But Irvin, Gore and Parker might end up as good as Jordan Zimmermann, Gio González and Tanner Roark, who combined for 302 wins with a 3.86 ERA, four all-star nods, seven 15-win seasons and $262 million in career earnings.
Remember, we’re talking “good,” which is the core of a contender, not “great,” which means division titles and a World Series. Aces? The Nats probably don’t have one in sight, unless Gore maxes out.
Nonetheless, the Nats have something else just over the horizon, which may be more unusual, and valuable, than possessing one of the top pitching trios so far this season. They have three more pitchers who may have similar ability — arriving soon.
Just 11 months ago, Josiah Gray was an all-star with a fine 3.91 ERA in 30 starts. Since then, his fastball has lost a tick, and he’s currently rehabbing in the minors from the worrisome “forearm flexor strain,” which often means one of two things: false alarm or Tommy John surgery in the next 18 months. If Gray comes back healthy by the all-star break, then he’s just as promising as the aforementioned trio.
Cade Cavalli, the Nats’ No. 1 draft pick in 2020, is also rehabbing in the minors after Tommy John surgery. Manager Dave Martinez says he’s on or ahead of schedule and is throwing 95 to 98 mph. When you make it that far back, you usually complete the job as, for example, Zimmermann did, looking consistent in late-season starts in 2010 before establishing himself as a rotation foundation the next year. Cavalli, who fanned tons in the minors while walking a few too many, looks like a bigger, burlier Zimmermann to me.
So, before the July 30 trade deadline, it’s plausible that Gore, Irvin, Parker, Gray and, if he shakes off enough rust, Cavalli will be in the rotation together.
Because some of these five are coming back from injuries while others may hit innings limits late in the season, it would be dandy to have another fellow to fill out a possible arm-saving six-man rotation.
Who came along Saturday, a year ahead of schedule, but rookie southpaw DJ Herz, 23, who fanned 13 with no walks in six one-hit scoreless innings. In the Cubs’ farm system, Herz had Nuke LaLoosh stats — 455 strikeouts but 208 walks in 317⅔ innings. That means if he can consistently throw enough strikes, then Herz for Jeimer Candelario at the trade deadline last year may top Lane Thomas for Jon Lester in 2021 and Roark for Cristian Guzmán in 2010 in General Manager Mike Rizzo’s flip-a-vet-at-the-deadline trophy case.
Of course, Juan Soto for Gore and shortstop CJ Abrams, both all-star candidates, plus 6-foot-7 James Wood (hitting .355 in Class AAA), outfield prospect Robert Hassell III and righty Jarlin Susana, 20, whose slider supposedly plays even better than his 100-mph fastball in Class A, may convince the other 29 GMs to refuse late-July phone calls from Rizzo.
Suddenly, we’re at a juncture in the Nats’ rebuild where anything can happen. Because pitchers’ arms are held together by spiderwebs, the news can turn ugly in a hurry. Every time Martinez gives an update on the elbows of Gray and Cavalli, silence descends.
Trevor Williams, who had been the Nats’ most effective pitcher (2.22 ERA), is out indefinitely with similar worrisome issues. If he comes back in time to be flipped at the trade deadline, he will be. If not, be happy if he sticks around. In a nice fantasy, his history as a reliever helps the Nats in the National League’s eight-way pratfall-filled last-playoff-spot comedy.
Such arm injury worries always abide. But for now, there’s a flip side that few, certainly not me, foresaw on Opening Day. By next month, the Nats may have a deep young rotation with six pitchers, ages 23 to 27, with a total of at least 27 seasons under team control. Nats fans may enjoy some combination of Gore, Irvin, Parker, Cavalli, Gray and Herz for years.
Watch Gore in particular. His ERA is 3.24 with the sixth-best strikeout rate among starters despite a .359 batting-average-on-balls-in-play against him — dead last among all starters. BABIP equals “fluke factor.” In 14 starts, Gore has given up about 14 more hits than a pitcher with his number of balls hit into play normally would. When that evens out, as it always does, Gore will need fewer pitches to go deeper into some of his games and we may see who he really is.
Gore’s ceiling as a top-of-the-rotation type is important. But adding two solid mid-rotation starters out of the blue can change the future, too. That describes Irvin and Parker, who were fourth- and fifth-round draft picks. Both had promising but hardly flashy minor league résumés when the phone rang in Rochester because the Nats’ rotation was so awful or depleted.
In the movies, you don’t get your break because the big club calls and says, “Can anybody down there throw a ball 60 feet 6 inches?” But for Irvin last season and Parker this year, that’s pretty much what happened. Herz got a similar emergency call late last month.
One thread of theory runs through all of the Nats’ improved pitching this season. The best pitch is “a strike,” and the best time to throw it is “right now.”
Some never learn. Change that: Most never learn. I spent decades standing 15 feet behind pitchers in spring training watching them throw strikes, or competitive near strikes — those accidentally ideal “chase pitches” — on almost every delivery. Then, in a game, they don’t have the competitive courage to do it — until they are behind in the count and have no choice. The “fear of the bat” gets them, subconsciously.
Over a whole game, to avoid walks, these cowards, a.k.a. normal humans with understandable fears, end up throwing almost as many strikes as the brave guys. But they throw too many of them in hitter’s counts when batters can be selective and are more dangerous.
Batters in pitcher’s counts suddenly hit almost as badly as pitchers. It’s a law. Right now, Irvin and Parker know it. The Nats hope they never forget. Irvin has benefited the most, after the team got a bit exasperated and challenged him to attack more.
This season, his walks are down from 4.0 per nine innings, which is awful, to 1.7, one of the best rates in MLB. His ERA has dropped by more than a third (from 4.61 to 3.00), and his homers allowed rate has nearly been halved (from 1.5 per nine innings to 0.8).
The Nats’ future looks so bright from now until Aug. 11, with a manageable schedule featuring lots of losers, that a Sunglasses Promotion Day might work.
Nonetheless, this franchise still has miles to march. Another element of baseball fate is making your own luck by improving at your craft. Every time Abrams or Keibert Ruiz, key up-the-middle pieces, gets himself out by hitting a pitcher’s pitch in a hitter’s count, I think, “If this is ’10, or ’11, it’s still a long way to ’12.”
Nonetheless, the three most important elements in a rebuild, at least in theory, are coming into focus: a cohesive team culture, sufficient talent throughout the organization and, finally, the thing that almost nobody thought the Nats had — the makings of a good, young rotation for years to come.
