Just a couple of weeks ago, the biggest question the New York Knicks faced was, “How good can they be without a center?”
They got their center. Now the questions have become:
Are the Knicks better with Karl-Anthony Towns?
Can they win a title with him?
New York’s trade for Towns shocked the NBA — including Towns himself, who said he was “stunned” — with other general managers voting the Towns trade the most surprising move of the offseason in the annual GM survey.
This is a trade the New York’s front office had eyed for years — Towns was once the client of former agent turned Knicks president Leon Rose — but they gave up a lot to get him, and there are fit concerns, which leads to the above questions. Let’s break them down.
Are the Knicks better with Towns?
Yes.
For the simple reason that the Knicks were heading into the season without a center worth mentioning (at least until around Christmas when Mitchell Robinson is set to return from ankle surgery). Now they have an elite offensive big who is one of the better centers in the game. That’s a win.
How much better the Knicks got is the harder question to answer.
The Knicks’ offense got better, but their defense and depth took hits. Then there is the question of cultural fit — how well will Towns mesh with the gritty Villanova crew (minus one)/Tom Thibodeau culture in New York? Thibodeau coached Towns in Minnesota and had his frustrations with the big man out of Kentucky, but he also said several times in recent years that he would love to coach him again. Let’s take a wait-and-see attitude with the culture fit, this might work out better than some predict.
The one truth of this trade is that New York’s offense — already seventh in the NBA last season — improved.
We’ve seen in Towns’ limited preseason run what he can do for the Knicks offense — New York can play five-out now because of Towns’ ability to shoot the 3 (41.6% on more than five attempts a game last season) and that will open up driving lanes for Jalen Brunson and Mikal Bridges.
There are two key overlooked parts of this trade: Towns can take most bigs off the dribble and get to the rim on a spaced-out floor, and also he’s a good passer who will find cutters as the defense loads up to stop him. Towns can be a facilitator out of the high post in the way Isaiah Hartenstein was so successful for the Knicks last season — and we saw a little of that in the preseason already.
Expect the Knicks to have a top-five, maybe top-three offense this season. That will propel them to the top of the East — they should push Boston for the No. 1 seed.
The challenge for Towns is on defense, where he will be asked to play more drop coverage, which has never been his strength — Utah brought in Rudy Gobert as a rim protector next to him for a reason. The Knicks have quality wing defenders in Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby who can stay in front of guys and limit the attacks on the lane, but this is the NBA, nobody can stay in front of everybody, and rim protection is at a premium.
Towns is an improved defender and has had impressive moments — his defense, particularly bodying up Nikola Jokic, was critical to Minnesota advancing to the Western Conference Finals. On the other hand, Towns has not matched up well with Joel Embiid in the past — the 76ers will be a hurdle on the Knicks’ playoff path — and has had his rough playoff moments, all of which leads to the next question.
Can the Knicks win a title with Towns?
If everything goes right, sure. But when was the last time everything went right for a team? Boston will hoist championship banner number 18 in front of the Knicks on opening night mainly because they had the depth to withstand Kristaps Porzingis missing a chunk of the Finals with a foot/ankle injury that ultimately needed surgery.
Do the Knicks have that kind of margin for error?
New York heads into the season with three legitimate concerns — and Towns may help address one of them. At best.
First, New York needs more interior defense and that is not Towns strength, as noted above. He’s not a rim protector in the classic sense. The help filling this hole in the lineup hopefully re-enters the rotation around Christmas when Mitchell Robinson returns from ankle surgery. If he can stay healthy, Robinson can be the rim protector the Knicks need (although whether he can play the five next to Towns at the four remains to be seen, Thibodeau needs time to experiment with that).
Second is depth — New York’s bench got thinner with this trade when they had to send Donte DiVincenzo to Minnesota to get the deal done. This leaves Miles “Duece” McBride and guys on minimum contracts like Landry Shamet and Cameron Payne as the bench stars, at least until Robinson’s return.
This roster is set up for Thibodeau to run his starters into the ground and not have enough left for the postseason. It’s a legitimate concern. I predict they will finish the season as the No. 1 seed in the East, but will that come at too high a cost? Team president Leon Rose should not be done dealing, specifically searching for depth, although with the apron restrictions there is only so much he can do.
Finally, who is the secondary playmaker on this team after Brunson? Towns helps a little with that, as noted his passing is underrated and he can facilitate out of the post, but historically he’s more a big who creates for himself. The Knicks are betting on Bridges and McBride to fill that role on the perimeter — it’s a big ask but certainly possible. Bridges was just asked to be a primary shot creator in Brooklyn and held up well, but that was on a team without the pressure to win. The vibe will be different in New York.
Secondary shot creation may be the least of these three concerns, but if watching the last two NBA champions taught us anything, it should be that you cannot have too many shot-creators on the court at once, and the Knicks could be lacking in that department.
Whatever their flaws, the Knicks have to be mentioned as title contenders, even if it’s in a second tier (one can argue that everyone should be in a second tier after Boston).
Leon Rose has been right far more than he’s been wrong as the architect of these New York Knicks, but now he has pushed all his chips in the middle with Towns and Bridges. Now he — and Knicks fans — need the cards to break their way.
