The Mets are in strong position to be smartly aggressive on the free agent market this offseason.
With just $170 million or so committed to the payroll for 2025 after a ton of money came off the books, and with their payroll situation in very strong shape over the next half decade, Steve Cohen, David Stearns, and the rest of the front office have a tremendous opportunity.
Of course, the Mets won’t just throw money around with reckless abandon.
Not with the savvy and measured Stearns running baseball operations.
The above is why you won’t find two of the biggest starting pitching free agents — Corbin Burnes and Max Fried — on this list.
There’s a chance one or both of them sign contracts that look like relative steals six or seven years for now, with Burnes (who could get a seven-year deal) and/or Fried having stayed healthy and ace-like during that span. But long-term contracts for pitchers over 30 years old very rarely work out.
You also won’t find Pete Alonso, Sean Manaea, or Luis Severino on here, but that’s just because they’re internal free agents. This list will focus on external free agents only.
But Alonso and Manaea should be among the Mets’ top targets. You can read the case for Alonso here and the case for Manaea here.
As far as the top five external free agent targets? Here they are…
No. 5: Alex Bregman
Bregman should be viewed as a potential fallback option if the Mets aren’t able to nab their top target, whose name you can probably guess. And Bregman could fit in a scenario where the Mets re-sign Alonso (Bregman at third base, Vientos at DH) or where they don’t (Bregman at third base, Vientos at first base).
There are reports that Bregman could be seeking an enormous deal, and some projections have him getting as many as seven years and close to $200 million. If that turns out to be where the bidding goes, the Mets should pass. But if Bregman’s deal is reasonable — something like five years — he could make a ton of sense.
Bregman, who has never struck out more than 97 times in a season and who has been one of the best hitters in the game for nearly a decade (and is a strong defender at third base), seems like a better bet than fellow free agent infielder Willy Adames, who is just a year younger than Bregman and whose strikeout rate is alarming.
If the Mets believe Bregman’s relatively down 2024 was a blip (he had a 118 OPS+ and the lowest OBP since his rookie season), it could be smart to pounce. Pairing Bregman with Francisco Lindor would give the Mets two of the best all-around infielders in baseball.
No. 4: Blake Snell
Snell hasn’t been nearly as reliable as Burnes or Fried when it comes to providing 180 or so innings a season or pitching deep in games. But when he’s on, he’s one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball.
And while it could take a seven-year deal to nab Burnes and a six-or seven-year deal to get Fried, it might only take a three-or four-year contract to sign Snell.
Snell can often walk too many batters (he walked 5.0 per nine in his Cy Young season in 2023), but he mostly makes up for that by missing tons of bats and limiting hits. He allowed just 5.6 hits per nine last season after surrendering a league-low 5.8 per nine in 2023.
Entering his age-32 season and coming off a year where he tossed just 104.0 innings over 20 starts, there is risk here. But there’s also tremendous upside.
No. 3: Walker Buehler
Buehler is the only pitcher available this offseason via free agency who has legitimate ace potential, but who almost certainly won’t require a long-term deal. it seems likely that he’ll ink a one- or two-year deal (potentially with the second year being a player option) in order to build his value back up following Tommy John surgery and a difficult regular season in 2024.
Another plus regarding Buehler is that the Dodgers did not extend a qualifying offer to him, which means any team that signs him will not lose a draft pick for doing so.
When Buehler is right, he is a No. 1 starter. From 2018 to 2021 he had a 2.82 ERA (3.16 FIP) and 0.98 WHIP while striking out 620 batters in 564.0 innings — a strikeout rate a tick under 10.0 per nine.
And while Buehler struggled this past season during what was his first year back after having Tommy John surgery in August of 2022 (his second TJS, after also having the procedure in 2015), there are reasons to believe he’ll be able to return to form in 2025 as he enters his age-30 season.
No. 2: Roki Sasaki
Sasaki is quite simply one of the most talented pitchers to ever hit the free agent market. He has a fastball that sits in the high-90s and touches 102 mph, an otherworldly splitter, and impeccable command.
And since he’s just 23 years old has accumulated only four years of service time in Japan, Sasaki won’t be able to sign anything but a minor league deal — with his contract counting toward his signing team’s international bonus pool allotment.
The above levels the playing field. And the rumors surrounding Sasaki are all over the place. Some have him all but certain to go to the Dodgers. Others have him preferring a small market. Some others say he wants to be the biggest star wherever he goes. So … no one really knows anything it seems.
Whoever signs Sasaki will be getting a pitcher who needs to prove he can handle a big workload (he’s never thrown more than 129.1 innings), but who has a legitimate chance to be the best pitcher in baseball.
No. 1: Juan Soto
Anyone surprised?
Soto is not only the best player on the free agent market, but one of the best players to ever hit the free agent market.
Add to the above that he just turned 26 years old, is coming off a monster season, and is a proven playoff masher and you get someone whose deal could eclipse 14 years and $600 million.
Fortunately for the Mets, they are in an incredibly strong position when it comes to their ability to make that kind of offer to Soto and not have any issue building a dangerous team around him for years to come if he takes it.
