Phillies vs. Mets NLDS Game 3 prediction: Odds, expert picks, pitching matchup, betting trends, and stats

Six lead changes. Blown saves by both teams’ closers. Five home runs in the final four innings. Game 2 of the NLDS between the Phillies and the Mets was an October classic. The series is now tied following a wild come from behind, blown lead, come from behind 7-6 win by Philadelphia.

Nick Castellanos homered in the 6^th and drove in Trea Turner with the winning run in the bottom of the 9^th to help the Phillies even the series.

Jeff Hoffman got the final out and the win after Matt Strahm blew the save earlier in the 9^th.Edwin Diaz coughed up the Mets’ lead in the 8^th before Tylor Megill served up the Castellanos hit in the 9^th to lose the game.

The scene now shifts to Citi Field in New York for Games 3 and 4.

Aaron Nola takes the mound for the Phillies while Sean Manaea will start the game for the Mets.

Lets dive into the matchup.

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch first-pitch, projected pitching matchup, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

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Game details & how to watch Phillies @ Mets – Game 3

● Date: Tuesday, October 8, 2024
● Time: 5:08 PM ET
● Site: Citi Field
● City: Flushing, NY
● TV/Streaming: FS1

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Game odds for Phillies @ Mets

The latest odds as of Monday:

● Moneyline: New York Mets (-105), Philadelphia Phillies (-115)
● Spread: Mets +1.5 (-185), Phillies -1.5 (+150)
● Total: 7.5

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Probable starting pitchers for Philadelphia @ New York

● Tuesday’s pitching matchup (October 8): Aaron Nola vs. Sean Manaea

○ Mets: Manaea allowed 2 earned runs, struck out 4, and gave up 6 hits in 5 innings against Milwaukee in the Wild Card round.

○ Phillies: Nola has yet to appear in the 2024 postseason. Finished the regular season with a record of 14-8 and a 3.57 ERA. Over the last two seasons, Nola has made 9 starts in the playoffs. He is 5-3 with a 3.70 ERA allowing 20 runs over 48.2 innings.

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Top betting trends & insights to know ahead of Phillies @ Mets

• Sean Manaea last faced the Phillies on September 21^st allowing 3 earned runs in 7 innings. Manaea previous faced the Phils on June 8 and was shelled for 6 earned runs in just 3.2 innings.

• Aaron Nola last faced the Mets on September 13^th and got roughed up for 6 earned runs in just 4.1 innings. Nola did throw a gem against the Mets on May 14^th tossing a complete game 4-hit shutout.

• Francisco Lindor picked up his 1^st hits of this series in Game 2 going 2-4 with a couple singles. He is batting .235 in the postseason.

• Bryce Harper hit his 17^th career home run on Sunday evening in Game 2. It was one of 2 hits on the day for the veteran.

• The Phillies stole 3 bases in 4 attempts against Mets’ pitching in Game 2

• The Over is 6-1 in the Phillies’ last 7 divisional matchups

Playoff Histories for Philadelphia and New York

• Mets: Own a playoff record of 55-42 all-time. They have reached the World Series 5 times in their franchise history winning in 1969 and 1986.

• Phillies: Philadelphia has made the playoffs now 17 times with an overall postseason record of 69-66. They have claimed the National League pennant 8 times. They won the World Series in 1980 against the Kansas City Royals and in 2008 against the Tampa Bay Rays.
  In the last 10 years, the Phillies have made the playoffs 3 times and won 5 series in those 3 trips to the postseason.

If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our MLB Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!

Expert picks & predictions for Tuesday’s NLDS Game 3 at Citi Field between the Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Mets

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Tuesday’s Philadelphia @ New York Game 3:

• Moneyline: NBC Sports is recommending a play on the Phillies on the Moneyline

• Spread: NBC Sports is staying away from a play on the Run Line

• Total Runs: NBC Sports is recommending a play on the OVER of 7.5 Total Runs

Want even more MLB best bets and predictions from our expert staff & tools? Check out the Expert MLB Predictions page from NBC Sports for money line, spread and total picks for each of the games on today’s calendar!

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