New Mexico State has something to play for on Saturday.
The Aggies (17-13, 10-7 Conference USA) currently sit in fourth place in the CUSA standings heading into the final regular-season games for the conference, one game behind Middle Tennessee and one game ahead of Kennesaw State. NM State faces Sam Houston (12-18, 5-12) at 1:30 p.m. Saturday and is coming off a 67-55 road victory against Louisiana Tech on Thursday.
The likely outcome is the Aggies clinching the No. 4 seed in next week’s CUSA Tournament in Huntsville, Ala., where quarterfinal games for seeds No. 3 through No. 6 will be played Thursday. However, a small possibility exists for NM State to earn a No. 3 seed.
Here are the tiebreaker rules:
- Head-to-head matchups
- Records against the team in first-place. If first-place can’t break the tie, then it would move down to second-place, third-place, etc. until the tie is broken.
- If two teams are tied for a position, then each team’s combined record against them would be used to break the tie (i.e., since Liberty and Jacksonville State are currently tied for first, the tie would be broken by using combined records against both Liberty and Jax State).
- Superior NET ranking
Here are the current CUSA standings, alongside games set for this Saturday:
- Liberty (24-6, 12-5, holds tiebreaker over Jacksonville State due to superior record against Middle Tennessee)
- Jacksonville State (20-10, 12-5)
- Middle Tennessee (20-10, 11-6)
- New Mexico State (17-13, 10-7)
- Kennesaw State (17-13, 9-8)
- Western Kentucky (17-13, 8-9, currently holds tiebreaker over Louisiana Tech due to going 1-2 against Liberty and Jax State, while LA Tech went 1-3 against them)
- Louisiana Tech (19-11, 8-9)
- UTEP (17-13, 7-10)
Games this Saturday: NM State at Sam Houston, FIU at MTSU, Liberty at WKU, KSU at Jax State, LA Tech at UTEP. The latter four start at 1 p.m., while the Aggies tip off against the Bearkats 30 minutes later.
Here are the scenarios for how NM State can earn the No. 3, No. 4 or No. 5 seeds:
Path to No. 3 seed
There’s a small chance the Aggies can earn a No. 3 seed, but it requires several things to go their way in a complex scenario.
NM State would have to beat Sam Houston on Saturday and would need FIU to beat MTSU, of course, but need three more outcomes. Jacksonville State would need to beat KSU, LA Tech would have to beat UTEP and Liberty would need to beat Western Kentucky. This would put KSU and LA Tech in a tie for fifth place, which the Aggies need because if the sole tiebreaker is each team’s record against the Owls, MTSU would win due to their sweep over KSU while NM State went 1-1 against it.
Since KSU and LA Tech would be tied, the tiebreaker would be combined records against the two teams. NM State is 2-2 against the Bulldogs and Owls while the Blue Raiders are 1-3, so the Aggies would win the tiebreaker and become the No. 3 seed.
This would put NM State in a matchup with LA Tech in the quarterfinals of the CUSA Tournament, a team it swept in the regular season.
Path to No. 4 seed
This path is simpler. If MTSU defeats FIU, the Aggies can’t finish higher than the No. 4 seed even if they beat Sam Houston. This is also the case if NM State loses to the Bearkats, but KSU also loses to Jax State.
Path to No. 5 seed
If the Aggies lose and the Owls win on Saturday, each would be 10-8 in conference play and tied for fourth place in CUSA’s standings.
In this scenario, Jax State can only be tied for first or finish second place because KSU needs to beat the Gamecocks to be tied for fourth place. If Liberty also defeats WKU, a tiebreaker between NM State and KSU would come down to its records against the Flames with the Owls prevailing due to going 1-1 against the Flames while the Aggies got swept.
KSU would still win a tiebreaker over NM State if Liberty and Jax State are tied for first (meaning the Hilltoppers defeat Liberty on Saturday) because the Owls went 2-2 against the Flames and Gamecocks while the Aggies went 1-3 against them.
The difference between the No. 4 and No. 5 seeds are irrelevant, though, because NM State would play KSU regardless in the quarterfinals.
Details for New Mexico State vs Sam Houston
Time: March 8, 1:30 p.m.
Location: Bernard Johnson Coliseum, Huntsville, Tex.
Network: ESPN+
Last matchup: NM State defeated Sam Houston 75-71 in Las Cruces on Jan. 2
