Oregon (9-0) remains undefeated, gaining momentum weekly following narrow wins in their first two games of the season against Idaho and Boise State. Since then, the Ducks crushed @Oregon State, @UCLA and Michigan State by a total score of 114-37 and have re-established themselves as a program to be feared in Big Ten play. While the Ducks’ offense ranks 4th in success rate and 7th in EPA/play, they are not stretching the field like last year, ranking 117th averaging 4.5 yards per completion and 93rd in yards per successful rush. Defensively their secondary is excellent, but OU is certifiably soft on the ground ranking 99th in EPA/rush and 89th in yards per successful rush.
Maryland (4-4) opened 3-1 with wins over UConn and @UVA in addition to a 27-24 loss to Michigan State where Maryland only had a 10%-win expectancy. Though they dropped a 42-28 decision to undefeated Indiana, the Terps actually had the smallest margin of defeat of any team Indiana has played this season, which is a feat unto itself. They got outclassed by Northwestern who leveled UM 37-10, before the Terps bounced back to squeeze out a 29-28 win over USC. HC Mike Locksley’s offense is a pass-oriented group that ranks top-20 in both passing rate and completion rate (68.4%). A linebacker group that ranks 7th in havoc rate bolsters a credible run defense that slots in at 13th in yards per rush and 19th in yards after contact allowed.
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Game Details and How to watch Maryland @ Oregon
· Date: Saturday, November 9, 2024
· Time: 7:00 PM EST
· Site: Autzen Stadium
· City: Eugene, OR
· TV/Streaming: BTN
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Game odds for Maryland @ Oregon
The latest odds as of Friday morning courtesy of BetMGM:
Oregon opened as a -26.5 favorite, but we’ve seen that number move as low as -23.5. The Moneyline started at -3,200 and has improved slightly to -3,000 in most places, while Maryland opened at +1,400 and is available anywhere from +1,200 to +1,500. Game total has ticked up since opening at 57 to the 57.5/58.5 range.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“With Oregon holding opponents to 14 points or less in 6-of-9 contests, and having the benefit of playing in the contentious Autzen Stadium conditions, I don’t think Maryland can run the ball well enough to open up the passing game against OU. I’m backing Maryland to go Under their 16.5 Team Point Total.”
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BetMGM College Football Insights: National Championship
Line movement (Last Week to Now)
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Ohio State +450 to +350
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Miami +1800 to +1100
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Indiana +5000 to +3500
Highest Ticket%
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Ohio State 14.2%
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Texas 11.6%
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Georgia 10.9%
Highest Handle%
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Ohio State 18.5%
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Georgia 16.9%
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Texas 11.5%
Quarterback matchup for Maryland @ Oregon
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Oregon: Dillon Gabriel is in the midst of his sixth collegiate campaign, amassing an impressive 17,530 passing yards and 144-to-31 ratio over his illustrious career. He is completing 74.8% of his throws (#1 in FBS) for 9.3 YPA and a 19-to-5 ratio for the still undefeated Ducks, but his 6.9 ADOT is the lowest average target depth among qualifying signal callers. The short-range passing game emphasis accounts for Oregon’s uncharacteristically low 15.9% explosive pass rate that ranks 80th in FBS. With Oregon currently sporting a crisp 52% passing completion rate (5th in FBS), Gabriel should have little trouble moving the ball through the air against Maryland, despite losing his top WR Tez Johnson for the remainder of the regular season.
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Maryland: Billy Edwards Jr. beat out four-star NC State transfer QB MJ Morris for the starting gig and has run with the job, completing a laudable 69.5% of his throws for 2,314 pass yards and a 13-to-6 ratio while recording an 84.1 PFF offensive grade that ranks as the 18th best mark among P4 quarterbacks. Edwards has been getting the ball out of his hands in a brisk 2.28s on average, which is the second quickest release time in the country. Edwards is leading a rather conservative Terps passing attack that ranks 118th in explosive pass rate, but also 31st with a 1.8% interception rate that rarely puts their defense in a compromising position.
Betting trends & recent stats
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Oregon’s secondary has been at their best when the game is on the line, allowing just seven completions on 21 targets in close & late situations, the lowest completion rate allowed among P4 programs.
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Conversely, QB Dillon Gabriel has completed 86% of passes in close & late situations (18-of-21), the highest mark in the P4.
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Maryland’s offensive line has been strong in pass protection, allowing a 28% pressure rate (37th) with a 3.8% sack rate (35th). However, they rank a disappointing 124th with a 12.3% blown run block rate, and 104th in yards before contact (1.33).
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The Terps’ pass defense has been a notch down from recent seasons, ranking 109th allowing 21% of completions to gain 20+ yards while ranking 116th in yards per dropback allowed (7.3 yards).
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Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
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