Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups this week. Lines according to FanDuel Sportsbook (O/U = over/under). Record last week 8-5 (.615); season 115-64 (.642). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 5-8 (.385); season 95-82-2 (.537). Times Pacific. TV channels are Los Angeles local.
BEARS (4-7) AT LIONS (10-1)
Thursday, 9:30 a.m. TV: Channel 2 (CBS)
Line: Lions by 10½. O/U: 48½.
Chicago has been playing better lately, and Keenan Allen is getting more involved. The Bears should hang in for a while, but Detroit is better all around and figures to pull away in the second half.
Pick: Lions 31, Bears 20
GIANTS (2-9) AT COWBOYS (4-7)
Thursday, 1:30 p.m. TV: Channel 11 (FOX)
Line: Cowboys by 3½. O/U: 37½.
The Dallas defense is getting a little healthier and quarterback Cooper Rush has done a respectable job. The Giants look like they’re tanking. Better chance with Drew Lock than injured Tommy DeVito.
Pick: Cowboys 20, Giants 16
DOLPHINS (5-6) at PACKERS (8-3)
Thursday night, 5:20 p.m. TV: Channel 4 (NBC)
Line: Packers by 3½. O/U: 47½.
Miami has won three in a row since the return of Tua Tagovailoa, so the Dolphins will make this interesting. But a prime time game at Lambeau Field with that familiar cold weather on tap? Go with Green Bay.
Pick: Packers 28, Dolphins 24
RAIDERS (2-9) AT CHIEFS (10-1)
Friday, 10 a.m. TV: Amazon Prime Video
Line: Chiefs by 12½. O/U: 42½.
The Chiefs have been more lucky than good lately, and very easily could have lost their last three. That said, they know how to win. The Raiders defense is OK, but the Chiefs wake up a bit.
Pick: Chiefs 30, Raiders 21
CHARGERS (7-4) AT FALCONS (6-5)
Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: Channel 2 (CBS)
Line: Chargers by 1½. O/U: 48½.
The Chargers are coming off a disappointing home loss to Baltimore, and their offense went flat in the second half. Still, they should be able to handle the Falcons, who have lost two in a row.
Pick: Chargers 24, Falcons 21
STEELERS (8-3) AT BENGALS (4-7)
Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket
Line: Bengals by 2½. O/U: 47½.
Jameis Winston looked good against that Pittsburgh defense in the snow last week. This is a division game and should be close, but the Steelers find a way to rebound from a loss and come out on top.
Pick: Steelers 27, Bengals 24
TEXANS (7-5) AT JAGUARS (2-9)
Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket
Line: Texans by 4½. O/U: 43½.
The Texans aren’t playing great, and quarterback C.J. Stroud doesn’t look as good as he was last year, and part of that falls to the offensive line. Detroit just put up 52 points on the Jaguars.
Pick: Texans 24, Jaguars 20
CARDINALS (6-5) AT VIKINGS (9-2)
Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket
Line: Vikings by 3½. O/U: 44½.
Seattle might have put a blueprint on tape of how to beat the physical Cardinals. Arizona couldn’t run it last week and Kyler Murray was under intense pressure. Minnesota has pass rushers who can hit home.
Pick: Vikings 27, Cardinals 23
COLTS (5-7) AT PATRIOTS (3-9)
Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket
Line: Colts by 2½. O/U: 42½.
Two young quarterbacks. Anthony Richardson does damage with his legs but isn’t accurate enough. Drake Maye is playing well for the Patriots but New England is short on weapons.
Pick: Colts 24, Patriots 20
SEAHAWKS (6-5) AT JETS (3-8)
Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket
Line: Seahawks by 1½. O/U: 41½.
Long flight for the Seahawks, although they’re coming off back-to-back division wins so they’re riding high. Seattle can run it and has some talented receivers. Nobody has much faith in the Jets anymore.
Pick: Seahawks 24, Jets 20
TITANS (3-8) AT COMMANDERS (7-5)
Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket
Line: Commanders by 5½. O/U: 44½.
Titans quarterback Will Levis did a solid job for much of last week’s game. Despite losing three in a row, the Commanders have talent and rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels should prevail at home.
Pick: Commanders 27, Titans 20
RAMS (5-6) AT SAINTS (4-7)
Sunday, 1:05 p.m. TV: Channel 11 (FOX)
Line: Rams by 3. O/U: 49½.
When he gets some time, Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford can still pick apart a defense, and he’s got excellent receiving weapons. The L.A. defensive line will be a big factor in this matchup.
Pick: Rams 27, Saints 23
BUCCANEERS (5-6) AT PANTHERS (3-8)
Sunday, 1:05 p.m. TV: NFL Ticket
Line: Buccaneers by 5½. O/U: 46½.
The Buccaneers are getting their swag back (see Baker Mayfield’s “Tommy Cutlets” celebration). Mike Evans’ return is big for them. The Panthers have looked better lately.
Pick: Buccaneers 28, Panthers 17
EAGLES (9-2) AT RAVENS (8-4)
Sunday, 1:25 p.m. TV: Channel 2 (CBS)
Line: Ravens by 3. O/U: 51½.
The Ravens defense is No. 1 against the run and dead last against the pass. The Eagles can kill you both ways, and Saquon Barkley is on an MVP pace. Philadelphia defense is outstanding.
Pick: Eagles 28, Ravens 23
49ERS (5-6) AT BILLS (9-2)
Sunday, 5:20 p.m. TV: Channel 4 (NBC)
Line: Bills by 6½. O/U: 44½.
The Bills are rested after off week, so they’ve gotten healthier and have had a chance to self-scout. They should be able to run it on this San Francisco defense and take some weight off Josh Allen’s shoulders.
Pick: Bills 28, 49ers 20
BROWNS (3-8) AT BRONCOS (7-5)
Monday, 5:15 p.m. TV: ESPN
Line: Broncos by 5½. O/U: 41½.
This should be a low-scoring game. Cleveland’s defense did a great job against Pittsburgh. Denver’s defense is really tough too. With the way Bo Nix has been playing, go with Denver at home.
Pick: Broncos 23, Browns 18
This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.
