(Bloomberg) — A bearish tone is taking hold in the market for interest-rate options, suggesting that bond traders are bracing for Treasury yields to surge anew in the coming weeks.
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There has been steady demand for bearish hedges using Treasury-option put structures in January contracts on 10-year notes, which expire Dec. 27. Positioning has also been building over the past couple of days in the February options, which expire Jan. 24, the week of President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration.
Open interest, or the amount of outstanding positions held by traders, has been building specifically between the 107.50 and 109.50 put strikes in the January and February options. Those levels target a 10-year yield range of approximately 4.45% to 4.75%, relative to roughly 4.3% now. The upper bound of that span would push the yield above its 2024 high of about 4.74%, touched in April.
On Tuesday, an even more bearish position traded, targeting a yield as high as 4.9%, for a premium of $2.5 million. The benchmark yield hasn’t been that high in more than a year.
The wagers are a reminder that even though yields have surrendered the brunt of their post-election advance, investors are well aware of the potential for the so-called Trump trade to gain traction again. The premise of that trade for months has been that his policies including steeper tariffs would quicken inflation and push yields higher. Treasuries fell modestly on Tuesday, bumping up 10-year yields slightly, after Trump threatened to place additional tariffs on US trade partners.
Along with Trump’s first few day’s in office next month, a couple of other events ahead will be key for these options bets. First off, next week’s report on November job figures is projected to show a big jump in employment from the prior month.
Then there’s the Dec. 18 Federal Reserve policy announcement. Traders see it as a coin toss as far as whether officials will cut interest rates by another quarter-point or stand pat amid signs of economic resilience.
Meanwhile, in the cash market, bearish positioning has been growing, according to a survey of JPMorgan Chase & Co. clients, who are now the most short in a month.
Here’s a rundown of the latest positioning indicators across the rates market:
