Odds chart shows painful improbability of 49ers’ losses to Cards, Rams

Odds chart shows painful improbability of 49ers’ losses to Cards, Rams originally appeared on NBC Sports Bay Area

Despite their Week 4 win over the New England Patriots, there is little solace to be found in the 49ers’ recent play after disappointing losses to the Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals on either side of that victory.

Just two weeks after squandering a double-digit lead over the Rams at SoFi Stadium, the 49ers did the same thing against another NFC West foe in their 24-23 loss to the Cardinals on Sunday at Levi’s Stadium.

It was the second time in three weeks San Francisco lost a game where it had an 85-percent chance of winning halfway through the fourth quarter, as Kyle Posey of Niners Nation pointed out.

The 49ers took a 23-10 lead over the Cardinals into halftime and then failed to score any points in the second half, allowing Arizona to storm back and take the lead thanks in part to a costly fourth-quarter Jordan Mason fumble in the red zone.

That play, which Arizona recovered, dropped San Francisco from an 85.3-percent win probability to a 65.9-percent win probability with 6:20 left to play, according to ESPN’s chart. And from there, that number only continued to decrease until the odds were in the Cardinals’ favor.

The ESPN win-probability chart from San Francisco’s 27-24 loss to Los Angeles in Week 3 is frustratingly similar.

The fact that both devastating losses came within their own division makes things even worse — and the three-week run even earned a place in franchise history.

The 49ers now enter a Week 6 showdown against the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday night at Lumen Field with a losing record at 2-3, and these odds charts show they very easily could be 4-1 through five games.

Just like they did after their brutal loss to the Rams, the 49ers will need to bounce back in a big way as they face another divisional rival.