Purdue Basketball: Marquette Preview

Marquette Golden Eagles: 4-0 – A.P. #25 – K.P. 21

Basic Information

Location: Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Type of School: Private Jesuit University

Mascot: Iggy the Golden Eagle

Head Coach – Shaka Smart

Seasons at Marquette: 4

Career Record: 351-172

Regular Season Conference Championships: 1

Conference Tournament Championships: 4

NCAA Appearances: 11

Final 4 Appearances: 1

Kenpom Style of Play

() = National Ranking per Kenpom

Offense

Adj. Efficiency: 115.6 (25)

Avg. Poss. Length: 15.3 (49)

Defense

Adj. Efficiency: 95.2 (23)

Avg. Poss. Length: 18.3 (317)

Tempo

Adj. Tempo: 71.3 (94)

Kenpom 4 Factors

() = National Ranking per Kenpom

Offense

Effective FG%: 52.8 (125)

Turnover %: 12.7 (18)

Off. Reb. %: 29.5 (192)

FTA/FGA: 37.1 (137)

Defense

Effective FG%: 48 (117)

Turnover %: 25.3 (13)

Off. Reb. %: 31 (216)

FTA/FGA: 28.9 (96)

Personnel

Playing Style

Offense

Shaka Smart and Matt Painter both faced a daunting task coming into this season; they needed to try and fill the unfillable shoes of an all-time program legend. Purdue needed to replace the irreplicable Zach Edey and Marquette needed to replace consensus All-American point guard Tyler Kolek.

Interestingly enough, both coaches decided to move forward with either recruits or players on their own roster instead of rolling the dice in the transfer portal. While Coach Painter’s plan hit a snag with Daniel Jacobson’s injury, Shaka Smart’s plan to move 6’5” wing Kam Jones to point guard is working out better than anyone could have imagined.

After their 78-74 win over Maryland, it’s clear this is Kam Jones’ team. He put up 28 points on 7-13 shooting against the Terps, including a 3-5 performance from deep.

Note: Jones is left-handed. He gets a ton of shots off in the paint because defenders forget that and let him access his strong hand while over playing his weaker hand. This is a game where Purdue has to remember the minor details, because they will matter.

Jones is not a 1-for-1 substitution for Kolek. He’s a pure scorer while Kolek leaned more on his play making ability (although he could score as well). When Jones drives, he’s driving to score the ball, and at 6’5”, it’s hard to stop him once he gets to the rim. To make up for Jones being more of a combo guard than a point guard, they utilize guards Chase Ross and Stevie Mitchell in a high weave action. Once they find the matchup they want, someone is trying to take the ball to hoop.

Purdue’s guards will all need to be on their game because when Shaka finds a matchup he likes, he goes at it until the other team stops it. I anticipate him trying to isolate Braden Smith with one of his 6’5” guards and try to wear him down on defense. If that doesn’t work, look for him to go after Fletcher Loyer for the same reason. Marquette needs to punish Purdue for choosing skill over size and/or athleticism in the back court.

One thing to look for when playing Marquette is back cuts. They love to exploit defensive overplays. Teams want to jump out on the Golden Eagle guards and make it tough on the catch. As soon as a Marquette guard sees the overplay it’s a quick step towards the ball and then a cut to basket. They do the same thing on the wing. If the wing defender gets caught ball watching, the Marquette player in the corner is going to cut baseline. Purdue defenders will need to be fundamentally sounds and make sure they can see both ball and man, because as soon as they can’t see “man”, that man is cutting to the rim.

This isn’t a complex Marquette offense, but it’s a tough one to stop. They spread you out, find the matchup they want, and then drive the ball and either get to the hoop, drop it off for waiting rim finisher, or kick out for three. They’re capable of running their offense through everyone, 1 – 5, if they like the matchup. Their center, Ben Gold, won’t hesitate to put the ball on the court and drive if he likes what he sees off the catch. This could pose an issue for Purdue, who one occasion, over-rotates on drives. The Boilermakers need to make Marquette hit the contested 2 at the rim, as opposed to the open 3 in the corner, or the dunk on the backside.

One thing Shaka Smart gives up playing an “all-wing” backcourt is shooting. Kam Jones is a knock down shooter, hitting on 12-22 from deep (54%), but Stevie Mitchell and Chase Ross, while capable shooters, would rather set the table for the Marquette front court. Mitchell is shooting an amazing 60% from 3, but he’s only attempted 5. Ross is shooting 46% but has only attempted 15 shots from deep.

Meanwhile, power forward David Joplin is hitting 21% on 7-33 shooting from deep, and Ben Gold is at 20% on 5-24 shooting. This makes sense because Ross and Mitchell both drive the ball look to kick out and are rarely the designated shooters. Think of Marquette’s offense as the inverse of what you normally see. Their guards want to get in the lane and kick out to their front court players on the wings. They pull everyone away from the paint and make front court players make long closeouts if they want to help. Purdue’s guards have to stay in front and keep the defense from playing in rotation all game.

Finally, it’s all about tempo for Marquette. Shaka wants his guys to attack off the dribble early. If they find a matchup they like in transition, or on the secondary break, they’ll drive the ball and see what they can find. Purdue can’t relax on defense because the Golden Eaglers will attack, and they don’t particularly care which of their players does the attacking. If Ben Gold beats his matchup down the court, he’s getting the ball and he’s taking it to the hoop, same goes with Joplin. Purdue will have to stay “turned on” the entire 40 minutes and communicate in transition. That hasn’t been a strength of the Boilermaker defense early in the season (granted, it looked much better against Alabama).

One of the best ways for Purdue to slow down the Marquette offense is to score the ball and make them start their offense from under their own goal.

Defense

Shaka has pared down the “Havok” he utilized earlier in his career. His teams are still hyper aggressive on defense, but aggressive in a way that doesn’t constantly leak easy baskets. Instead of a full-court press, look for a half-court press. They’re going to try and get the ball out of Braden’s hands by using a central defender to force him to a wing and then trap with the ball side wing. If the ball handler retreats, they trap him in the corners. Purdue guards need to be assertive with their dribble and not play into Marquette’s hands. That means catching and going forwards at all times. It’s easy to back the ball out against the Golden Eagles because they want you to back the ball out and burn time or get stuck on the sideline.

This takes the ball away from the primary ball handler, at least initially. If you want to run your sets against Marquette, you have to break their half court pressure first. The reason Shaka’s team is one of the best in terms of “time on defense” is the press forces you to burn 10-15 seconds getting into your offense. I expect to see them trap Smith early and often in the half court and make him throw cross court passes over 6’5”, defenders to break the pressure. They love picking off the skip pass and converting for easy buckets.

They also guard the pick and roll differently than most. They switch most screens 1-4 and hard hedge and recover with their 5. It’s not unusual to see their power forward, David Joplin, on the perimeter as a primary on ball defender coming off a pick and roll. First and foremost, they want to stop the guard from turning the corner and getting downhill. That opens them up for pick-and-pop opportunities for screeners but makes life difficult on point guards. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Painter counter with a heavy dose of C.J. Cox to help free up Braden off the ball. They want to take the ball away from your point guard, that’s harder to do if you have 2 of them on the court at the same time.

Finally, they’re going to double the post from the top side anytime the ball goes down onto the block. They want to speed up post players and turn them into decision makers instead of scorers. That’s a tough game to play against Purdue’s shooting, but they would rather see TKR with 10 assists than 30 points.

Matchup to Watch

Purdue Skill vs Marquette Backcourt Size

You don’t see many college teams capable of starting 3, 6’5” guards at the same time. That’s what makes their defense uniquely tough. They’ve got tall, long armed defenders 1-3, and use them to trap the ball. It’s difficult to throw the ball over the top because when 2 of Marquette’s 6’5” guards are trapping, the 3rd is playing free safety and looking to intercept cross-court lob passes.

There is always a trade off in basketball though.

Purdue will need to handle the half-court press by moving the ball and scoring early in the clock. If you take 15 seconds to break the press, then reset your offense, they win. There has to be a penalty for deploying 3 defenders so far up the court.

TKR’s ability to drive the ball could be an asset for the Boilermakers in this one. Instead of throwing the ball across the court, if Purdue can find a way to get the ball to TKR on the wing, he should have free reign to drive and finish at the rim against either of Marquette’s big guy or become the primary playmaker and find open shooters.

Look for Purdue to play small against Golden Eagles, with Kaufmann-Renn at the 5. The more ball handlers on the court, the better. They want your non-dribbling center standing at the top of the key with the ball in his hands trying to get the ball to a point guard to start the offense after breaking the half-court trap.

They don’t want the center to turn, square up, and drive the ball from the top of the key. Purdue should do that at every opportunity.

Prediction

KenPom

Purdue – 76

Marquette – 78

Confidence: 43%

Drew

Purdue – 85

Marquette – 77

This is a pick-em game on the road. I like the Boilermakers ability to shoot from perimeter to be the difference maker in this one. Marquette will give up open 3’s, and when that happens, Purdue has to drain them.

Maryland went 7-19 from deep and lost by 4. Purdue is currently shooting 46% from 3. Purdue is going to shoot better than the Terps and pull this game out in the second half.

Or they might lose. Marquette is a solid team playing in front of their home crowd with revenge on their mind. If I could predict the future, I would be living on a well provisioned desert island. Either way, this should be an exciting game.