Purdue Basketball: Maryland Preview

University of Maryland (8-1, 1-0 Big10) – Ken Pom #19

Basic Information

Location: College Park, Maryland

Type of School: Public Land Grant Research University

Mascot: Testudo (The Turtle)

Head Coach – Kevin Willard

Seasons at Maryland: 3

Maryland Record: 46-31

Other Head Coaching Jobs: Iona (‘07-’10), Seaton Hall (‘10-’22)

Overall Record: 316-241

Regular Season Conference Championships: 1 (Seaton Hall)

Conference Tournament Championships: 1 (Seaton Hall)

NCAA Appearances: 6 (2-6)

Final 4 Appearances: 0

Kenpom Style of Play

() = National Ranking per Kenpom

Offense

Adj. Efficiency: 115 (38)

Avg. Poss. Length: 15.3 (21)

Defense

Adj. Efficiency: 93.6 (9)

Avg. Poss. Length: 18.2 (311)

Tempo

Adj. Tempo: 69.5 (105)

Kenpom 4 Factors

() = National Ranking per Kenpom

Offense

Effective FG%: 56 (40)

Turnover %: 13.7 (21)

Off. Reb. %: 33.4 (100)

FTA/FGA: 34.3 (158)

Defense

Effective FG%: 42.9 (19)

Turnover %: 23.5 (9)

Off. Reb. %: 24.6 (31)

FTA/FGA: 28.7 (90)

Personnel

Maryland on Offense

Maryland plays 4 around 1 with one of the two post players in the center of the floor either at or above the free throw line. The interior big will either post hard initially, with Maryland going for a traditional wing entry into the post, or he’ll hang out on the wing, leave the lane open, and function as a rebounder/dump off man on the high pick and roll. While the guards for the Terps can and do score, the offense revolves around their two bigs.

I’m often skeptical of 5* big men that are supposed to make an immediate impact, but Derik Queen in the real deal. The McDonalds All-American is a true freshman who plays well above his class, and a good bit of Maryland’s offense runs through Queen. He’s a freak athlete at 6’10”, 250 but his game isn’t limited to the paint. He can post up, and has a nice move set on the block, but he’s almost impossible to guard when he sizes up his man and drives from the perimeter. When Maryland starts clearing out a side, it’s often to pop Queen out to the wing because they don’t think your center or power forward can stay with him off the bounce, and they’re often correct.

The freshman is joined in the front court by veteran forward Julian Reese. The addition of Queen has helped unlock Reese’s overall game. Last season he was the Terps primary post scorer. Now he’s able to play a more diverse role in the offense that better fits his skill set. Reese can score in the, but I like him better as either the screener in a pick and roll or and energetic weak side rebounder. He’s the type of guy that finds a way to score without having to run plays for him to score, if that makes sense. Now that he isn’t as tethered to the low block, he’s able to pick his spots. Last season his effective field goal percentage was 54%, and he averaged around 13 points. He’s currently shooting 63% and is still averaging 13 points. That 10% jump in efficiency, in my opinion, is directly tied to Derik Queen’s arrival.

While the Terps may have one of, if not, the best front court in the Big 10, their perimeter players are solid as well. Belmont transfer Ja’Kobi Gillespie runs the show. He’s a deadly 3-point shooter, currently knocking them down at 40%, but that’s not all he does. When he’s not bombing away from deep, the 6’0”, 175-pound guard is tough with the ball in his hands. He plays a more physical game than his size would indicate, and he isn’t afraid to drive into the lane and finish with a wide array of runners and floaters. Braden Smith is going to need to win the point guard battle in this game, and Gillespie is going to make that a difficult proposition. In Maryland’s two toughest games (a 4-point loss to Marquette and a 24-point win over Ohio State) Ja’Kobi has been at his most aggressive, putting up 24 points on 10-17 shooting against Marquette (including 4-9 from 3) and 23 points against Ohio State on 7-11 shooting (including 4-8 from 3).

Rodney Rice and Selton Miguel man the wings for the Terps. Rice has attempted the most 3’s on the team (51) and is shooting a respectable 35%. He knows his role on the offense and is often used to create spacing on the weak side of the court. When Maryland goes to their drive and kick game, they’re often kicking it to Rice. He’s not a star, but he’s the type of guy that can score 6 points on two back breaking 3’s.

Miguel, on the other hand, is a straight up bruiser on the wing. I covered him when he played at K-State under Bruce Weber and he was one of my favorite players. He’s strong with the ball in his hands and is always in attack mode. He’s figured out how to temper his aggression in his 5th year in college basketball and has significantly cut down on his turnovers, going from 1.8 last season to .8 this season. He’s asked to do less for Maryland than he was asked to do for USF and that reduction in responsibility has him playing much more efficient basketball. He’s another guy that’s good for 10+ a night that Maryland doesn’t have to run offense for. Selton is at his best either finishing in transition of taking his man off the dribble late in the clock. He’s strong with the ball in the lane and will physically dominate other wings when given the opportunity.

Off the bench Georgia Tech transfer forward Tafara Gapare has been hot over the last 3 games, shooting a combined 16-23 from the field and 5-10 from 3. He’s a floor spacer and can replace either Reese or Queen in the front line. Purdue needs to be aware when he comes into the game because he’s hitting 42% from 3 and plays a different style of basketball than Queen and Reese.

Maryland on Defense

While Maryland’s offense is good and getting better around Queen, their defense is elite. They’re currently 9th in adjusted efficiency, and 9th in turnovers. Opponents are shooting 28% (39th) from 3 and 43.1% (23) from 2. The good news is most of those stats were accrued against not-so-great competition. The Terps have played 4 teams ranked 300+ by KenPom, 2 between 200-300 and 3 games against teams ranked 0-100. To put that in perspective, Purdue has played 0 team ranked 300+, 2 teams ranked 200-300, 2 teams ranked 100-200 and 5 teams ranked in the top 100, including 4 in the top 50.

The bad news is that they just help Ohio State to 59 points and did to the Buckeyes what Penn State did to Purdue. They beat them 83-59 in a game that wasn’t as close as the score indicates. They held Ohio State guards Bruce Thornton and Meechie Johnson to a combined 17 points on 5 of 13 shooting. When this team turns on the defensive pressure, they can blow teams out. The Buckeyes had 17 turnovers and 9 assists. It’s hard to win games like that.

What’s unique about Maryland’s defense is they aren’t afraid to switch anything, 1-5 when Reese and Queen are on the floor. Against Marquette, you’d often see one or the other playing perimeter defense against a guard, and they held up remarkably well. Both of the big men can move their feet and have the length to recover and block shots at the rim. I expect the same against Purdue. Look for Smith to have one of the big men guarding him on the perimeter a good portion of the night. Braden has struggled with length, and the Terps are going to send a power forward and center at him a good part of the night. They’re willing to give up mismatches on defense in exchange for contesting shots. It’s tough to find the normal drive and kick options with the Terps switching everything on the perimeter.

Finally, and worst yet, Maryland likes to full court press. After Purdue’s guards looked totally inept against Penn State’s pressure, I assume Coach Willard will turn the heat up early on the Boilermakers. Braden is coming off one of the worst games of his career, and this is a copy-cat sport. Mayland and Marquette play similar perimeter defense and will harass Braden up and down the court. Purdue may want to take him off the ball some in the half court to see if they can free him up that way, but that means someone else has the ball in their hands and that hasn’t been ideal for the Boilermakers thus far. This team could really use a good game from either Harris or Cox in this one, because both will be needed.

Overall

I did not like the Penn State matchup, and I don’t like this matchup. Maryland does things on defense that bother Purdue and when Purdue has been bothered on offense this year, they turn it over and get run out of the gym. Maryland played Marquette tight despite only getting 2 points out of Reese. They annihilated Ohio State in their conference opener, hitting the Buckeye’s with a 50-17 first half while Purdue got annihilated on the road (I don’t care what the score says, I watched the game, it was a true beat down). Things are not trending in the right direction for the good guys, but as I’ve mentioned before, this is still December college basketball. Things change rapidly from game to game.

This is a home game for the Boilermakers who would be well served not to drop to 0-2 in the Big10 before the start of the new year. Maryland is good, but are they good enough to beat Purdue in Mackey? This will be their first true road game of the year, and no one stresses a team with 4 new starters quite like the Purdue crowd. You’ve got to believe that practice has been less than comfortable for Purdue after laying an egg in Happy Valley and they’ll be eager to come out and prove a point.

I keep reminding myself not to get upset about college basketball until at least January 1st, but this game is testing me. It’s certainly not a “must win” but it’s a “winning would make me feel much better about things” type of game.

Prediction

KenPom

Purdue – 74

Maryland – 70

Confidence: 63%

Drew

Purdue: 68

Maryland: 77

Pessimism is my new optimism. I’ve been expecting the worst and hoping for the best recently and it has far exceeded my normal strategy of expecting the best and getting the worst. I had a bad feeling about the Penn State game, and I’ve got a bad feeling about this one.

I don’t trust Purdue’s guards at the moment, and Maryland puts a premium on guard play. Am I probably overreacting to a game played before January 1st?

Absolutely. I can’t help myself.

Maryland’s press turns Purdue over, the Boilermakers get blown out on the back board and the Terps come into Mackey and steal one, pulling away late on the strength of 20+ points from Derik Queen.