NBA Survival Guide: 5 breakout candidates who can make significant leaps

Each of these breakout candidates, one from each of the past five draft classes, is poised to take a significant step forward. Whether they’re already showing flashes of brilliance or still quietly developing, these players are ready to elevate their game — and contribute in major ways to their teams’ futures.

Brandon Miller, Charlotte Hornets

Drafted 2nd in 2023

Miller’s rookie season really breaks into two distinct parts. In his first 38 games, he averaged 14.7 points on 53.6 percent true shooting, which is solid for a rookie. Especially one being asked to find his footing on a struggling team like Charlotte. He was lethal at draining 3s off the catch, but fairly inconsistent in other departments.

Then, something shifted. Over his last 35 games, starting in late January, Miller turned it up a notch — 20.3 points per game, 56.4 percent true shooting. He played more minutes, had a higher usage rate, and his efficiency spiked across every area of the court when creating shots for himself. Check this out:

That’s a rookie figuring things out in real time. Miller was creating for himself, taking stronger angles to the rim, absorbing contact, and showing off a newfound confidence with his midrange fadeaways and deep pull-up 3s. By the end of the season, he looked like a legit go-to scorer.

But here’s where it gets really interesting: LaMelo Ball was out for the season starting in late January, right when Miller’s numbers started to pop. Coincidence? Probably not. Without LaMelo on the floor, Miller had more freedom to operate, and that’s where things could get tricky moving forward. We all know LaMelo’s a pass-first guard, and having a guy like that should make life easier for Miller, giving him cleaner looks and more assisted buckets. But if Miller is going to continue his growth as a playmaker and self-creator, there’s got to be some balance there.

Think about last season: When Miller played alongside LaMelo, he had the ball in his hands just 5.3 percent of the time. That’s Royce O’Neale territory. But when LaMelo was sidelined, that number jumped to 9.6 percent—basically Paul George levels. So, what happens when LaMelo comes back? Is he willing to let Miller cook? Because if he does, that could be the key to Miller’s next leap, and from a pure basketball standpoint, there’s no question Miller’s ready for it. The only question is how well he and LaMelo figure out how to coexist and maximize each other’s games.

Ryan Dunn, Phoenix Suns

Drafted 28th in 2024

Dunn was easily the best defensive prospect in the 2024 draft. At 6-foot-6 with a 7-foot-1 wingspan, he can switch across multiple positions, disrupt passing lanes, block shots — you name it. His defensive IQ is off the charts. Dunn flies around on defense, making pristine rotations, contesting shots at the rim, and generally making life miserable for opponents. In a league increasingly defined by versatile wing defenders, Dunn has the potential to be a lockdown guy on the Herb Jones level.

But the big question mark? His shooting. As a sophomore at Virginia, Dunn attempted just 35 3s in 34 games, hitting only 20 percent. That’s not just inconsistent — it’s borderline unplayable in today’s NBA. So, when the Suns grabbed him at 28th, there was understandable skepticism. You knew what you were getting defensively, but could he survive offensively?

Here’s the twist: In four preseason games with the Suns, Dunn has made 12 of his 27 attempts from beyond the arc. Small sample size, sure, but there are reasons for optimism. His form looks much smoother, especially with how he’s using his legs, and the fact that he’s taking shots more frequently shows a level of confidence that simply didn’t exist at Virginia. I spoke to scouts before the draft, and several insisted his shot had been reworked during pre-draft workouts. One executive even told me I’d regret ranking him in the 30s. After some rethinking and more digging, I moved him up to 16th. Even that could turn out to be too low if his jumper holds up.

If Dunn had shot even 35 percent from 3 on decent volume — not elite, just average — he’d have been a lottery pick. If he shoots the way he has in preseason, we’re talking top 10, maybe even top five. He’s that special defensively. And offensively, it’s not just the shooting. Dunn is a smart passer, a good screener, and an efficient finisher at the rim.

And here’s why this matters for Phoenix: Defense and depth were its biggest question marks coming into the season. Dunn doesn’t solve everything, but he can make a real impact on both fronts. If his shot holds up, he gives the Suns a versatile, two-way role player who can ease some of the load on their stars. Yes, Phoenix’s season still hinges on the health of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal. But if Dunn continues hitting jumpers? He could be the kind of supporting piece that raises their ceiling.

Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder

Drafted 12th in 2022

On the latest episode of The Kevin O’Connor Show, a listener named Jacob asked me: Aside from inexperience, what’s the biggest hurdle holding back the Thunder from winning a championship? I said the answer is a second superstar behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. We know what SGA is capable of. But Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren both underwhelmed in the postseason. Fair, considering their youth. But if a title is the expectation, then one of them will need to blossom.

Williams seems like the most probable candidate. This will be his third season, and he’s already shown flashes. But his biggest drawback in the playoffs was his reluctance to shoot 3s. He passed on some open looks off the catch, and was reluctant to pull-up off the dribble. He attempted under four per game all season. Things are changing this preseason though. Williams is firing away from 3, and has attempted 10 shots in 33 minutes of play.

If Williams keeps hitting 3-pointers off the dribble like the one above, it changes the complexion of what this Thunder team can be. Now, if Williams doesn’t take that next step? OKC is still fun, still young, but it’s probably stuck in the same “great, but not champions” category. Without that second star, the Thunder will run into a wall. But if Jalen levels up, we’re talking about a team that’s built to win now, not just in the future. If he doesn’t, we’re probably waiting another year or two before this team really breaks through.

Immanuel Quickley, Toronto Raptors

Drafted 25th in 2020 by the Knicks

Quickley’s trade to the Raptors last season unlocked a new level to his game. With the Knicks, Quickley was putting up solid numbers — 15 points and 2.5 assists per game — but after the trade to Toronto, those numbers jumped to 18.6 points and 6.8 assists. Quickley went from a Sixth Man to a starter, and his offensive role was amplified. In New York, Quickley was getting 41 touches per game and holding the ball for just 3.2 minutes of possession time. With the Raptors, those numbers skyrocketed to 75 touches and 6.2 minutes of possession per game. That’s nearly double the time to run the offense, make decisions, and create plays.

The Raptors rewarded Quickley with a five-year, $162.5 million contract, which says a lot about how they feel about him. They didn’t need to sign the extension when they did.

That extra volume explains the massive uptick in assists, and it’s also why he’s become such a critical piece for the Raptors. If Quickley can continue this trend, he has the potential to be a cornerstone in Toronto’s offense.

Deuce McBride, New York Knicks

Drafted 36th in 2021

New York’s decision to trade Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo for Karl-Anthony Towns reshapes its frontcourt, no doubt, but the ripple effects hit the backcourt just as hard. With DiVincenzo gone, the Knicks lost a clutch playoff scorer and someone who provided stability on both ends of the floor. So now, the question becomes: Who steps up? Enter Miles “Deuce” McBride. While smaller than DiVincenzo, McBride brings ferocious defense, a knockdown jumper, and dynamic shot creation that’s only grown since last season when the Knicks moved Quickley and RJ Barrett in a trade for OG Anunoby.

Over his final two months last season, McBride averaged 30 minutes per game, scoring just under 12 points while shooting 39 percent from 3. The Knicks felt comfortable moving Quickley and Barrett because they had faith in DiVincenzo and McBride — and now, they’re doubling down on Deuce by trading DiVincenzo as well.

The Knicks have plenty of players ahead of McBride in the rotation. Jalen Brunson will take the lead offensively, with Anunoby, Mikal Bridges, and Josh Hart working as versatile wings, and Towns anchoring the middle. But McBride is positioned to be a potential Sixth Man of the Year candidate. He’s proven the Knicks right once before. And now, with even more responsibility, Deuce needs to take another leap for New York to capitalize on its new-look roster.