Patriots-Bills preview: Pats defense goes up against NFL MVP favorite originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
ORCHARD PARK, NY — While Patriots coaches have come into the crosshairs from media and fans over the course of the last several weeks, recent opponents felt as though New England’s primary issue was due to those wearing helmets on the sidelines, not headsets.
“The quarterback looks like the real deal,” said one rival general manager. “He just needs a lot of help. Especially on the offensive line.”
“The scheme defensively isn’t bad,” said one opposing offensive coordinator. “We’ve seen worse. Their problem is they have one good player (Christian Gonzalez). A bunch of those guys who’ve played good football for them in the past just aren’t themselves right now.”
🔊 Next Pats podcast: Ten College Football Playoff STUDS for the Patriots | Listen & Subscribe | Watch on YouTube
That’s not to excuse what the Patriots have put on the field from a preparation and game-management standpoint this season. Those fall on the coaches, specifically head coach Jerod Mayo, offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt and defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington.
But with a roster that struggles to keep up with its opposition on a weekly basis from a talent standpoint, the coaching staff has had its hands full.
Speaking to several sources around the league who have experience with hirings and firings at the head coach and coordinator level, for them, there are two paths that seem to make the most sense for the Patriots moving forward. One would be to start over with an entirely new staff. The other would be to keep all three of Mayo, Covington and Van Pelt and allow them to try to get the team back to contention with a roster that should be able to improve this coming offseason.
The thinking being that, even if you have designs on swapping out coordinators and keeping Mayo, coveted options for those jobs could be hard to come by. If tethered to a head coach who could be on the hot seat in Year 2, with a roster that appears to still be in need of multiple offseasons of rebuilding, will the next coordinator (or coordinators) truly be set up for success?
Whatever ends up occuring with the staff, the roster will undergo real change in the months following the regular season. It’ll have to in order to keep up with the Bills and others atop the AFC. Let’s get to some of the matchups that’ll dictate just how close — or not — Sunday’s matchup in Western New York will be.
Matchup that’ll determine the outcome
Josh Allen vs. Jerod Mayo
There isn’t a better quarterback on the planet right now.
The front-runner for MVP has 14 touchdowns, 1,027 total yards, zero turnovers and zero sacks in his last three games. He’s led the Bills to eight-straight 30-point performances Buffalo has scored 90 points over the last two weeks. And in Week 16, he has the good fortune of facing off with a defense that is 30th in the NFL in EPA per play. Though the temperatures in Orchard Park will be below freezing on Sunday, anticipate points for the hosts. And lots of ’em.
Allen has won 16 of his last 17 regular-season games in December and January, and that trend won’t stop on Sunday. Per NextGen Stats, his 70 total touchdowns in December and January since 2020 are 22 more than any other player in football.
Matchup that’ll surprise you
Drake Maye vs. Sean McDermott
Drake Maye has received a lot of comparisons to Josh Allen since the lead-up to this year’s draft, and while it’s too early to stack up any of his accomplishments against arguably the best player in the league, it’s fascinating to compare Maye to Allen as a rookie.
“Both guys used their legs to their advantage, for sure,” Van Pelt said of the two passers and how he evaluated them as prospects. “The knock on Josh, if there was one, was the accuracy and the throwing, but obviously he’s thrown it darn well. Playing at a real high level right now. But there are similarities… You do see some of the similar play style.”
Maye isn’t quite as big as Allen and his arm isn’t quite as strong as Allen’s was coming out of Wyoming. But Maye appears to be more advanced in terms of his understanding of the position. “I think,” said Patriots quarterbacks coach TC McCartney this week, “[Maye] may be the smartest person in this building.”
Maye’s ability to process before and after the snap has led to him putting up some numbers that exceed those Allen posted as a first-year player. Maye’s completion percentage (68.5) is better than Allen’s was (52.8), his yards-per-attempt (6.8) is better than Allen’s was (6.5), his interception rate (3.2) is a tick better than Allen’s was (3.8), and his rating 88.4 is significantly better than Allen’s as a rookie (67.9). Maye has even been a more effective rusher (8.5 yards per carry) than Allen was (7.1).
How will Maye fare against a divisional opponent this weekend? His ability to read two-high safety defenses should help. He’s completing 76.8 percent of his throws against Cover 2 (two safeties splitting the deep portion of the field in half) and Cover 6 (three defensive backs splitting the deep portion of the field into one half and two quarters). Maye’s completion percentage over expected against those looks (7.1) is third-best in the NFL, and the Bills use those coverages at the second-highest rate (34.2 percent of snaps) in the league.
Matchup that’ll take years off your life
Khalil Shakir vs. Patriots defensive backs
Josh Allen no longer has that true No. 1 wideout, but his trusted slot target, Khalil Shakir, could produce like one on Sunday. He plays 75 percent of his plays from the interior, and the Patriots have already ruled out one of their top interior defenders Marcus Jones (hip).
If Allen can find Shakir against favorable matchups — especially in the Orchard Park cold, which could encourage shorter throws — the Bills could move the chains at will. Per NGS, Shakir has generated 140 yards over expected on throws that travel less than 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, which is second-most in the NFL.
