Playoffs?! Yes, Patriots are surprisingly still in AFC postseason race originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
“Playoffs? Playoffs?!”
Those famous words from former NFL head coach Jim Mora will live on forever, and they’re often brought up when a team’s slim playoff chances are talked about.
It sounds crazy, but the New England Patriots are kind of in the mix for a playoff spot in the AFC entering Week 11.
The Patriots are 3-7 and currently own the No. 6 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. They’re also just two wins out of the third and final wild card playoff berth in the conference.
The Denver Broncos currently occupy that wild card spot as the No. 7 seed with a 5-5 record. Here’s a look at the teams below the Broncos in the standings, including the Patriots:
7. Denver Broncos, 5-5
8. Indianapolis Colts, 4-6
9. Cincinnati Bengals, 4-6
10. Miami Dolphins, 3-6
11. New York Jets, 3-7
12. New England Patriots, 3-7
The Patriots have three more games before their Week 14 bye. The first matchup is Sunday’s Week 11 showdown against the Los Angeles Rams at Gillette Stadium. The Rams are 4-5 and had a three-game win streak snapped with a Monday night loss to the Miami Dolphins in Week 10. They have to travel all the way across America on short rest to play the Patriots.
The Patriots travel to Miami to play the rival Dolphins in Week 12. The Dolphins escaped with a lucky 15-10 win over the Patriots in Foxboro in Week 5. Miami has lost three of its four games since, and the team has mostly struggled since quarterback Tua Tagovailoa returned from injury.
The Patriots return home in Week 13 to host the Colts. Indianapolis benched quarterback Anthony Richardson (the No. 4 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft) in favor of veteran Joe Flacco going into Week 9. Flacco has thrown two touchdown passes with four interceptions in two games since that decision was made. As a result, the Colts are going back to Richardson as the starter on Sunday. The Colts defense hasn’t been great, either, ranking 29th in yards allowed per game.
Could the Patriots win these three games and head into the bye week at 6-7? It’s not a slam dunk, of course, but it’s certainly possible. These three opponents are not juggernauts by any means.
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The real challenge comes after the bye when the Patriots have to play the AFC East-leading Buffalo Bills in Weeks 16 and 18, the NFC West-leading Arizona Cardinals in Week 15, and the resurgent Los Angeles Chargers (who occupy a playoff berth) in Week 17. The Patriots have the fourth-toughest remaining schedule, per Tankathon. New England’s remaining opponents currently have a combined .582 win percentage.
For what it’s worth, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) projects the Patriots will finish with a 5-12 record and gives them only a 1.0 percent chance of reaching the postseason.
A loss to the Rams on Sunday would almost certainly end all (very slim) hope of the Patriots making the playoffs. But a victory for the Patriots would at least make the race a little more interesting, at least for another week. The fact that the Patriots, with a 3-7 record, are only two games out of a playoff spot at this juncture in the season is further evidence of how weak the AFC is in 2024 compared to recent seasons.
Even if the Patriots don’t make the playoffs, playing some semi-meaningful games over the final quarter of the season would be good experience for the team’s young players, most of all rookie quarterback Drake Maye.
