Patriots Mailbag: Should Alex Van Pelt be Drake Maye’s long-term OC?

Patriots Mailbag: Should Alex Van Pelt be Drake Maye’s long-term OC? originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

The New England Patriots are still seeking their first winning streak since 2022 after falling to the Tennessee Titans in overtime last Sunday.

A clash of 2024 first-round quarterbacks awaits this Sunday when Drake Maye’s Patriots face Caleb Williams’ Chicago Bears, but before we dive into that matchup, we’ve got mailbag questions to answer. Let’s dive in…

I think Josh McDaniels has proven himself to be an excellent developer of quarterbacks. That said, Drake Maye has shown improvement in relatively short order under Alex Van Pelt. He’s processing quickly, Kurt Warner told Next Pats last week, and his footwork — while still imperfect — has calmed down since his time at North Carolina. All the while, Maye has maintained a playmaking mindset that has helped lead to moments like the one that ended regulation last week in Nashville.

While there exists the possibility that McDaniels might allow Maye to reach new heights, I think if Jerod Mayo and the Kraft family ever wanted to make a change at play-caller, they would have to tread lightly.

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Switching things up on a young passer doesn’t always have the desired effect. McDaniels, whose offensive scheme is diverse and puts a lot on the quarterback, wouldn’t have the same language or guiding principles that Maye has worked to absorb since being drafted. Van Pelt’s scheme is rooted in West Coast philosophies and is viewed as ”quarterback friendly,” with a significant amount of the responsibilities pre-snap falling to the center.

There’s always a chance that Maye takes to a new system quickly. By all accounts, he’s a diligent worker, and his football IQ has impressed those he’s been around this season. And my guess is McDaniels wouldn’t try to overload him with concepts and responsibilities in their first year together. There could be an argument that Maye taking a step back as he adjusts to a new scheme in Year 2 might allow him to take two steps forward later on.

But if Maye continues to trend upward in 2024, there would be real risk in making a seismic change to the offense he’s spent so much time digesting as a rookie.

This is one of the drawbacks of taking a long-term approach to your rebuild; it’s hard to gauge how effective Van Pelt’s scheme can be — what is its upside? — when the personnel on that side of the ball is talent deficient. The most fair approach, in my opinion, would be to allow Van Pelt time for his offense to catch on with better players.

Have to give them the opportunity to do it. Is there a large sample of evidence suggesting they’ll be able to execute what you’re describing? No. But this offseason is their chance to hit fast forward on their rebuild.

They have money. They have assets in the draft. They have a young quarterback who looks like the type of player others will want to play with.

As for the offensive coordinator, there have been questions about Van Pelt since the season began. He has half a season to show what he can do with the pieces he has.

Bill Belichick was in charge of the draft as head coach. Did he lean on others for input? Of course. So, Eliot Wolf and Matt Groh aren’t completely blameless when it comes to some of Belichick’s recent misses.

But they were Belichick’s misses. Start there. The same way we should start with Eliot Wolf when it comes to player acquisition this past offseason.

The receiver picks, their inability to contribute on a consistent basis, and their lack of attention to detail has to be one of the most disappointing elements of the season for the Patriots. There’s still time for this to change, but they don’t at the moment have a clear-cut No. 1 or No. 2 receiver for Maye’s second season.

First things first: They could throw him the ball a little more.

DeMario Douglas has five games this season with three targets or fewer. He saw nine targets and caught seven passes for just 35 yards last week in Tennessee as the team appeared to work more run-pass option plays into their attack. (Those led to quick throws at or behind the line of scrimmage that the Titans seemed ready for.)

Douglas also is just not an every-down player for them. Plain and simple. That may be due in part to his size and his ability (or lack thereof, in the eyes of the coaches) to contribute as a running-game player. While he leads all Patriots receivers in snaps this season (345 snaps), he’s not always on the field even in obvious passing situations.

The Patriots often like to deploy two-tight-end sets in those situations with Austin Hooper and the one offensive skill position player who plays pretty much no matter the scenario: Hunter Henry (466 snaps).

Different offense. Based on timing and rhythm. Having the number of options Tom Brady used to have with his receiving corps isn’t the way this offense is structured. Part of making something more ”quarterback friendly” is not asking them to make an overwhelming number of decisions that very few passers can make consistently (and effectively).

Brady was one of one when it came to his ability to process. Might be asking for trouble if asking for something similar for a young quarterback. Eventually in Maye’s career? Maybe. Now, as a 22-year-old with 26 college starts under his belt? Probably not.

It’s about the personnel on the line, Ryan, not where the quarterback aligns. They’ve had 35 runs from under center over the last four games, and they’ve averaged 1.6 yards per carry. That’s not sustainable. They’ve been better (though not by much) running from shotgun in that same span, averaging 2.2 yards per attempt.

Either way, they’re having a horrible time trying to carve out space for their running backs. Among 46 qualifying running backs, per Pro Football Reference, the two primary Patriots backs — Rhamondre Stevenson (1.7) and Antonio Gibson (1.6) — are in the bottom seven in the NFL when it comes to average yards per carry before first contact. Not where you want to be.

Getting under center hasn’t worked lately, and I don’t think it’s suddenly going to make this group a lot more effective when it comes to moving bodies at the line of scrimmage.

No. Barring something completely unexpected, as I’ve reported before, Jerod Mayo is not going to be fired during his first season or ahead of his second.

They’ll tell you ”smart, tough, dependable” is the goal, but there’s certainly a lot left to be desired when it comes to the Patriots achieving those things on a weekly basis. They’re going to continue to chase those things even if they’re falling short of them, however.

“I think that’s part of trying to establish a culture in Year 1 of a new regime. You have to have certain carrots dangling in front of you as you pursue what exactly it is you want to be. You don’t abandon them nine weeks in.