Ohio State (6-1) is defeating opponents by an average margin of 31 points (#2 in FBS) while ranking Top 10 nationally on both sides of the ball in success rate, EPA/play and points per scoring opportunity. The only statistical area of weakness is OSU is allowing a 64% completion rate, which ranks 108th nationally. Ohio State is facing the second-fewest number of deep pass attempts in the country, with just 7.2% of passes defended occurring 20+ yards downfield. The Buckeyes are in the midst of a challenging three game mid-season stretch against @Oregon (32-31 L), Nebraska (21-17 W) and this weekend @Penn State.
The Nittany Lions (7-0) have cruised through the first half with their closest victory being a Week 7, 33-30 comeback win over @USC. Despite it being a close affair their decision over USC still came with an 86%-win expectancy, with each of their other six wins carrying perfect 100%-win expectancies. While PSU’s offense ranks third in success rate, eighth in EPA/play and ninth in 3-and-out%, they are also 92nd in yards per successful play and 81st in explosiveness. Defensively Penn State has been nearly flawless, ranking 3rd in SP+, but they’re only averaging a 6% overall sack rate (59th) and 17% sacks-per-pressure rate in addition to allowing 11.0 yards per successful rush.
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Game details and how to watch Ohio State @ Penn State
· Date: Saturday, November 2, 2024
· Time: 12:00 PM EST
· Site: Beaver Stadium
· City: University Park, PA
· TV/Streaming: FOX
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Game odds for Ohio State @ Penn State
The latest odds as of Wednesday morning:
The big game of the weekend opened OSU (-3) but has since added the pivotal hook and is (-3.5) across the board at time of publishing. You could get Ohio State at -162 on the moneyline at open, with the best price at the moment trade at -175. Penn State dropped at +136 but is almost uniformly +150 right now. The uncertainty surrounding PSU QB Drew Allar’s health has caused the game total to drop from 48 to a low of 45.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“With Penn State strong on both sides of the ball and Ohio State looking mortal over the last two games against Oregon and Nebraska, I lean the Nittany Lions with the +3.5 points. I’m also cautiously optimistic that Allar plays, which I’m factoring into the decision.”
Listen to the Bet the Edge podcast as hosts Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick provide listeners with sharp actionable insight, market analysis and statistical data to help bettors gain more information before placing their wagers.
BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship
Line movement (Last Week to Now)
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Georgia +350 to +325
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Oregon +500 to +450
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Texas A&M +3000 to +2200
Highest Ticket%
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Ohio State 14.5%
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Texas 12.0%
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Georgia 11.1%
Highest Handle%
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Ohio State 18.9%
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Georgia 17.0%
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Texas 11.7%
Biggest Liabilities
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Ohio State
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Tennessee
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Colorado
Quarterback matchup for Ohio State @ Penn State
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Ohio State: Hard to argue with QB Will Howard’s decision to transfer from Kansas State to OSU, as he currently helms the nation’s ninth-ranked SP+ offense for a Top 5 national title contending program. He’s completing a scintillating 74% of his throws and has a decorated fleet of wideouts to work with. The Buckeyes’ pass game ranks second in success rate and sixth in EPA/dropback despite throwing just 8.9% of passes 20+ yards downfield (128th). Howard’s 79th percentile PFF passing grade is the highest mark of his five-year career, with the previous best being 72.7%.
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Penn State: Under ordinary circumstances five-star QB Drew Allar would be under center, however Allar sustained a knee injury which has left his availability for this game in question. Enter QB Beau Pribula (6’2/206) who has completed 29-of-44 career passes (65%) for 249 yards, 7.9 yards per attempt and a 7-to-1 ratio. Pribula’s calling card is his legs though, rushing for 468 yards for 6.0 YPC and seven more touchdowns on the ground, for a career total of 14 despite being a backup up until Allar went down last week against Wisconsin. Despite limited reps, Pribula’s 88th% PFF offensive grade indicates he could be a credible fill-in if called upon.
Trends & recent stats for the Buckeyes and the Nittany Lions
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Ohio State has thrown for 1,987 passing yards in seven games, 20th-most in the FBS. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 175 passing yards per game, which ranks 18th-best in the country.
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Generational freshman WR Jeremiah Smith has gained 40+ yards on 5 of his 35 receptions, 4th-most among Power Four wideouts. Fellow freshman Alabama WR Ryan Williams ranks #1 with 20% of his catches (7-of-35) being explosive 40+ yard plays.
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Penn State TE Tyler Warren has secured ten, 3rd down receptions, most among B10 tight ends, in addition to being targeted in the red zone seven times, second-most in the Big Ten.
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PSU leads the Power Four in red zone yards per target, accruing 220 receiving yards on 26 targets for an 8.5 YPT average. UCF ranks last with 30 receiving yards on 15 red zone targets (2.0).
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