Patriots vs. Jets preview: Pats run defense must improve in Week 8 originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
FOXBORO — As the Patriots prepared for their first practice since being described as “soft” by head coach Jerod Mayo, “salty” might have been the best adjective to describe the air around the team’s offensive linemen.
Donning full pads for an early-down-focused practice, that was their first opportunity to prove to their coach that they’re ready and able to play the brand of football demanded of them.
“It should light a fire up under your ass,” guard Michael Jordan said. “For me personally, you can’t allow anyone to hold you to a higher standard than yourself. When Coach said it, it meant something. But I hold myself to a higher standard so I’m already upset. I’m already upset.”
The question now is whether or not Mayo’s message landed with his team as they prepare to take on a Jets team doing some soul-searching of their own at the moment.
Do players take one of football’s most offensive four-letter words and use it as fuel? Do they take that challenge head-on? Or do they go in the opposite direction?
“You don’t take it too personally,” tackle Demontrey Jacobs said. “You look at it, ‘How can I change that narrative from Coach’s point of view?’ Like he said, we’re playing soft is what he said. We just gotta reiterate what we gotta do to play harder, play smarter together for longer.”
“I don’t resent it at all,” Jordan said. “I happily accept it. You need that type of stuff. You need it. You need total honesty to be able to see where you need to go.”
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Hunter Henry resides just a few stalls down from a cluster of linemen in the Patriots locker room. He, too, insisted that the players involved will rise to the occasion.
“It’s got to challenge you,” he said. “It’s a physical game. You never want that to be your identity… I think the team will react great. You don’t want to be called that.”
On Friday, having seen two days of practice, Mayo said his team’s intensity level was where he expected it to be after everything that had occurred since the clock hit zeros in London.
But unless they can improve upon what they’ve shown lately when it comes to running the football (their backs have averaged 1.9 yards per carry the last two weeks) and stopping the run (more on that below), unless they see real results against a divisional opponent at home this weekend, that won’t matter.
“My job is always to challenge these guys and always show them what it is,” Mayo said. “What I will say is we’ve had a good week of practice. We’ve had good weeks of practice. Now it just has to show up on Sunday.”
Matchup that will determine the game
Jets run game vs. Patriots run defense
When the Jets ceased their film review of the Patriots loss to Jacksonville, how could they come away with any thought other than this: “Let’s run them out of the building.”
Get trampled to the tune of 171 yards on the ground — including an embarrassing 17 consecutive runs at one point — and you have to expect to see the same kind of grind-you-out approach the following week. No matter the opponent.
The question is whether or not the Patriots will have any schematic answers to handle what the Jets will throw at them with running backs Breece Hall and Braelon Allen. One suggestion I’ve heard this week is that New England could change what they do from a philosophical standpoint with their front seven.
They’ve long been a “two-gapping” defense on early downs, with players taking on blocks and being able to play gaps on either side of those blocks, eventually discarding them to make tackles. Easier said than done. Particularly if you don’t have the personnel to pull it off.
Calling for more of a one-gap, get-up-the-field approach could prove beneficial. That could mean sending run blitzes. That could mean slanting the front in order to create penetration. The Patriots are missing some of their most physical defenders — Ja’Whaun Bentley, Christian Barmore, Jabrill Peppers — so they’re without the size they’re used to in some spots, which makes two-gapping a difficult ask. Daniel Ekuale, Christian Elliss and Marte Mapu don’t bring the same level of thump.
The Patriots did throw a few wrinkles into their run defense in real time against the Jaguars. No team played with more loaded boxes (41 percent of snaps, per NextGen Stats) than the Patriots last week. They also sent second-level defenders on blitzes to try to time things up and make tackles near the line of scrimmage. Neither worked.
The Patriots need to continue to spin the dial as they look for answers as they find themselves in the middle of a three-game stretch where they’ve allowed on average 185 yards per game on the ground. The good news for them is that the Jets haven’t run it all that well this season, despite having two talented backs. They’re 29th in EPA per rush and 28th in success rate when Aaron Rodgers hands off.
Matchup that will surprise you
Drake Maye vs. Jets blitzes
One thing interim Jets head coach Jeff Ulbrich has not been afraid of since taking over? Heating up opposing quarterbacks.
His team’s blitz rate since Week 6 ranks ninth in the NFL at 37.7 percent. Makes sense. When the Jets send five rushers or more, they’re second-best in the NFL in terms of quarterback rating allowed (55.0) and fourth-best in terms of yards per attempt allowed (5.3).
Seeing a rookie quarterback this week shouldn’t move him off that tendency — particularly because that style of defense yielded the Jets great success back in Week 3. Under then-head coach Robert Saleh, the Jets blitzed on just over 36 percent of Patriots dropbacks and allowed just three points.
And yet… Patriots quarterback Drake Maye has looked comfortable when working against extra pass-rushers. Against Houston in Week 6, he averaged 9.9 yards per pass play against the blitz, connecting on three touchdown passes. Against the Jags, he threw a touchdown pass when blitzed and had the best EPA per play against the blitz (+0.22) in Week 7.
Something, as they say, has gotta give.
Matchup that will take years off your life
Breece Hall vs. Patriots linebackers
The Patriots haven’t only had trouble stopping opposing running backs carrying the football between the tackles. Running backs have been an issue in the passing game, too. Through the last three games, they’re allowing a quarterback rating of 120.5 on 12 targets to running backs.
Unfortunately for them, they’re now facing one of the most talented pass-catching backs in football. And a quarterback in Rodgers who has targeted running backs in the passing game (57 attempts) more than any other this season.
Per NGS, Hall has caught 32 of his 43 targets for an average of 9.6 yards per catch, generating 73 yards after contact over expected. That final figure ranks him third among all backs this season. Elliss, Raekwon McMillan and Jahlani Tavai will have their work cut out for them getting the 5-foot-11, 217-pounder down on the ground; the Patriots have missed a whopping 28 tackles in the last three weeks, according to Pro Football Focus.
