Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups this week. Lines according to FanDuel Sportsbook (O/U = over/under). Record last week 14-2 (.875); season 177-79 (.691). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 9-7 (.536); season 135-119-2 (.532). Times Pacific. TV channels are Los Angeles local.
Cleveland Browns (3-13) at Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
Saturday, 1:30 p.m. TV: Channel 7 (ABC), ESPN
Line: Ravens by 17½. O/U: 42½.
The AFC North is within reach, so the Ravens are going pedal to the metal. It’s going to be cold and that home crowd will be amped. Dorian Thompson-Robinson or Bailey Zappe versus Lamar Jackson?
Pick: Ravens 31, Browns 13
Cincinnati Bengals (8-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
Saturday, 5 p.m. TV: Channel 7 (ABC), ESPN
Line: Bengals by 1½. O/U: 48½.
There’s something at stake for both teams. The Bengals are fighting to keep their longshot playoff hopes alive. The Steelers are just playing for seeding and they’ve lost three in a row..
Pick: Bengals 24, Steelers 20
Carolina Panthers (4-12) at Atlanta Falcons (8-8)
Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: Channel 2 (CBS)
Line: Falcons by 7½. O/U: 48½.
Until they ran into the Buccaneer buzz saw, the Panthers were playing better. Atlanta is more explosive with Michael Penix at quarterback than Kirk Cousins, and the Falcons have a chance to win the NFC South.
Pick: Falcons 28, Panthers 20
New Orleans Saints (5-11) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7)
Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: Channel 11 (FOX)
Line: Buccaneers by 13½. O/U: 43½.
The Buccaneers need to wrap up the NFC South so they have a fire under them. The Saints tend to give Tampa Bay problems but New Orleans has no offense and this shouldn’t be that close.
Pick: Buccaneers 31, Saints 17
Washington Commanders (11-5) at Dallas Cowboys (7-9)
Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket
Line: Commanders by 4½. O/U: 44½.
The Commanders are in the playoffs, but they have to keep their rookie QB going and get Terry McLaurin involved again. It really hurts Dallas that CeeDee Lamb is done for the season. The visitors have incentive.
Pick: Commanders 30, Cowboys 17
Chicago Bears (4-12) at Green Bay Packers (11-5)
Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket
Line: Packers by 9½. O/U: 40½.
Chicago tends to dig holes for itself before starting to throw the ball all over the place and at least make it interesting. The Packers are playing for seeding but that doesn’t matter as much in the NFC this season.
Pick: Packers 31, Bears 23
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12) at Indianapolis Colts (7-9)
Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket
Line: Colts by 5½. O/U: 45½.
That was a really ugly loss for the Colts in New York, with Giants quarterback Drew Lock picking them apart. Jacksonville is coming off a decent win over the Titans. This one is purely for pride.
Pick: Colts 20, Jaguars 17
Buffalo Bills (13-3) at New England Patriots (3-13)
Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket
Line: Bills by 2½. O/U: 38½.
Buffalo has been a good landing spot for backup QB Mitch Trubisky, and he should do fine against the Patriots. Drake Maye seems to have a bright future in New England, and the coach needs to hang on to his job.
Pick: Patriots 23, Bills 21
New York Giants (3-13) at Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)
Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket
Line: Eagles by 3. O/U: 38½.
How much do the Eagles play Saquon Barkley? The rushing record isn’t as important as keeping him healthy, and he got his 2,000 yards. Eric Dickerson’s record survives, and the Eagles keep rolling.
Pick: Eagles 27, Giants 20
Houston Texans (9-7) at Tennessee Titans (3-13)
Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket
Line: Titans by 1½. O/U: 38½.
Davis Mills is a pretty good backup quarterback for Houston and he has experience. The Titans have lost five in a row, even though they have been close in several of those. Division game so could be tight.
Pick: Texans 24, Titans 20
Seattle Seahawks (9-7) at Los Angeles Rams (10-6)
Sunday, 1:25 p.m. TV: Channel 11 (FOX)
Line: Seahawks by 5½. O/U: 38½.
The Rams have locked up the NFC West, so they’ll likely lean on backups. There’s still seeding at stake, so that’s something. Seattle is going to want to finish strong and that might be enough to tip the scales.
Pick: Seahawks 24, Rams 20
Los Angeles Chargers (10-6) at Las Vegas Raiders (4-12)
Sunday, 1:25 p.m. TV: Channel 2 (CBS)
Line: Chargers by 5½. O/U: 41½.
The Chargers might know their seeding before kickoff. If so, surely they will rest Justin Herbert. They’ll probably rest J.K. Dobbins, too. But considering the shape of the Raiders, the visitors might still win.
Pick: Chargers 20, Raiders 17
San Francisco 49ers (6-10) at Arizona Cardinals (7-9)
Sunday, 1:25p.m. TV: NFL Ticket
Line: Cardinals by 4½. O/U: 48½.
As the Rams can attest, the Cardinals play hard and they’re a physical team. The 49ers made a strong showing in the shootout with Detroit, but we could see a lot of Josh Dobbs at quarterback.
Pick: Cardinals 28, 49ers 20
Kansas City Chiefs (15-1) at Denver Broncos (9-7)
Sunday, 1:25 p.m. TV: NFL Ticket
Line: Broncos by 9½. O/U: 39½.
In all likelihood, the Broncos are going to be facing Kansas City’s JV squad, and Carson Wentz on almost no game reps doesn’t inspire much confidence. Denver can secure a spot in the playoffs with a win.
Pick: Broncos 21, Chiefs 17
Miami Dolphins (8-8) at New York Jets (4-12)
Sunday, 1:25 p.m. TV: NFL Ticket
Line: Dolphins by 1½. O/U: 39½.
With the Denver game going on at the same time, Miami still will have a chance to make the playoffs at kickoff. The Jets are in disarray, having lost six of seven. Go with the team that has something at stake.
Pick: Dolphins 27, Jets 23
Minnesota Vikings (14-2) at Detroit Lions (14-2)
Sunday, 5:20 p.m. TV: Channel 4 (NBC)
Line: Lions by 2½. O/U: 56½.
The Lions have a ton of ways to score, and they’re never truly out of a game, but they are so banged up on defense that it could catch up to them. Minnesota is quietly hitting its stride with Sam Darnold.
Pick: Vikings 34, Lions 31
This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.
