-point attempts a game, nearly seven more than second-place Charlotte. That can lead to some rough nights when the shots just don’t fall, like in the one loss to Indiana, when the Celtics shot 33.3% as a team (and still forced overtime). For the season, the Celtics are shooing 37.8% on 3-pointers, which is the eighth-best in the league. Boston starts its NBA Cup games next Tuesday night, hosting the Atlanta Hawks. Boston can win the mid-season tourney, will they prioritize it?
3. Cleveland Cavaliers (8-0, LW 4). It’s one thing to know the Cavaliers can blow out the Wizards or the Lakers on a night LeBron James is off his game, but the back-to-back tight wins over the Bucks last week showed some grit and moved them up to contender status for me (even if the Bucks are stumbling out of the gate). This week’s victories also showed Donovan Mitchell can drain game-winners under pressure. The Cavaliers have tied the franchise record for the fastest start, and they have done it largely thanks to the depth and bench units (the Cavaliers starting five has just a +1.8 net rating, but that should improve once Max Strus gets healthy and returns to the starters, adding the impressive Dean Wade to the bench units.)
4. Phoenix Suns (6-1, LW 5). It’s a small sample size stat, but the Suns are 5-0 in clutch games this season (games within five points in the final five minutes), and have an unsustainable +53.2 net rating in those minutes. That’s a huge change from a season ago when the Suns could be counted on for a fourth-quarter collapse, and while the Suns’ overall fourth quarter numbers are not thrilling (+0.5 net rating, 16th in the league) it’s a step forward from a season ago (-11.6, dead last in the league). It helps when you have Kevin Durant doing Kevin Durant things, like hitting a game-winner.
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5. Golden State Warriors (6-1, LW 7). No doubt the start of the schedule has been soft for Golden State, but the Warriors have done what great teams do: Beat the teams they are supposed to beat. Picking up three of those wins without Stephen Curry is an even better sign that “strength in numbers” is more than just a marketing slogan, this team is buying in. It helps that Buddy Hield has turned into an honorary Splash Brother hitting 50% of his 9.4 3-point attempts a game. We’ll have a better sense of just how good these Warriors are after this week when they face the Celtics, Cavaliers and Thunder.
6. Dallas Mavericks (4-3, LW 3). It’s surprising Jason Kidd has stuck with Daniel Gafford as the starter at center instead of Dereck Lively II. The Mavericks starting five (Kyrie Irving, Klay Thompson, Luka Doncic, P.J. Washington and Gafford) has a -11.5 net rating this summer, but replace Gafford with Lively and that jumps to +4.4. It’s also surprising that Dallas is in the bottom 10 in offense to start the season, but much of that may be due to Doncic taking a step back in efficiency so far. His counting stats are still there — 28.9 points, 8.3 rebounds, 7.4 assists a game — but he’s shooting just 32.4% from 3, and his true shooting percentage is 51.9, well below a season ago (61.7) or even the league average (around 57). That should change over time, and with it the Dallas offense will start to climb with it.
PLAYOFFS OR BUST
7. Minnesota Timberwolves (4-3, LW 9). The team that was the runaway best defense in the NBA last season is struggling to get stops (relatively), ranked 13th in the league this season. The biggest issue is opponents are getting out and running on the Timberwolves — they are in the bottom five in percentage of opponent offense that starts in transition. A lot of that has to do with personnel changes — Karl-Anthony Towns and Kyle Anderson are out, and Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo are in — which changed how they wanted to play right before the season started. It’s a work in progress, much like the team’s starting five, which has a -9 net rating so far this season. The bigger Minnesota news is that arbitration is taking place this week in the ownership fight between Glen Taylor and the Marc Lorie/Alex Rodriguez group. We should find out who wins that fight in about a month.
8. Houston Rockets (4-3, LW 15). Houston has the 11th-ranked offense in the NBA this season, which is kind of amazing considering they are the fifth-worst 3-point shooting team in the league (32.2%) and fourth-worst in finishing at the rim (61.5%). One way they have made up for that is offensive rebounding, where they lead the NBA (15.3 a game, grabbing 31.3% of their missed shots for a second chance. That and a top-10 defense led to a quality win over Dallas last week, but they have a real test Friday night at Oklahoma City.
9. New York Knicks (3-3, LW 11). Remove that ugly season-opening blowout loss to the Celtics from the stats and this starts to look like a Tom Thibodeau team — fourth in the league in defense over their last five games and a +11.8 net rating (10th in the league over that stretch). Also very Thibodeau, he has leaned heavily into his starting five (Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, Karl-Anthony Towns), they have played the fifth most minutes of any lineup in the league this season and they have a +5.9 net rating. Don’t expect that to change, outside of Duece McBride there isn’t much depth behind this group.
10. Sacramento Kings (4-3, LW 16). Despite Domantas Sabonis’ putback game-winner against the Heat, and having clutch players in De’Aaron Fox and DeMar DeRozan on the roster, the Kings are 2-3 in clutch games this season (games within five points in the final five minutes). Change that to the final three minutes of a game within three points and it gets worse, the team has a -19.1 net rating. We’ll see if there are more clutch games this week against the Raptors, Clippers, Suns and Spurs.
11. Denver Nuggets (4-3, LW 13). Losing Aaron Gordon for multiple weeks due to a calf strain is a real blow for a Denver roster that was already thin. The Nuggets outscored teams by 12.5 points per 100 possessions when Gordon has been on the court, but has been getting outscored by 10.8 when he is off. Now Peyton Watson will step into the starting lineup and more minutes. Nikola Jokic is again playing at an MVP level, but he will need help to keep this team in the mix in the West until everyone gets healthy.
12. Los Angeles Lakers (4-3, LW 8). Are the Lakers the team that looked impressive beating the Timberwolves and Suns to open the season, or the one that looked much less so going 1-3 on its current road trip with a loss to Detroit in the mix? Anthony Davis isn’t sure: “We’re just two different teams right now. One game, we’re this team who showcased it can be one of the better teams in the league. Then the next, we’re this team who — I don’t even know who we are. So, we just got to be better.” Worth noting that J.J. Redick came in preaching the Lakers were going to take more 3-pointers. They are averaging 29.7 3-point attempts a game, dead last in the league and a couple fewer a game than last season (it’s early in the season, just worth noting).
13. Memphis Grizzlies (4-4, LW 10). Memphis is keeping their heads above water despite a rash of injuries to open the season — Desmond Bane, Marcus Smart, Luke Kennard and GG Jackson, not to mention rookie Vince Williams. The only Grizzlies player to start all eight games? Zach Edey has been solid offensively as a rookie averaging 11.1 points and 6.5 rebounds a game despite coach Jenkins keeping him under 20 minutes a night. Edey can get spun around on defense, but he’s also blocking some shots and learning. It’s a good sign for when the team gets healthy. Also, there can never be enough Ja Morant highlights.
14. Los Angeles Clippers (3-4, LW 12). There’s a pattern to the Clippers’ home losses — they play fast and physical in the first half, building double-digit leads, but come the second half they let the game slow down, pound the ball more looking to iso, and it all comes apart. Tyronn Lue had the numbers to back that up (from before the loss to the Thunder, which followed the pattern): “First quarter, we’re getting to our sets, our first triggers, in like 5.8 [seconds]. I mean 5.8 before we get to our first action, which we’re scoring 1.44 [points per possession]. And then the fourth quarter, we’re getting in almost 11 seconds before we get into our first trigger, and we’re still 1.06. That says it all.”
15. Miami Heat (3-3, LW 17). It’s not that hard to spot the problem. Just look at the Heat’s net ratings by quarter: 1st quarter +9.4, 2nd quarter +18.5 (third in NBA), 3rd quarter -35.5 (worst in the league), 4th quarter +9.4. Miami is just getting destroyed coming out of halftime and it’s costing them games. Miami’s starting five is struggling (-19.6 net rating), and with that Bam Adebayo is getting fewer touches and has been less efficient with the touches he has been getting, which is why Miami hopes his shooting performance in Mexico City against Washington — 3-of-5 from beyond the arc — is a sign of things to come.
16. San Antonio Spurs (3-4, LW 24). Our thoughts are with Gregg Popovich, hoping he gets healthy. San Antonio has closed ranks and been tight-lipped about what is going on, but it should be noted that long-time Spurs reporter Mike Finger of the San Antonio Express-News said the team is treating this very differently than the one- or two-game absences he’s had in the past. It’s far, far too early in the season to go down the end-of-season awards rabbit hole, but if Victor Wembanyama is going to have a Defensive Player of the Year case, it has to start with the Spurs being at least a top-10 defense, and ideally top five. Right now, San Antonio is ninth in the league with a 109.5 defensive rating.
17. Indiana Pacers (3-4, LW 20). Tyrese Haliburton is not himself, or at least not the Haliburton from the first half of last season the Pacers need him to be. His scoring is down to 15.6 points a game (20.1 last season), more concerning is his assists are down to 8 a night (10.9 last season), and he is shooting 24.1% from 3 (36.4%). There are reports he is dealing with a back issue, which would explain a lot, but Indiana needs him to get healthy if they are going to get back to the top of the East as they expect this season.
18. Brooklyn Nets (4-4, LW 26). Give credit to Jordi Fernandez because his Brooklyn squad has proven to be one of the more fun surprises of the early season. Dennis Schroder has been a leader and a clutch player, averaging 19.9 points and 7.3 assists a game. Cameron Johnson continues to impress (16.6 points a night), and Cam Thomas continues to fire away (24.9). Ben Simmons has been healthy and a respectable rotation player, but it’s time to move him to the bench and start Nic Claxton (the starting group looks much better with him).
PLAY IN HOPEFULS
19. Atlanta Hawks (3-5, LW 21). Trae Young no longer leads the NBA in total touches this season — because teammate Jalen Johnson passed him. Johnson leads the “race” 810 to 788 (for comparison, three-time MVP Nikola Jokic is third at 780). Young is passing more of those touches this season, particularly on drives, as defenses have loaded up to stop him. No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher has been forced into the starting lineup due to injuries and is averaging 10.5 points and 4 rebounds a game in that role, but his 41.2 true shooting percentage shows how much he has to adjust and grow his game in the NBA — he admitted he has discovered he can’t just get by on his athleticism in this league.
20. Chicago Bulls (3-4, LW 22). With Josh Giddey running the show, the Bulls are launching 34.5% more 3-pointers than they were a season ago, 43.1 a game, and they are hitting 38.1% of those. It hasn’t boosted their offense that much, it remains bottom 10 in the league. While it might be the right strategy to take more 3s, Chicago doesn’t have the depth of shooters to pull it off (Coby White, Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic, all shooting over 41% from 3, should just keep firing away, however). It’s a tough week ahead with Dallas, Minnesota, and Cleveland on the books.
21. Orlando Magic (3-5, LW 6). Orlando has gone 0-3 since Paolo Banchero went down with an oblique injury, but to be fair those losses were to Cleveland, Dallas and Oklahoma City (games the Magic might have lost anyway). Unsurprisingly, the problem is on the offensive end where the Magic have a 92.7 offensive rating in those three games without Banchero, they leaned heavily on him to create shots for himself and others. The Magic will open up their NBA Cup group play next Tuesday, hosting Charlotte.
22. New Orleans Pelicans (3-5, LW 18). It’s hard to get a read on this team because they are so banged up. CJ McCollum (adductor), Herbert Jones (shoulder), and Dejounte Murray (hand) are out for weeks, while Zion Williamson (hamstring) and Trey Murphy (hamstring) are closer to a return, but that’s five key rotation players who are missing time. The only thing keeping their heads above water is a pairing the Pelicans have shown previously they don’t think really works: Brandon Ingram with (when healthy) Zion. It has to work well enough for them not to fall behind the core group in the West during the next few weeks.
23. Detroit Pistons (3-5, LW 30). Start here praising J.B. Bickerstaff and the Pistons — they play hard every night now. That wasn’t the case a season ago. While Cade Cunningham leads the Pistons in points and assists (making his All-Star case early), the player who has really made a leap this season is Jaden Ivey. He’s attacking, shooting 50.6% inside the arc and 39% outside it, and looks like a quality player who can be a long-term part of whatever Detroit is building.
24. Philadelphia 76ers (1-5, LW 14). It was another loss, but it’s amazing just how much better things looked with even a rusty Paul George on the floor. Having the threat of a secondary playmaker opened things up for Tyrese Maxey and you could start to see where the pieces fit together. Joel Embiid returns next week — and don’t think it’s a coincidence that his deserved suspension ends just in time for NBA Cup games — and things should look even better. That said, this ugly 1-5 start (which may well get worse with a feisty Clippers team and then the Lakers up next) means this team has no margin for error the rest of the way. And, everyone is going to have to stay healthy, because we’ve seen how ugly things are without Embiid and George (the team is undersized and lacks secondary playmaking, teams just have to stop Maxey).
25. Milwaukee Bucs (1-6, LW 19). Everyone outside the Bucks locker room is talking about the team hitting the panic button, but not so much inside the locker room — they see a tough early schedule, no Khris Middleton and time to turn things around. Here’s Damian Lillard (who has broken out of his early season shooting slump): “Just because it’s a 1-6 start, it’s ugly. But when you look at the big picture it’s such a long season. It’s 75 games left. I’ve been part of teams that have won 16 straight, 14 straight. Sometimes you just get in a ditch. Sometimes it can happen in the middle of the season, it can happen toward the end of the season, and I think because it’s happening at the beginning and we’ve got one win and six losses it just looks different.” The Bucks can turn things around, but this slow start has shrunk their margin for error down to zero.
CAPTURE THE (COOPER) FLAGG
26. Charlotte Hornets (2-5, LW 23). The Hornets have the worst defense in the NBA — and that was before starting center Nick Richards, averaging 2.4 blocks a game, went down with a rib fracture and is out indefinitely. Charlotte has been entertaining and is beginning to have a real identity with LaMelo Ball healthy and sparking the offense, but the defense… maybe it gets better when Brandon Miller, Josh Green, and Richards are all healthy at once, but that could be a while. The Hornets have some games where they could pick up a win this week against the Pistons, Pacers, 76ers (without Embiid) and their NBA Cup opener against the Magic (without Banchero).
27. Portland Trail Blazers (3-5, LW 27). It sounds simple, but the Trail Blazers just need some of their core players — Deni Avdija, Jerami Grant, Scoot Henderson and Anfernee Simons — to start making shots. Portland is bottom five in the NBA in both eFG% and True Shooting percentage. On the bright side for Portland, the team has the best fourth quarter net rating of any team in the NBA so far this season, +14.7. Sure, they gave up huge leads to Oklahoma City and Phoenix, but those are elite teams. There have been positives with how the team has performed in fourth quarters and what that says about their grit.
28. Toronto Raptors (2-6, LW 25). There are positives for Raptors fans to cling to. For example, it’s good news no surgery is required for Scottie Barnes on his fractured orbital bone, he will be re-evaluated in two weeks. That could have been much worse. Then there is Gradey Dick of late, in his last four games he has scored 30, 31, 22 and 26 points, and now for the season is averaging 21.6 points a game shooing 38.3% from 3 on his 7.5 attempts a game. He has progressed faster than expected.
29. Washington Wizards (2-4, LW 28). The Wizards have been a surprisingly entertaining team to start the season, and there are some bright spots for Washington fans outside Jordan Poole raising his trade value. Bilal Coulibaly has taken a big step forward this season and is second on the team averaging 17.7 points and 5.8 assists a game, shooing 44% from 3. Bub Carrington has been a pleasant surprise and is averaging 10.3 points a game, and even Kyshawn George has shown some promise.
30. Utah Jazz (1-6, LW 29). Utah picked up its first win of the season, courtesy of Chicago, and now faces a talented but slumping Milwaukee team on Thursday (and open their NBA Cup play next Tuesday against Phoenix). The Jazz are last in the league in offense and to make matters worse Lauri Markkanen is missing time due to back spasms. Walker Kessler has bounced back this season averaging 9.7 points, 11.2 rebounds and 3 blocks a game, which is why his name has come up in trade rumors (there are a few teams around the league in search of a quality big man). Danny Ainge isn’t going to give Kessler away, but some team may be willing to meet his asking price.
