NHC forecast: Tropical Storm Rafael heading near Texas. See path on hurricane tracker

Tropical Storm Rafael is expected to strengthen into a hurricane before making landfall in Cuba Wednesday.

After that, Rafael will move into the Gulf of Mexico. As current forecasts show the storm moving toward the northern Gulf Coast, Texas may feel some impacts, even without a landfall.

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A tropical storm watch has been issued for the lower and middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

Tropical storm conditions could reach the Gulf Coast on Wednesday. Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches could reach those areas during the middle to later part of the week.

Tropical Storm Rafael: What you need to know

• Location: 80 miles south-southwest of Montego Bay, Jamaica

• Maximum sustained winds: 60 mph

• Movement: northwest at 13 mph

• Pressure: 993 mb

• Next advisory: 10 a.m.

How strong is Tropical Storm Rafael and where is it going?

At 6 a.m. CST, the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 78.4 West.

Rafael is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph. A generally northwestward motion is anticipated over the next few days. On the forecast track, the storm is expected to move near Jamaica this morning, be near or over the Cayman Islands tonight, and be near or over western Cuba on Wednesday.

➤ Tracker, satellite images of Tropical Storm Rafael

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph, with higher gusts.

Steady to rapid intensification is forecast over the next 24 to 36 hours, and Rafael is forecast to become a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean near the Cayman Islands with further strengthening before it makes landfall in Cuba.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb.

Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Rafael

Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts. 

➤ Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Rafael

Where will Tropical Storm Rafael make landfall?

“The highest probability of landfall is along the central Louisiana coast,” according to AccuWeather.

“However, since steering breezes may change a bit late this week and this weekend due to the approach of a non-tropical storm from the south-central U.S., there is a wide window as to where landfall will occur.

“That landfall potential zone extends from the Florida Panhandle to the Texas coast.”

See Tropical Storm Rafael Texas impact

“The good news is that while the Rafael may well enter the Gulf as a hurricane mid-week, there is very little chance of the storm reaching land as a hurricane,” said Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist with WeatherTiger. Truchelut is a Florida meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network.

Heavy rainfall is expected in parts of the Western Caribbean, including Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Rafael is then projected to strengthen into a hurricane Tuesday evening as it travels northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Large portions of the Gulf Coast, from Texas to Florida, are likely to see heavy rainfall as well.

Texas and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States may see impacts from Rafael during the middle to latter part of the week. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys.

Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Tropical Storm Rafael

1. Rafael is forecast to be near hurricane intensity when it passes near or over the Cayman Islands by tonight where damaging hurricane-force winds, a dangerous storm surge, and destructive waves are expected. Rafael should reach western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. A hurricane warning is in effect for this region, where a dangerous storm surge and destructive waves are also expected.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica through early this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Lower and Middle Florida Keys beginning late Wednesday or Wednesday night.

3. It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast. Residents in this area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast.

4. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the Western Caribbean through early Thursday, including the islands of Jamaica and the Caymans, along with southern and western portions of Cuba. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible along the higher terrain in Jamaica and Cuba. Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States mid to late week.

Current forecast: How strong could Tropical Storm Rafael get?

• As of 4 a.m.: 60 mph

• 12 hours: 70 mph

• 24 hours: 80 mph

• 36 hours: 90 mph

• 48 hours: 90 mph

• 60 hours: 90 mph

• 72 hours: 85 mph

• 96 hours: 70 mph

• 120 hours: 50 mph

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The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: Tropical Storm Rafael strengthening to hurricane. Is Texas in its path?