Usually, an NFL team’s record against the spread trends back to .500 over the course of a season. Oddsmakers don’t let bettors keep winning on the best teams or against the worst teams, and they adjust the odds accordingly. The point spread is the great equalizer.
But one team this season keeps losing for bettors just about every week. There’s only one team in the NFL with only one win against the spread all season. The Tennessee Titans are 1-9 this season against the spread, according to Action Network. That’s even worse than Tennessee’s poor 2-8 overall record. Every other team has covered the spread at least twice. It’s not like there was a lot of faith in the Titans before the season. But they’ve failed to live up to even those low expectations.
Here’s a look at Week 12 of the NFL season from a betting perspective, with odds from BetMGM:
Thursday night: A Steelers letdown?
The Pittsburgh Steelers are clearly a better team than the Cleveland Browns. But it’s a tricky spot for the Steelers on Thursday night.
The Steelers are bound for a letdown after a massive win Sunday over the Baltimore Ravens. That tight win kept Pittsburgh in first place of the AFC North. Now they have to get up for a game against a bad Browns team on a short week. And for the Browns, if there’s one game that they could get up for, it’s the Steelers. Don’t forget the Browns beat the Ravens in Week 8. Against another elite division rival, in prime time and at home, we should get the best effort the Browns have. Whatever that’s worth. The Browns are 3.5-point underdogs.
Interesting underdog: Can the Colts pull off a big upset?
The Detroit Lions look very hard to beat. They’re coming off a 52-6 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars and are clearly the best team in football.
But 7.5 points is a lot to give the Indianapolis Colts, who looked a lot better last week in Anthony Richardson’s return to the lineup. They won at the New York Jets, which doesn’t count as a quality win this season, but Richardson looked a lot better. That gives the Colts hope. It will be hard for Indianapolis to keep up with Detroit, which has scored 52 points twice this season. But Colts +7.5 still seems like a big number.
Another underdog: 49ers might not have many chances left
The San Francisco 49ers are 5-5. They’re not out of the playoff race, but they have a difficult road to get there. The 49ers’ schedule the rest of the way is not easy, and there’s a big challenge Sunday at the Green Bay Packers. The Packers are 7-3 and a 2-point favorite vs. San Francisco.
The fact that the spread is under a field goal for a road team at the 7-3 Packers is a sign the 49ers still are getting some respect in the betting community. It’s also an indication that oddsmakers understand the 49ers are the more desperate team. It’s not quite a must-win game for San Francisco, but close.
Player prop of the week: Bo Nix passing yards
Bo Nix is on a roll. The Denver Broncos rookie quarterback has averaged 257.3 passing yards the past four games, and in every one of those games he has thrown for at least 215 yards. He’s improving each week. This week the Broncos face the Las Vegas Raiders, who have a below-average pass defense. They’re 26th in EPA (expected points added) allowed per dropback and 28th in success rate allowed per dropback, via RBSDM.com. Nix’s passing yardage total is 215.5. That’s not giving Nix enough credit for the roll he has been on.
Futures watch: A big NFC West showdown
The 49ers were the big favorite to win the NFC West. They still might get there, but it’s a four-team race with seven weeks to go. The Seattle Seahawks got back in the race by winning at the 49ers last week. They are 5-5 and still trail the 6-4 Arizona Cardinals but still have both games left against Arizona.
The first meeting is at Seattle, and the Seahawks are a 1-point underdog. It’s a massive game in the race. The Cardinals are a -120 favorite to win the NFC West. The Seahawks are all the way back at +550 to win the division. Those odds will look a lot different if Seattle wins at home Sunday.
Sunday night: Eagles get a good test
The Philadelphia Eagles have moved into the circle of trust this season. They’re one of the few teams you can easily envision winning a Super Bowl. The offense is filled with stars and the defense has come a long way in a short time.
But Sunday night won’t be easy. The Los Angeles Rams, 3-point home underdogs, are well-coached and fairly healthy. They were fairly healthy when they laid an egg against the Dolphins on Monday night a couple weeks ago, but they rebounded well last week with a win at New England. If the Eagles can pull off the win and cover at Los Angeles, it’ll reinforce that they’re the Detroit Lions’ only serious challenger in the NFC.
Monday night: Harbowl!
Monday night’s game features two of the top five or so coaches in the NFL. They just happened to grow up in the same house.
John Harbaugh’s Baltimore Ravens take on Jim Harbaugh’s Los Angeles Chargers. Both teams would be in the playoffs if the season ended today. Jim Harbaugh is back in the NFL after nine seasons with the University of Michigan, and he has had instant success. The 7-3 Chargers have a better record than the 7-4 Ravens, but the Ravens are 3-point road favorites. There’s a lot of respect for Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry and a talented Ravens team, but don’t sleep on the Chargers. They’re a very good team.
