Identifying players who have run particularly hot or cold in recent weeks will be the goal of his space over the 2024 NFL season.
Spotting guys who are “due” won’t always work out because my children recently lost my magic eight ball, leaving me powerless to predict the future. Nevertheless, we persist in finding NFL players who have overperformed their opportunity and those who have been on the wrong side of what we’ll call variance. Because “luck” is so crass and unsophisticated.
First, let’s get into teams who appear due for touchdown regression, good or bad.
San Francisco 49ers
Total yards: 1st
Touchdowns: 13th
I’ve written once or twice or 11 times this season about how cold the Niners offense is running. Perhaps it’s the Regression Reaper finally visiting Kyle Shanahan’s maniacally efficient offensive scheme. Whatever it is, it has obliterated Brock Purdy’s touchdown rate (4.2 percent) and crushed the usual touchdown upside of Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk, who is now done for the season with an ACL injury.
Don’t give up on the 49ers on your fantasy squad. The Niners are seventh in expected points added (EPA) per play and eighth in offensive success rate despite their relative struggles. They rank third in first downs and third in net yards per play. And it’s not as if the 49ers aren’t reaching the red zone. Only the Commanders have a higher rate of drives ending in a score this year.
Eventually — maybe as soon as this week against a miserable Dallas defense — the team’s touchdown production will start matching up with its yardage output. That should be excellent for Jordan Mason, who has seen 79 percent of the Niners’ inside-the-10 rushing attempts, scoring three TDs on 19 green zone rushes. Mason has a single touchdown on seven inside-the-five carries.
Buffalo Bills
Total yards: 12th
Touchdowns: 4th
I’m not too worried that the Bills’ touchdown production is going to plummet anytime soon. Maybe running hot on touchdowns is just how it is with an offense headed by an unstoppable red zone weapon like Josh Allen.
Buffalo is third in EPA per play and third in drop back EPA (that’s not abnormal for a dual-threat QB). They have the sixth highest rate of offensive drives ending in a score. I included the Bills here because, for better or worse, they are running not in the touchdowns department.
Allen’s touchdown rate, in case you’re wondering, stands at 6.4 percent, slightly above his career mark of 5.4 percent.
Houston Texans
Total yards: 8th
Touchdowns: 14th
Houston offensive coordinator Bobby Slowick, after the Texans were a horrifying 22 percent under their expected pass rate on first downs in Week 7, is not beating the fraud allegations. It’s inexcusable stuff from Slowick, who continues to pretend he doesn’t have an elite quarterback at his disposal.
The Texans are now 19th in EPA per play. They rank 26th in offensive success rate, on par with the down-bad Panthers and Colts and below the Giants. And even still, Stroud and the Texans are eighth in total yards and seventh in first downs. If you, like me, believe the Texans will eventually run their offense through Stroud and the passing attack, Houston’s touchdown production should get a boost. Letting Stroud cook might lead to someone other than Joe Mixon scoring a touchdown for Houston.
Positive Regression Candidates
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes (KC)
I’m not one to indulge in Mahomes copium. I’ve spent an inordinate amount of time in articles and on the Rotoworld Football Show urging folks to stop thinking of Mahomes as an elite fantasy option and more as the Terminator of game managers. Patrick Mahomes: A blend of Alex Smith circa 2014 and the T-1000.
Still, there’s reason to believe some (good) regression could be headed Mahomes’ way in a Kansas City offense that has been below its expected drop back rate in each of its past five games (they were an Arhtur Smith-style -9 percent in Week 7 against the Niners). Mahomes is fifth in passing success rate this season. He’s sixth in red zone pass attempts (28) and has just one touchdown on 12 inside-the-ten attempts.
Maybe relying on Mecole Hardman or Xavier Worthy (more on him later) as his new WR1 will stop any and all positive regression from coming to fruition for Mahomes. But I wouldn’t be stunned if the greatest QB of all time starts getting a little more fortunate with touchdown production.
Running Back
Tank Bigsby (JAC)
How can the guy leading all running backs in rush yards over expected (per NextGen Stats) be in line for positive regression? Well, he could run hotter on touchdowns with the extremely high-value touches he’s getting.
Bigsby, who may have supplanted Travis Etienne as the Jaguars’ lead back, has just two touchdowns on 13 rushes inside the ten yards line in 2024. Only four backs have more inside-the-10 attempts.
Jacksonville clearly sees Bigsby as the end-of-drive hammer. He has 19 red zone rushes on the season to 13 for Etienne. Bigsby’s role will of course depend on Etienne’s ability to play through a shoulder issue. His work inside the ten yard line should one day come with more touchdowns. Those opportunities should continue to be there for Bigsby; only seven teams have been more run heavy in the red zone than Jacksonville.
Wide Receiver
Xavier Worthy (KC)
Worthy has been quite bad through six games of his rookie season. Some might say Worthy’s 2024 season has been alarmingly bad. Others might agree.
Worthy has been targeted on a humble 16 percent of his pass routes through Week 7. That includes carefully orchestrated efforts to get the football into the hands of the fastest guy in NFL history. That the loss of Hollywood Brown and Rashee Rice and the fading dominance of Travis Kelce hasn’t naturally boosted Worthy’s opportunities and production is a major problem for his long-term outlook. But you knew that already.
Worthy in Week 7 against the 49ers racked up 133 air yards, the third most on the week (he had 19 actual yards). That included a would-be 72-yard score if not for a bad Mahomes overthrow. No one else on the Chiefs had more than 40 air yards against the Niners. So it’s Worthy or bust as a downfield option in the hyper-conservative KC offense. That should create a volatile receiving profile, and with a volatile profile comes the good side of volatility, also known as coming down with the occasional 30 or 40 or 50 yards reception.
In a former iteration of the Chiefs offense, one in which Mahomes is dropping back at a 65-70 percent clip, Worthy would have brain-rattling weekly upside. In this version of the KC offense, he still has some intrigue. And an extended absence for JuJu Smith-Schuster (hamstring) could leave the Chiefs no choice but to lean more on the rookie. Fantasy managers shouldn’t pull the proverbial plug on the idea of Worthy as a high-upside flex.
Troy Franklin (DEN)
I guess Franklin is Denver’s new WR1 after Courtland Sutton completed a Thursday night humiliation ritual in Week 7 of running 28 pass routes without a target. A despair yards champion, Sutton seems like he’s lost the WR1 mantle in the worst passing offense in living memory.
Franklin has a slight edge in targets over Sutton over the past couple games as his route participation has finally ramped up. Operating almost exclusively as a boundary receiver, Franklin was targeted on a strong 28 percent of his routes against the Saints last Thursday.
It’s going to be exceedingly difficult for any pass catcher to keep a good thing going in this Denver offense. They’re 25th in early down neutral pass rate and Box Nix ranks 31st out of 32 qualifying quarterbacks in completion rate over expected. Broncos wideouts are best ignored outside of the deepest, sickest leagues.
George Pickens (PIT)
Pickens now has 26 receptions, 363 yards, and precisely zero touchdowns in 2024. He’s second in air yards behind only DK Metcalf over the past two weeks. No wideout has been more unlucky than Pickens, a sentiment with which he would likely agree, seeing that he appears mostly miserable on the field.
It’s not only that Pickens is 18th in receiving yards without a single TD, it’s that he’s seen a pile of high-value looks. Pickens ranks third in inside-the-ten targets (6) and third in inside-the-20 looks (10) without a single score. He’s come excruciatingly close a time or three, but hasn’t cashed in for six. With Russell Wilson appearing for now to be an upgrade for Pittsburgh pass catchers, Pickens — who has a gaudy 50 percent air yards share in the Steelers offense — could be in for a nice little touchdown-heavy run in the coming weeks.
Jerry Jeudy (CLE)
It sure seemed like the Browns, after sending Amari Cooper to Buffalo last week, would have no choice but to feed Jeudy. After all, Jeudy had seen 39 percent of the team’s air yards and a solid 23 percent target share over the past few games.
Jeudy in Week 7 did what Jeudy does and tanked against the Bengals. He had one catch for 18 yards on five targets while seeing 63 air yards to Cedric Tillman’s team-leading 110 air yards, the seventh most among pass catchers in Week 7.
This is where I feed you your daily allotment of copium: Jeudy led the Browns in pass routes and was used across the formation. Though his 15.5 average depth of target was a little high for our liking — we want the easy stuff for our receivers — the end of the Deshaun Watson era could mean heady days are ahead of Jeudy and the rest of the Browns pass catchers. But only if the team does the right thing and starts Jameis Winston over Dorian Thompson-Robinson, perhaps the only NFL quarterback worse than Watson.
Tyler Lockett (SEA)
Everyone in Seattle’s offense besides Ken Walker is running pretty cold. That includes Lockett, who over the past two weeks ranks sixth in air yards and 16th in receiving yards. This, of course, is a function of the wildly pass-heavy Seahawks offense, which, since Week 2, has been 11 percent over its expected drop back rate. They sport the league’s third highest red zone pass rate.
Weird game script stopped the Hawks from their usual glut of drop backs in Week 7 against Atlanta. They were still 6 percent over their expected drop back rate and, importantly, remained pass-first on first downs. There’s every indication that Seattle will continue establishing the pass. Their usually-porous defense will all but guarantee Geno Smith and company are chasing points. That’s a decidedly good thing for Lockett, whose profile points to much more weekly upside than Jaxon Smith-Midjigba.
Negative Regression Candidates
Quarterback
Jordan Love (GB)
Commanding a rare kind of mastery over his team’s offense, Love has run hotter than my feet in dress shoes of late. He leads the NFL with an 8.4 percent touchdown rate. Love over his past two games has seven touchdown tosses, good for a 10.8 percent touchdown rate.
This isn’t to say you should consider benching Love for some waiver wire quarterback or get cute with a high variance option. Just know, as Love and the Packers head into Week 8, that things could regress for Green Bay’s third straight Hall of Fame QB. That the Packers are facing the Jaguars probably means Love will throw another four touchdowns and you’ll submit a formal complaint to Patrick Daugherty asking him to ban the Regression Files.
Wide Receivers
Keon Coleman (BUF)
As JJ Zachariason pointed out on the X platform, formerly known as Twitter, Coleman’s big Week 7 outing against the Titans (four catches, 125 yards) was not a product of Amari Cooper opening up the Bills passing attack, whatever that means.
In fact, as JJ so astutely noted, Cooper — in his first game with the Bills — was not on the field for any of Coleman’s seven targets. Make that mean what you will, but Coleman’s top-10 fantasy performance against a stellar Titans secondary had nothing to do with Cooper’s presence.
Coleman’s 25 air yards per reception in Week 7 is a clear invitation for the Regression Reaper to drop by and pay the rookie a visit in Week 8 against the run-funnel Seahawks. Don’t you dare get excited about Coleman. If you do, at least know he’s likely going to be a maddening fantasy option in a Buffalo offense with a 56 percent drop back rate and a -2 percent pass rate over expected.
Cedric Tillman (CLE)
Tillman, quite surprisingly, emerged as Cleveland’s WR1 in Week 7 against the Bengals. He becomes the 52nd wideout of the past four years to somehow become a team’s top receiving option when Jerry Jeudy is expected to be in said role. So it goes.
Tillman last week led the Browns with 110 air yards, eight targets, and 81 yards in a game script inflated by a Bengals blowout. It all came out of nowhere. To give you an idea of how out of nowhere: Tillman had run 28 pass routes over the previous three games and had zero targets on those routes. He had all of three receptions going into Week 7. The departure of Amari Cooper got Tillman into the Browns’ three-receiver sets, which they run as much as almost any team in the NFL.
Can Tillman keep it going in Week 8 and beyond? Well, maybe. The Browns are certainly pass heavy enough to fuel the sort of volume Tillman would need to become a reliable fantasy option. Through Week 7, Cleveland has a 67 percent drop back rate, 5 percent over their expected rate. They lead the NFL with a 65 percent early-down neutral pass rate.
I would urge some amount of brake pumping on Tillman for those who pick him up on the waiver wire this week.
