When I was in college (too many years ago to count) I had a friend who was perpetually angry. He was known for marking the walls of the upper floors of the Student Center with four letters of graffiti. They were “TINJ,” which meant “There Is No Justice.”
When a complicated racehorse handicapping situation gets even more complicated, I am tempted to write those infamous four letters across my racing form. It could apply to this year’s Breeders’ Cup, where for the first time, horses from Japan are a significant factor in almost every one of the 14 races. In the past, we had to compare European form against the accomplishments of American horses, and that was difficult enough. But after the 2021 Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar produced two Japan-based winners, owners and trainers from that country are doubling down on their success from three years ago. Last year, a record eight Japanese horses ran in the Breeders’ Cup, and this year that number is up to 19. The handicapping puzzle simply has more variable factors than before. Imagine a jigsaw puzzle that suddenly expanded from a thousand pieces to perhaps 10,000. Longshots and surprise results should not surprise anyone, and some races could provide key insights on the road to next year’s Kentucky Derby.
As has been the case in recent years, the event gets underway on Friday with five races for 2-year-old horses. Here’s a look at each of the 14 races held across Friday and Saturday from a handicapping perspective, including the signature Breeders’ Cup Classic:
How to Watch the 2024 Breeders’ Cup
FUTURE STARS FRIDAY
JUVENILE TURF SPRINT – 5 Furlongs (5/8 of a mile)
I’ve seen video of the most recent race of Ecoro Sieg, and this Japan-based sprinter is one who goes to the front and doesn’t look back. He’s undefeated in two starts, and the firm turf over five furlongs should suit him well. Whistlejacket is the most accomplished horse in the field. In his last three starts, he’s been second, first and second in consecutive Group 1 races in Ireland, France and England. He’s well-bred and very consistent at the highest levels. Aesterius is a rapidly improving horse who has four wins and a second in six career starts. He has shown himself capable of running with the top European juvenile sprinters.
JUVENILE FILLIES – 1 & 1/16 Miles
Sometimes class rules, and Immersive is the classiest horse in this field. Undefeated in three starts (including two consecutive Grade 1 races), she is a well-bred filly who won her last race at this distance. She could be a deserving short-priced favorite. American Bikini is highly regarded among the contingent from Japan. A daughter of American Pharoah, she has two wins and a third in three starts. The added distance of this race should help her. Quickick was second to Immersive in her last start, and that alone should make her a worthwhile investment. She has also defeated two other horses in this field, so her 10-1 morning line odds seem like a real nice price.
JUVENILE FILLIES TURF – 1 Mile
Undefeated in four starts, Lake Victoria has won the most prestigious races for 2-year-old fillies in Ireland and England in her last two races. Trained by Aidan O’Brien and regally bred, she has the look of a high-quality performer. Thought Process may not be as well-bred as Lake Victoria, but she has won her last three, including two on this Del Mar turf course. Trainer Phil D’Amato has had a great year, and this one could add to his impressive totals. Kilwin is a late-closer who will be a good price. This horse is undefeated in two starts, including a win at six-and-a-half furlongs in a stakes race on the grueling, hilly turf course at Kentucky Downs. If she can win in those conditions, the stretch-out to a mile on the flatter and firmer course at Del Mar should work to her advantage.
JUVENILE – 1 & 1/16 Miles
This is the race where people start speculating if a horse in this field could win the following year’s Kentucky Derby. This year it has drawn a very strong field. Chancer McPatrick has gotten a lot of buzz because of his late-closing style. He is undefeated in three starts and won Grade 1 stakes in New York in his last two. Trained by Chad Brown, he has the look of a horse who could be a factor in next year’s Triple Crown races. He would be an overwhelming favorite here if not for the presence of the speedy East Avenue. His race in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland was certainly dominant and arguably breathtaking, as he went wire-to-wire against a strong field of 11 to win by five lengths. Because of the dominance of the two favorites, Jonathan’s Way should be a nice price on the board. He’s undefeated in two starts, winning by comfortable margins at Saratoga and Churchill Downs. His trainer is Phil Bauer, who is having a career-best year, and his sire, Vekoma, is one of the hot new sires in racing whose offspring tend to run well as 2-year-olds.
JUVENILE TURF – 1 Mile
Mentee is a full brother to Fierceness, and he could have the same good fortune that Fierceness had last year when he won the Juvenile. His last start was his first try on turf, and he came away with a solid win in the Futurity Stakes at Aqueduct. Trainer Todd Pletcher has been high on Mentee from the start. Henri Matisse fits the profile of an Aidan O’Brien runner who has come to the U.S. in search of firm turf. He started his career with three consecutive wins and then a second in the Group 1 Vincent O’Brien National Stakes in Ireland. He did not run well in his last start, but that could be chalked up to soft turf conditions at Paris Longchamp that weekend. I would not be surprised to see him bounce back to top form at Del Mar. Satono Carnaval is a rarity, as he is a Japan-based horse who has a graded stakes win on his resume. It was explained to me that most graded stakes for 2-year-olds in Japan are in November and December, so it is rare to have one that has won a graded stake at this time of the year. He is undefeated in two starts and is highly regarded in Japan.
READ MORE: From Forever Young to City of Troy, international contingent in spotlight at 2024 Breeders’ Cup
BREEDERS’ CUP SATURDAY
FILLY & MARE SPRINT – 7 Furlongs (7/8 mile)
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Top Pick: WAYS AND MEANS
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2nd Choice: SOCIETY
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Longshot: ZEITLOS
Ways and Means has shown class and dominance from her very first start, which she won by nearly 13 lengths. She’s won her last three, including two major stakes races at Saratoga. The other two choices are both trained by Steve Asmussen, and I like them equally. Society was fourth in this race last year, and she’s been pointed to a strong return effort. In the Ballerina Handicap at Saratoga, she defeated Vahva and Scylla, both of whom are serious contenders in this race. Zeitlos posted a very impressive win in his last start (T.C.A. Stakes), darting up the rail to win by a good margin. It was a gutsy performance that prepared her well for the competition in this race.
TURF SPRINT – 5 Furlongs (5/8 mile)
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Top choice: BRADSELL
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2nd Choice: COGBURN
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Longshot: BELIEVING
Bradsell has posted two wins and a second in his last three starts, which are among the most prestigious sprint races run in Europe each year. He’s a five-furlong specialist, as well, so his record of accomplishment speaks for itself. On the American side, Cogburn has been as accomplished here as Bradsell has been in Europe. He’s won six of his last seven, with the only loss coming on that undulating course at Kentucky Downs. His ability to run on the front end or to close from behind should be helpful in the mad dash that this race is every year. If I’m trying to beat Bradsell, I might as well go to Believing, who has finished just behind him in his last three starts. He is trained by the always dangerous George Boughey, and I would not be surprised if he upset the top two.
DISTAFF – 1 & 1/8 Miles
With the retirement of Idiomatic, Thorpedo Anna seems to lay over this group. She is undefeated in three starts at this distance, and her stalking style should work to her advantage here. Trainer Ken McPeek should have her set up for a top performance here. If there is a strong early pace, it should work to the advantage of the late-closing Raging Sea. The Chad Brown trainee has won six of her last seven and can close from far back or from mid-pack. Looking for an under-the-radar horse here, I’ve come up with the 3-year-old Sugar Fish. She has won four of her last five, including winning the Zenyatta Stakes in her last start, defeating older horses for the first time.
TURF – 1 & 1/2 Miles
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Top Choice: JAYAREBE
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2nd Choice: FAR BRIDGE
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Longshot: SHAHRYAR
Trainer Brian Meehan has won the Breeders’ Cup Turf twice, and he has an improving 3-year-old in Jayarebe. He’s an improving sort who should like the firm ground at Del Mar. This race has often been kind to lightly-raced types like him, so he gets a narrow edge here. Far Bridge is a consistent performer, having captured two Grade 1 races at this distance in Saratoga in his last two starts. On his best, he has a real solid chance in this field. Rebel’s Romance is the deserving favorite here, and he may have been at his best earlier in the year. (Horse players refer to a horse like this as a “bet against,” which is a good thing because the money he draws in the betting pools inflates the odds on others in the field.) The horse that ran second to him in the Dubai Sheema Classic in March was the Japan-based Shahryar. Shahryar was third in the Breeders’ Cup Turf last year, and he’s got a chance to pull an upset here.
CLASSIC – 1 & 1/4 Miles
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Top Choice: CITY OF TROY
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2nd Choice: FIERCENESS
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Longshot: SIERRA LEONE
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has said that City of Troy is the best horse he’s ever trained. If the trainer believes he can transition to the dirt surface, that’s good enough for me. The son of Justify gets my nod here. It’s tough for me to pick someone to beat Fierceness, as I’m a big fan of the Todd Pletcher trainee. While we normally admire great horses for their consistency, I admire this horse for his great performances and hope that he doesn’t throw in one of his clunkers. On his best, he will give City of Troy a tussle. If you are a fan of Sierra Leone, this is the day to get value if you bet on him. His average odds in his 8 career races are 5-2, and he’s 12-1 here. Keep in mind that this is a horse who was bought for $2.3 million and has had narrow losses in the Kentucky Derby, Belmont Stakes, Jim Dandy Stakes and Travers Stakes in his last four. His closing style says that he should be in your betting combinations.
FILLY & MARE TURF – 1 & 3/8 Miles
Cinderella’s Dream is a classy runner from Godolphin who has won six of seven lifetime. She is already proven in the U.S., as her last two races were winning efforts in Saratoga. If she goes off at her morning line odds of 4-1, she would be good value. War Like Goddess has been a warrior throughout her career for trainer Bill Mott. She’s been first, second or third in 19 of 22 races lifetime and was third in this race two years ago. I can’t imagine her not being a significant factor here. Equally consistent is the Canadian-based Moira, who has finished in the top three in 14 of 16. She was third in the 2023 version of the Filly & Mare Turf, and the last race where she didn’t finish in the top three was in the 2022 Filly & Mare Turf.
SPRINT – 6 Furlongs (3/4 mile)
Federal Judge has won his last two in dominant fashion and he has the look of a sprinter who is reaching peak form at the right time. His race in the Phoenix Stakes at Keeneland was very impressive. Straight No Chaser is a very dangerous front-runner whose margin of victory in his last three wins has been about seven lengths. Don Frankie is very well regarded by the contingent from Japan. His second-place finish in the Dubai Golden Shaheen showed that he is competitive with the best in the world.
MILE – 1 Mile
If not for a narrow loss in his first race of the year, Porta Fortuna would have four wins in four consecutive Group 1 races this year. Keep in mind that she was second in the Breeders’ Cup Mile last year, as well. One of the top challengers will be Notable Speech, who has won five of seven lifetime, including two Group 1 level wins. Trainer Charlie Appleby should have him in peak form for this spot. Ramatuelle lost by a nose to Porta Fortuna earlier this year. Her last race was an impressive win in the Prix de la Foret at Longchamp, a race that has been used as a prep in the past for winners of the Breeders’ Cup Mile.
DIRT MILE – 1 Mile
I always find this race difficult to handicap, and this year is no exception. It is a race that attracts horses who can’t handle the longer distance of the Classic and it also attracts good sprinters who are stretching out to a mile. I’ve landed on Domestic Product, a late-blooming 3-year-old who has a legitimate chance here. After winning the Tampa Bay Derby, he had a brutal trip in the Kentucky Derby and finished 13th. His last two starts, however, were very strong, as he posted wins in the Dwyer Stakes and the Jerkens Memorial, both of which are prestigious races on the New York schedule. For sheer consistency, how about a horse who has had nine wins, two seconds and two thirds in 13 career starts? That is Post Time, a Maryland-based horse who has been highly competitive in stakes races in New York, as well. I’m taking a stab at Mufasa as a longshot here. The Chilean runner has won two of three in the states, including an impressive win in the Vosburgh at Aqueduct in his last start. At 12-1 on the morning line, he could be a major factor in trifectas and superfectas.
Finally, it is not easy to try to figure out 14 world-class races. In baseball, a successful hitter tries to get hits in three of 10 at-bats. If you told me I would hit to a similar percentage on my Breeders’ Cup selections, I would take it right now. Who knows, one of those winning bets could be a superfecta that pays in the thousands? In any case, have fun betting on the greatest handicapping puzzle on the planet.
