Highly paid, highly followed talking heads will talk. Most especially about the Dallas Cowboys.
It’s the low-hanging fruit of morning talk show ratings. Say something wild or controversial about the Cowboys in the early a.m., then spin that morning opinion into a debate on a noon show. Once you have that, take that second opinion and program it for the afternoon to evening cycle — and suddenly you have a useful single-serving day echo chamber that draws in the social media aggregators and highly interactive programming across all of your platforms. Cable sports network … podcasted versions of that show … ancillary podcasts … website posts … social media traction … clicks and impressions … and some numbers to sell to your advertisers.
It’s the Dallas Cowboys media math.
And if we’re being honest? Throw in columns on the internet, too. Let’s not be disingenuous and preclude ourselves from that group of outlets that tends to orbit around the teams, owners, players and topics that draw the most interest. There is an ecosystem that demands attention, and who are we to deny it?
But if we’re going to partake in it, let us at least embrace it with common sense. Let us be realistic about assessments and situations — facts and data. Don’t say something just to say something. Don’t ignore the basic fundamentals of a salary cap. Or turn your back on the decades-old realities of NFL locker rooms, roster construction, and the very basic and general boundaries of how talent travels between franchises.
If we can do that, we might be able to have an honest conversation about the Dallas Cowboys. What ails them, how to fix them and beyond. Starting with …
Stop talking about the Cowboys making a change at quarterback
Of all the mind-numbing suggestions I have heard in recent days, it’s the idea that the Dallas Cowboys can somehow move off of quarterback Dak Prescott next offseason. When you weigh the salary cap implications, it’s beyond foolish. His most basic cap hit in 2025 is nearly $90 million. His dead cap figure is nearly $152 million. To move away from him next offseason would be an asteroid strike to the franchise — an extinction level event. The talent-shedding and impact on the remaining roster and contract extensions would point to a gutting that would be perceived as a down-to-the-studs rebuild. So if you hear someone say the Cowboys should move to another quarterback, think: Either this person is stupid, or they’re saying something for the sheer effect of the words and aggregation potential. Not naming names or anything … but, yeah.
Prescott is a Cowboy. We can argue about his performance in 2024 prior to his season-ending injury, but his contract extension is all that really matters. Cope with it and move forward. He’s the quarterback for the foreseeable future.
A coaching change appears inevitable. Choose some combination of a tactician and a motivator
I can see team owner Jerry Jones firing head coach Mike McCarthy. Not necessarily because McCarthy deserves it more than a handful of others on the staff (including Jones as general manager), but because there has obviously been a mandate to get over the playoff hump, and McCarthy hasn’t been able to push the right buttons. I won’t waste time defending McCarthy, because I was at the horrendous Jan. 14 playoff loss to the Green Bay Packers, and I thought then — and think now — that McCarthy should have been fired after that game. Not to mention the rest of his staff, including defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, who despite his success with the Washington Commanders this season, didn’t have his defense prepared for that 48-32 loss (which wasn’t as close as the score appears).
Whatever the case now, I am fine with McCarthy getting the axe. By the end of this season, he will have had a solid swing of five years, including three extremely talented rosters from 2021 to 2023. All three of those seasons, I turned to the postseason thinking Dallas had a contending roster. All three of those seasons, I felt like they were outmatched from a coaching perspective in the final game of the season. At some point, you have to prove you’re simply better than the best. McCarthy hasn’t. And he had a very solid opportunity to do so. So it’s time to move on.
Where does Dallas go from here? To me, the most successful formula is to reach for the best possible tactician and the best possible motivator. For years, I’ve watched these combinations of coaches win Super Bowls. The Kansas City Chiefs? For three of the last five years, Andy Reid has been the master tactician guiding the offense through a changing complexion with quarterback Patrick Mahomes, while defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has been the (very underrated) motivator of a changing and evolving unit that has never really gotten its due in three title wins. The Los Angeles Rams following the 2021 season? Head coach Sean McVay served as offensive tactician, but defensive coordinator Raheem Morris’ motivation served as the difference in a unit that held the Cincinnati Bengals scoreless in the fourth quarter of a come-from-behind Super Bowl win. That Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that won it all with Tom Brady in 2020? Bruce Arians was the emotional heartbeat all season long, but defensive coordinator Todd Bowles’ defensive game plan absolutely destroyed the Kansas City Chiefs for the title.
In recent history, I’ll take an all-star motivator and a genius tactician. Give me Ben Johnson or Bobby Slowik to run the offense tactically. And Mike Vrabel or Robert Saleh to command the defense. It’s the combination of experience and proven methods that wins out. Not flash. And not Bill Belichick, who would have to remake everything — regardless of what he wants to admit at this stage of his life.
And do not give me Deion Sanders in either position. This isn’t the NCAA, where the transfer portal offers high percentage roster changes, and a collection of young men who are far more prone to accepting wide-ranging criticism and change than grown men who value their career viability and paycheck more than Deion’s faded exploits and folksy-but-direct charisma. Don’t get me wrong. I respect what Deion has done at Colorado in a short window. But I also know that a salary cap, the necessity of building teams over time and the attitudes of grown men with families and real responsibilities tend to render gravitas to a low level in the NFL. The God Complex that works in college rarely works in the NFL. Most especially in 2024.
Get a No. 2 wideout who has some grit
Frankly, I’m fine with wideout who challenge their quarterbacks. If CeeDee Lamb ever had a bone to pick with Prescott, by all means — pick it. Maybe not on the sidelines of a nationally televised game, but behind closed doors, absolutely. I’m not entirely certain who this player would be, but I will say that living in Houston has provided me with enough of a vantage of Stefon Diggs to know he pushes practices. He elevates expectations. Yes, he’s coming off a season-ending knee injury, but I still believe he’s got something left in the tank for 2025. And I think playing on the same team with his brother Trevon Diggs would help squeeze every last drop out of him. Under normal circumstances, I wouldn’t advise adding a wide receiver with a prickly exterior who commands attention from his quarterback. But with Prescott, I think that’s a little of what he has been lacking.
Soft list Micah Parsons on the trade market next offseason
I don’t think the Cowboys should trade Parsons. But given that he expects to be the highest paid non-quarterback in the NFL next offseason, I think it’s worth seeing if some team is willing to mortgage to the hilt to add him. Quietly open the phone lines on him before signing his inevitable massive contract extension. There was a time when then-Carolina Panthers edge rusher Brian Burns commanded an offer of two first round picks from the Los Angeles Rams. I think there’s at least a slight chance that Parsons could command three firsts from a team. And I think in that situation, the Cowboys would be crazy not to take it.
Not only would such a trade open a significant amount of future salary cap space, but it would yield picks that Dallas could use to line the offensive and defensive lines during a micro-rebuild the next few seasons. Do I think it will happen? No. When I spoke to Cowboys executive vice president Stephen Jones last summer, he ranked edge rusher as the No. 2 most important position behind quarterback when it came to locking in talent and signing extensions. That tells me Dallas will mortgage to the salary cap to get Parsons done, and deal with the consequences later. If they’re smart, they won’t do that until seeing what kind of trade market Parsons has.
Trade back in this draft, accumulate picks and add to three areas
As we get closer to the 2025 NFL Draft, you’re going to hear about the lack of elite-level prospects. That doesn’t mean there isn’t talent to be found, including in the latter rounds. In fact, some executives believe that when the draft boards all shake out, picks in the 7-8-9 range might end up on the same talent shelf as picks at the very end of the first round. Whoever the Cowboys land in the draft order, the move should be trading out unless there is an absolutely elite offensive or defensive lineman. Running back is deep enough to get a player in the second or third rounder capable of starting fairly quickly at the NFL level. Whatever the tough process, it’s clear this is draft that will be conquered by having a lot of ammunition rather than high ammunition.
For now, with two months of the NFL season still left to be revealed, that’s the best shot I’ve got to fixing the Cowboys heading into the offseason. It’s basic and unfinished at this point — but miles ahead of the lunacy of pivoting off Dak Prescott for a rookie quarterback and courting Deion Sanders as some kind of realistic fix.
In mid November, that’s a media fix for ratings. And anyone who tells you otherwise is either in on the ruse or completely out of their depth when it comes to how the NFL works in 2024.
Now on to the Week 10 of the QB Room …
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There are already a lot of great Jayden Daniels throws to choose from this season, but you will not find a better-timed and positioned pass than this one to wideout Terry McLaurin. You might find one of equally value, but not better. With a free blitzer in his face, Daniels released the ball when McLaurin was fully covered up at the 35-yard line … 15 yards before McLaurin would come open. Not only that, the pass was perfectly positioned on the sideline, with the over-the-top safety having no chance to get anywhere near the play. This is perfection.
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Another sideline delight throw, with Matthew Stafford making sure only Cooper Kupp had a shot at the ball. Kupp spears it with one hand as he goes out of bounds. Yes, you can find an assembly line of these throws between Stafford and Kupp. I think I enjoyed this one because we’re very likely coming to the end of this connection in the offseason.
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This is 2022 Defensive Player of the yYear Nick Bosa latched onto the arm of Baker Mayfield for roughly 15 yards. Mayfield getting this ball off is a testament to how well he’s moving around physically this season. That he could even keep his composure long enough and have the guts to throw this ball for a completion is a testament to how far his confidence has come over the last year. This kind of thing is peak “I can do anything” Mayfield.
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About that Daniels to McLaurin sideline pass that we opened with … this ball from Russell Wilson to George Pickens was better. Sometimes you pull a Straight Flush, only to watch the guy sitting across from you flip a Royal Flush.
I’m going to end this segment on a second Wilson to Pickens throw, because Wilson is unlocking that level of “special” in Pickens that we knew was possible … but doubted would ever surface consistently. The ability of Pickens to contort himself for this catch and then control the ball to the ground is unicorn stuff. If he and Wilson keep it up at this rate, we’re going to be arguing about who the best quarterback-receiver tandem is in the NFL.
Stock Up
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
I’m buying Stroud this week against a Dallas Cowboys defense that has gotten absolutely smoked in four straight losses. Yes, the Cowboys are fifth in the NFL in passing pressures. But Stroud’s dominant, All-Pro level No. 1 wideout, Nico Collins, is expected to return for the Monday Night Football matchup, just in time for the Texans to make their turn into John Metchie III as the team’s third wideout. As Metchie continued his trek back from a successful battle against leukemia, the franchise continued to believe he would eventually get an opening and turn a corner on the field. After some strong flashes in the preseason, he finally found his footing against the Detroit Lions, playing 65 percent of the offensive snaps and catching five passes for 74 yards and his first career touchdown. The Texans also made what the team believes will be a critical change on the offensive line this week to improve pass protection, moving center Juice Scruggs to left guard, and left guard Jarrett Patterson to center. Stroud hasn’t had a 300-yard passing game since Oct. 6. I think that drought ends this week.
Stock Down
Joe Flacco, Indianapolis Colts
As much as we love his cannon arm and resilient personality, I’m selling Flacco hard heading into this week’s road game against the New York Jets. Flacco was sacked four times in the loss to the Buffalo Bills last week and continues to have feet made of concrete. And while it’s hard to lean on the Jets doing anything right at this point in the season, they have been — for the most part — a very effective pressure defense up front, with an ability to finish off pressure with sacks. At 3-7 (and 1-6 in their last seven games) the Jets have nothing left to lose against the Colts. Don’t be surprised if the Jets defense plays loose and aggressive in a home game that could see Indianapolis starting a rookie at left tackle, following a knee injury last week to Bernhard Raimann. To recap, that’s a slow-footed QB, facing a defense adepts at both pressures and sacks, with a rookie left tackle potentially stepping in for a start. Should be a long, long day for Flacco.
◦ After talking to two league sources Tuesday night dialed into the mindset of New York Jets team owner Woody Johnson —including one in the Jets building that had a very accurate and very early explanation of how the Robert Saleh firing went down — I’d suggest this: Aaron Rodgers better be very clear and measured when wandering into diatribes on the Pat McAfee Show concerning his views of how ownership should operate NFL teams. While nobody is going out of their way to defend Johnson’s decisions, even inside the Jets building, they are most definitely mindful that Rodgers even seeming to offer a critique of Johnson (even if he isn’t) can help make sure everyone in the coaching staff and top tiers of the personnel ranks get fired at the end of this season, followed by Rodgers getting punted in the offseason.
The quote that raised eyebrows, where Rodgers was wandering through his thoughts on the Chicago Bears firing offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, was this one, starting at the 2:34 mark:
The consensus for all fans is, ‘If we’re not winning now, then everybody needs to get the hell out.’ And listen, there are places, I’m sure, that are broken. Locker rooms that may not be sticking together or staffs that need a shakeup from time to time. But I would continue to preach patience for players and coaches.
But you know what it starts with? Ownership. Ownership has to come out and make strong statements. ‘This is the plan — this is what we’re doing. We’re gonna trust the process or trust the guys that are in place.’ Unless there’s a major problem, an issue, an arrest, or something that throws a wrench in the plans.
A few things to unpack here. First, from what I have been told, Johnson is extremely frustrated with how the season has unfolded. Particularly after making recent moves in the coaching staff and on the roster to try and right the ship, including the addition of Davante Adams, which was specifically made for Rodgers. Second, he’s still measuring how he wants the team to move forward in 2025, and that includes essentially everything and everyone.
There has been a sense of the unknown in the organization for months about how a Donald Trump election win could impact the franchise, with a presumption that Johnson would be in line for some kind of role in the next administration — either in Trump’s cabinet, among his advisors or another ambassadorship in the UK or elsewhere. But a source in the building noted, even if Johnson is headed to other duties in the future there is going to be plenty of time for him to turn over the Jets organization and set a new course before he takes on any appointment.
The bottom line? The New York Jets aren’t the Green Bay Packers. They have a singular owner who listens to a lot of people and hears most everything that could reflect on him. When Rodgers talks about what NFL ownership should or shouldn’t be doing, he’s not on a team that has a board of directors anymore. If there’s even a perception that Rodgers is making some kind of statement about Johnson, even if it’s when he’s talking about another team or in nebulous generalities about NFL ownership, it can change lives and futures very fast. And right now, everyone in that Jets organization is holding onto their job by a thread.
◦ We’re getting pretty far along in the college football season and you can definitely sense some fading hopes amongst personnel evaluators that a quarterback in the 2025 NFL Draft is suddenly going to flip a switch and tear through the remainder of the college season and potentially the College Football Playoff and present himself as a bonafide star. I still think there’s a lot of hope that Miami’s Cam Ward becomes that guy.
But as it stands now, staffs haven’t really done much work on the 2026 class (aside from potential 2025 junior draft declares) and effectively nothing on the 2027 class, and yet there seems to be more interest in a couple players in those classes — Texas’ Arch Manning, who hasn’t played much since since the start of October, and Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola, who hasn’t played well since the start of October — than most of the QBs that are expected to be available in the 2025 class. South Carolina’s redshirt freshman LaNorris Sellers also has some scouting department fans, too. Remember that name.
In the midst of all of this, one AFC personnel executive posed an interesting suggestion about the upcoming quarterback class through the prism of Atlanta Falcons rookie Michael Penix Jr., who was selected with the eighth overall pick in the 2024 draft.
“I could get a team calling the Falcons [about Penix] after all of their work is in on this [class],” he said. “He’s a better gamble than all of [the 2025 quarterbacks]. We have a couple months left, but right now I would take Penix over this entire class. There’s not a lot of guys worth standing on the table for.”
The rationale for the suggestion was this: The Sunday dud against the New Orleans Saints notwithstanding, Cousins has played at a high enough level for the Falcons to easily justify him as the starter through the end of the 2025 season. And if Atlanta can win even one playoff game this year, the team would be justified to trade Penix for a collection of draft picks or a player and picks that could help the Falcons maximize a possible Super Bowl push from 2025 to 2027. The potential opportunity in play would be the Falcons getting Penix an end-of-season start (if seeding is locked in) against the Carolina Panthers on Jan. 5, which could showcase him for an offseason trade.
The hope? One (or multiple) teams in play to draft a quarterback in 2025 would see the weakness in the class and rather make a run at a player with a higher evaluation and some NFL experience under his belt. Of course, one of the problems in all of this is the general weakness of the 2025 draft, and the feeling that it will have a minimal number of first-round grades on draft boards. Draft capital in 2025 is going to be worth considerably less than 2024, and that could be a problem for any team hoping to pry Penix loose from Atlanta.
◦ I’m not going to get into it before I have to, but adding onto that last note: There’s already significant apprehension about the risk/reward equation of drafting Shedeur Sanders. A solid amount of it surrounds his dad and Colorado Buffaloes coach Deion Sanders, the former NFL star and Hall of Famer who has been vocal about his son’s future and who will also make a prominent appearance in Shedeur’s scouting reports. Right now, it’s clear Deion and his considerable megaphone in the media is getting weighed.
A longtime AFC executive who has held some powerful positions over the last two decades said he viewed Sanders as “Tyrod Taylor 2.0,” then remarked, “I don’t think the talent level is worth all the extra stuff that is going to come along with him.” The extra stuff remark was clearly about Deion’s megaphone, if we’re just being 100 percent about it. There’s a lot of talk about this element right now in the lower spectrum of NFL personnel circles. If Colorado makes the college football playoff, that will ramp up. And by the time the NFL combine arrives in February, it will be a central topic of Sanders as a prospect. (Don’t kill me for saying it … I’m just telling you what is going on. It already seems to be a lightning-rod topic in mid November, which is saying something.)
As it stands, Deion is already on record saying he will step in if he deems that the “wrong” organization is in line to draft his son — similar to Archie Manning stepping in when Eli Manning was drafted by the San Diego Chargers first overall in the 2004 NFL Draft.
◦ I have no idea if newly elevated Thomas Brown is going to be a better play-caller than the fired Shane Waldron for the Chicago Bears, but one thing is clear: Part of this move is head coach Matt Eberflus recognizing that saving his job is a road that goes through Caleb Williams for the remainder of the season. This is the last card in the deck in that respect, and if Brown struggles to get Williams pointed in the right direction — as he struggled to get Bryce Young up and running as the Carolina Panthers’ offensive coordinator last season — then it’s going to be lights out on the employment of Eberflus and his coaching staff.
For now, I will say this about Brown: I tend to shy away from putting a massive amount of stock into what happened during his tenure as the Panthers’ offensive coordinator and short-lived play-caller last season. He received the duties from head coach Frank Reich in mid-October of a season where the inside of the building — including the coaching offices — had already turned into a Lord of The Flies situation. A mere three weeks later, a flailing Reich took the play-calling responsibilities back. The entire Panthers organization felt poisoned by that point and it’s hard to assess successes and failures tied to that period.
For now, what’s clear is that Brown has to design and call a game that gets Williams making faster decisions. As much as we can blame the offense line and overall lack of balance — and those are legitimate issues — there’s no denying that Williams is reverting back to his 2023 season at USC, when he was extending plays to an arrogant degree. I wrote about this concern back in December of 2023, when I asked evaluators to compare him to Drake Maye as a prospect. There’s little doubt that some of the hero ball at USC just cannot exist on the NFL level. Brown getting Williams to understand that is paramount.
And one last thing: If you’re going to blame the offensive line for all of his problems, take a look at the Washington Commanders. Jayden Daniels is operating behind a line with as many problems as the Bears’ core group, and with less talent at the skill positions. Either Washington offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury is a miracle worker, or Daniels simply has a better feel for the position right now. Maybe it’s both. Whatever it is, both Thomas Brown and Caleb Williams need to strive for that kind of synergy.
◦ To close it out, I’m calling it now: Backup quarterback Drew Lock is going to start some games for the New York Giants. Partially due to the continued rollercoaster that is Daniel Jones, and partially to ice the $23 million injury guarantee for the 2025 season. Jones has been the epitome of the below-average starter who really never gets you anywhere, but occasionally plays well enough to give some oxygen to the flicker hope that he can be something more. Now we’re reaching the critical point of 2024 where the Giants are realistically out of the playoff picture at 2-8, and spending their bye week trying to figure out the risk/reward of continuing to play Jones in Week 11 and beyond.
Pay close attention here. I think Jones’ days are limited as the starting quarterback for the Giants. A contract-related benching is coming, and then a pivot into rebooting the spot in 2025.
