Opening night is almost here. Contenders are taking stock, evaluating their rosters from top to bottom. Even the smallest changes — a new role for a key piece, the addition of a player, or the health of a veteran — could swing the pendulum between a season brimming with championship promise and a slow slide toward an inevitable early exit. For some, these factors will define the season.
Here are seven players who could alter the title odds by pushing a favorite over the top or turning an underdog into a real threat:
1. Naz Reid, Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota’s decision to trade Karl-Anthony Towns to New York isn’t just because of what Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo and a protected first bring in return. It’s about Naz Reid. Within the Timberwolves organization, there’s a belief that the gap between Towns and Reid is a lot smaller than some think.
“They think he’s pretty much 90 percent of what KAT did for them,” one Eastern Conference general manager said. “And they’re probably gonna be proven right.”
Towns is better in a vacuum and more proven as a four-time All-Star, but he’s about to turn 29 and is just beginning a four-year, $220.4 million deal. Reid is 25 and will make only $13.9 million coming off a season in which he won Sixth Man of the Year. In the minutes Reid shared with Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert, he averaged 19.8 points per 36 minutes on 45 percent shooting from 3, which are nearly identical numbers to what KAT did as the starter. Even if Reid isn’t as great as Towns individually, he’s made in the same mold as a big man who can drain 3s, create plays with the ball and effectively defend in different roles.
Randle brings something dramatically different than Towns and Reid as a bruising big man who can attack off the dribble and provide elite rebounding. Plus, he’s gone through spurts playing excellent defense, with the physicality to guard the interior and the quickness to slide on the perimeter. Randle has been a zero in his postseason career. But he doesn’t suck. He’s a two-time All-NBA player and now Minnesota will try to get the best out of him again.
The Timberwolves have more options to find their best lineups now, so that Edwards can always be optimized no matter the matchup. Everyone is rightfully talking about the Gobert-Randle lineup, which may lack spacing unless Randle is draining 3s. But they don’t need to go with that. Wolves head coach Chris Finch can roll with Gobert-Reid, giving them a similar look as last season. Or they can go with a small-ball look with four perimeter guys around Gobert, thanks to the DiVincenzo addition. They can go with Reid and Randle for more perimeter skill. Any one of the bigs could be alone out there for spurts too, giving Minnesota the ability to take any shape and dictate the way a playoff series could play out.
If the Timberwolves weren’t going to win it all last season, they never were with that core. Risks needed to be taken. That’s why, on draft night, Minnesota dealt a first-round swap in 2030 and one future first in 2031 for a spark plug/scoring point guard in Rob Dillingham. And that’s ultimately why the Towns trade was made too. It was the theme of the summer to recalibrate the team around Edwards by betting that Randle’s physicality, DiVincenzo’s shooting and Reid’s talent make them better.
2. Anthony Davis, Los Angeles Lakers
Many readers are probably wondering why the hell the Lakers are on this list when LeBron James is about to turn 40 and they got destroyed by the Nuggets in the playoffs for a second consecutive year. Fair. There are also plenty of other reasons to count out Los Angeles.
But the Lakers also just won 47 games with one of the NBA’s worst head coaches, and they’ve tweaked their system in a manner that has them looking modernized. The Lakers ranked 26th in handoffs per game last season, but under JJ Redick it looks like they’ll find themselves near the top of the NBA in that category. Through two preseason games, Synergy tracking data shows the Lakers have run 12 handoffs per game, which is a number that would have led the league last year.
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More ball- and body-movement could help players like Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura find easier buckets, and put young players like Dalton Knecht and Max Christie into positions to succeed that resemble their college roles. Even LeBron himself could embrace a more diverse set of actions, including as a screener and as an occasional small-ball center. But the greatest beneficiary of these changes being installed by Redick could be Anthony Davis.
“We’re going to empower him as much as he wants to be empowered,” Redick said on The Lowe Post. “If he wants to be first-team All-NBA and wants to be in the MVP conversation all year long, we’re going to empower him to do that.”
Davis was individually dominant last season, especially in the playoffs. But Redick wants to bring his game back toward the perimeter. Last season, he received only 4.9 elbow touches per game. Even Jakob Pöltl and Jalen Duren averaged more. But now he’s more frequently receiving the ball in that area of the floor, looking for chances to facilitate or attack the rim himself.
With the ability to make slick passes and attack off the dribble himself, Davis migrating to the perimeter could naturally create more space for this revised Lakers attack.
It’d be an additive bonus if Redick is successfully able to get AD to shoot. Though Redick has offered no specifics on his theory about how to fix it, Davis was firing away in his first preseason game by making one of his three triples plus his lone midrange attempt. That’s an irrelevant sample size of one exhibition game. But it’s at least encouraging to see Davis taking and making jumpers after the shot abandoned him ever since the Lakers won a championship in 2020. That year, he attempted 7.1 jump shots per game. Last season, he tried only 4.1 per game.
AD has never been a consistent shooter, even going back to his time in New Orleans. But he has soft touch near the rim and from the free-throw line. If Redick, one of the greatest shooters ever, is able to help AD find his jumper in his 30s, it’d transform how the entire Lakers half-court offense can operate. But even without it, a motion-based system could set up Davis, James and the rest of the Lakers to get back into championship contention.
3. Tyus Jones, Phoenix Suns
Tyus Jones had multiple offers for more than the veteran minimum, but Phoenix was the only team to promise him a starting spot, league sources said. So, Jones bet on himself. With the chance to lead a lineup of three All-Stars, he sees an opportunity to prove himself with more responsibility than ever.
The Suns had a point guard by committee last season. Jones changes that. He led the NBA in assist-to-turnover ratio for three consecutive seasons, totaling 1,226 assists to a measly 186 turnovers. As a true point guard, Jones brings a stabilizing presence that allows Devin Booker, Bradley Beal and Kevin Durant to shift into roles more suited to their strengths.
Booker can now operate more frequently as an off-ball scorer, leveraging his catch-and-shoot ability and dynamic slashing. Beal, who’s spent much of his career toggling between shooting guard and playmaker, can avoid being the primary facilitator and focus on getting cleaner looks. Durant, too, benefits from a point guard who won’t siphon away shots but can get him the ball in his sweet spots. Jones, a 39 percent 3-point shooter over the past three seasons, can also space the floor when one of the stars runs the show.
The Suns did good work overall this summer. Forward Ryan Dunn brings All-Defensive upside even as a rookie — seriously, and so far it appears his jumper is fixed so he’ll earn minutes. Center Oso Ighodaro has two-way abilities that could earn him early minutes as a rookie, too. And Mike Budenholzer was hired to make it all click better. If the stars stay healthy, Budenholzer will now have incredible lineup flexibility to tinker with, and Jones provides a steady hand he can turn to. There’s balance. For the Suns, that’s enough. They don’t need more firepower — they need clarity. With Jones, they might have found it.
4. Derrick White, Boston Celtics
Derrick White is one of those strange late-bloomer types. For many years, he’s been a ferocious defender who has a unique knack for blocking shots as a 6-foot-4 guard. But with the Spurs, he made only 34.4 percent of his 3s. Things changed in Boston though. Over the last two seasons with the Celtics he’s made 38.9 percent and that’s risen to 42.4 percent in the playoffs. White has become one of the NBA’s most lethal shooters. But he’s also a high-assist, low-turnover player who’s become a superb pick-and-roll creator. The numbers back it up: Boston generated 1.11 points per White-led pick-and-roll, ranking him in the 90th percentile league-wide.
Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown will always receive the most shots for Boston. But White belongs on this list of players who can swing the title odds because who’s to say he won’t get even better? What if White can help make the Celtics even heavier favorites? After all, White’s most significant progression happened in his late 20s. And just because he’s 30 doesn’t mean he won’t stop improving.
White logged 7.7 pick-and-rolls per game last season. Could that number rise a little bit? Might he take a couple more shots per game? The Celtics don’t need it. But with Kristaps Porziņģis sidelined to at least begin the season, the Celtics could need White to be one of the players to fill the void with more creation chances.
No matter what the Celtics ask of him, White’s year-to-year progress represents the reason for optimism that Boston could be even better this season. Tatum is only turning 27. Brown 28. And White might just be hitting his prime.
5. Naji Marshall, Dallas Mavericks
The Mavericks lost Tim Hardaway, Josh Green, and Derrick Jones. They were replaced with Klay Thompson, Naji Marshall, Quentin Grimes, and Spencer Dinwiddie. Even though Thompson has declined from his elite status, his shooting prowess still helps aid the flaw that plagued Dallas most in the NBA Finals.
But the rest of that group? It’s not quite obvious that the Mavericks are better. Take Marshall as a key example. Last season, he made 38.7 percent of his 3s with the Pelicans. But he made only 28.6 percent in his previous three seasons after making only 28.9 percent in three collegiate seasons.
Marshall offers more than just shooting; he’s a quirky creator off the dribble who could be used as a ball screener for Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving. But he needs to shoot to be a clear upgrade.
The others aren’t a certainty either. Grimes was really good during the 2022-23 season for the Knicks when he was playing consistently, but he hasn’t done much since. Dinwiddie was really good the last time he played with the Mavericks, but he contributed little with the Nets and Lakers.
Dallas should be better in large part due to Klay’s shooting ability replacing Hardaway, who was a negative for large stretches of last season including the playoffs. But the others, especially Marshall, need to be the best versions of themselves for the Mavericks to get back to the Finals.
6. Khris Middleton, Milwaukee Bucks
Health is everything for the Bucks. Ever since their 2021 championship, it’s been one setback after another. Brook Lopez’s back, Giannis Antetokounmpo’s calf, and Khris Middleton’s ongoing injuries. With an aging core, Milwaukee’s window to capitalize on Giannis’s prime is narrowing.
This month, Giannis and Damian Lillard look ready to roll. But Middleton is still sidelined, recovering from offseason procedures on both ankles. In-shape Dame will provide a star presence. And Giannis will keep being Giannis. But Middleton is the balancing piece — the player who takes over in the mid-range, spaces the floor and bails out the offense in crunch time.
Even at less than 100%, he averaged 24.7 points per game during the postseason, his highest mark since their 2021 championship run. The Bucks need that to translate first during the season so they can grab a high seed. And then during the playoffs. Milwaukee’s title hopes will require Middleton to be reliable and to drain shots like he’s done so often when it matters most.
7. Zach Edey, Memphis Grizzlies
For two years, Ja Morant would bring the ball up the floor and dribble into a bone-crushing screen set by Steven Adams. By more than double, Adams set the most total screens of any player for Morant, freeing up the guard for electric drives into the paint. Adams is gone now. But the Grizzlies found his successor on draft night: Zach Edey.
At 7-foot-3 and 299 pounds, Edey unlocks new possibilities for the Grizzlies as a huge lob target who can rim-run, inhale rebounds and overpower anyone in the post. In his preseason debut, he caught two lobs high above the basket, including one from Ja:
Edey is equipped with the behemoth size to do many of the things Adams did for Memphis. But he’s not a clone.
Grizzlies head coach Taylor Jenkins sees untapped potential in Edey, especially on the perimeter. After making over 70 percent of his free throws while showing soft touch on post-ups at Purdue, Edey has been given the green light to experiment with shooting 3s.
“He’s been pouring in the work. Pre-practice, post-practice, he’s coming in at night shooting,” Jenkins said. “Whether he’s trailing a play or he just happens to kind of move himself out there, I want him to feel like he has the green light.”
With a reliable jumper, Edey would elevate Memphis’ lineup flexibility and frontcourt depth. The Grizzlies could play five-out but retain interior size on the defensive end with Edey flanked by Jaren Jackson Jr.
Edey doesn’t need to shoot though. He made only one 3-pointer in four years at Purdue. The safest bet is his greatest impact will be made screening for Morant and then punishing smaller interior players. That’s why the Grizzlies got him: to hunt the mismatch.
