DETROIT — In his comments following a 48-42 loss to Buffalo on Sunday, Lions coach Dan Campbell acknowledged that his decision to attempt an onside kick while trailing by 10 points and a full 12 minutes remaining in the game did not work out.
Some had deemed the move to be risky and reckless and analytically unsound. It happens often with Campbell, who is known for an aggressiveness that, somehow, often finds himself at odds with both old-school, conservative football minds and modern number crunchers.
His critics found “I told you so” solace in his admission, although it wasn’t his strategy he was saying was regrettable, just the outcome of the play — Buffalo’s Mack Hollins grabbing the bouncing ball on the fly and returning it 38 yards to the Lions 5-yard line.
“Obviously, now sitting there in hindsight, with them taking it down to the [five] yard line, yeah, I wish I hadn’t done that,” Campbell said. “But it is what it is.”
And it isn’t changing.
In fact, it will likely increase as injuries continue to decimate the Lions roster — the latest being star running back David Montgomery likely lost for the season with a torn MCL in his knee.
The most telling insight into Campbell’s thinking came later in the press conference, when he brushed off the excuse that injuries to the Lions defense — which lost three more players Sunday to go with 15 previously on Injured Reserve — was the reason they lost to the Bills.
Campbell said it isn’t in his thoughts.
“I think much more about finding ways to win games,” Campbell said.
Campbell has become the NFL’s most intriguing coach because of that philosophy right there — he is constantly trying to find ways to win games.
All coaches are, of course. Campbell just takes it to the extreme with a combination of science (analytics) and art (his feel for the flow of the game). Mostly it’s about control, and Campbell wants as much of it as possible.
Campbell knows the numbers, but he isn’t married to them, dominated by them or afraid of them. He seems to understand the inherent problem with analytics, especially in a game such as football with myriad variables.
The likelihood of success from many past situations does not necessarily apply to a specific situation. The percentages of, say, converting a fourth and three per the NFL aggregate is one thing, the percentage of, say, Kansas City going for it with Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce against a tiring defense or a third-string middle linebacker is another.
While Campbell is loath to acknowledge any deficiency on his team, one of the reasons he went for it so often on fourth down in recent years was because the Lions offense was far superior to the Lions defense. Better to have Jared Goff and Co. determine things.
It’s why the decision on Sunday wasn’t a dumb one, just a different one. The Lions’ M.A.S.H. unit defense appeared to be incapable of stopping the Bills and Josh Allen, especially early in drives when Buffalo could stretch the secondary and expose Detroit’s particularly vulnerable linebackers.
To that point in the game, they’d forced one Buffalo punt in nine possessions. Otherwise, the closest they had come to stopping the Bills was a couple of field goals closer to the end zone. Any feel for the game suggested that kicking it deep and getting a three-and-out was a low probability. Field position didn’t matter that much. Even if Campbell’s gamble didn’t pay off, a typical onside kick results in recovery around midfield. Allen would set up there. Campbell was giving up 25 to 35 yards of field position for the chance to steal a possession.
“I thought we’d get possession,” Campbell said. “I thought we would get that ball.”
That’s how he sees things. That’s how he will continue to see things.
The lack of Montgomery will only accentuate this. If Campbell had his full and loaded roster — which no team in the war of attrition known as the NFL gets, mind you — he might very well play the game in a more traditional manner.
Kick it into the endzone and let Aiden Hutchinson, Levi Onwuzurike, Marcus Davenport, Alim McNeill and so on get after Josh Allen. All those guys were hurt though. As such, conceding that Allen would gain 30 yards early in the drive was a reasonable trade-off. Instead he got burnt by a wild bounce of the ball and an excellent play by Hollins.
Even still, Detroit had a chance at a final onside kick and potential miracle comeback in the end.
So Campbell tried to win the game with whatever means he had at his disposal.
Now, with Montgomery’s injury leaving him with one fewer reliable offensive weapon, it stands to reason that Campbell will be more aggressive — on fourth down, with trick plays or by various strategies.
Consider the Lions scored Sunday on a pass to offensive lineman Dan Skipper, who had already declared himself eligible four times in the game only to never actually run a route until the fifth.
With Campbell, it’s always something because something can mean everything and winning the game — not the postgame analysis — is the only thing.
