Republicans are projected to keep control of the House of Representatives, handing the party total control of Washington with President-elect Trump back in the White House in January.
Decision Desk HQ projected the GOP would hold the House by winning its 218th seat on Monday, the number needed for a majority in the lower chamber.
The result is a major win for Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who skyrocketed up from obscurity to lead the House GOP not only legislatively, but also in a large role in its campaign infrastructure.
Republicans saved some of their most vulnerable incumbents, like Reps. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) and David Valadao (R-Calif.), while defeating several vulnerable Democratic incumbents. State Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Pa.) unseated Rep. Susan Wild (D-Pa.), while businessman Rob Bresnahan defeated Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Pa.).
Those results made up for some GOP losses. Three first-term New York Republicans — Reps. Anthony D’Esposito, Marc Molinaro and Brandon Williams — lost their reelection bids, as did Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Ore.).
The final House breakdown is uncertain, with ballots still being counted for several races in California. But Republicans are expected to have another slim majority heading into the new Congress.
Those exact numbers will matter a lot for Johnson’s political future, for which policies Republicans can enact, and how the lower chamber will function — or not function.
Trump gave the Speaker a shoutout in his victory speech from Palm Beach, Fla., in the early hours of Wednesday: “It also looks like we’ll be keeping control of the House of Representatives. And I want to thank Mike Johnson. I think he’s doing a terrific job.”
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) and House GOP Chair Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) also joined Trump at Mar-a-Lago to celebrate his victory, in an indication of the House GOP’s strong commitment to backing the Trump administration.
Top House Republicans have been working with Senate Republicans for months on legislative plans that they can swiftly send to Trump in the first 100 days of total Republican control. Those include extending the tax cuts passed in Trump’s first term, boosting border wall funding, repealing climate initiatives and promoting school choice.
But there are likely to be plenty of obstacles for Republicans’ ambitious agenda. The last two years of the historically slim House GOP majority was marked by intraparty disputes that, at times, brought legislative activity to a halt. That chaos was headlined by the historic ouster of former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.).
Uncertainty about Republicans’ margin also raises immediate questions about Johnson’s future.
The Speaker has been explicit about his intention to seek the gavel again if Republicans win unified control of government. But he has faced opposition from a few hard-line conservatives and already survived one attempt to remove him earlier this year, led by Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and Thomas Massie (R-Ky.). House Democrats helped halt that attempt.
To keep the gavel, Johnson will need to secure a majority vote on the House floor when it convenes on Jan. 3, 2025, requiring near-unanimous Republican support.
Johnson told The Hill in an interview on the campaign trail in October that he intends “to have my party’s support for Speaker” on the House floor.
The GOP victory also notably denies House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) the opportunity to rise to be the first Black Speaker of the House.
The battle for the House was considered nearly as close as the race for the White House, with battleground districts stretching from coast to coast, the bulk of which were in states that were not competitive in the presidential election. Democrats would have needed a net gain of at least four seats to win control of the House and had hoped to get a boost from voters concerned about the Republicans’ position on reproductive rights.
In an interview on Election Day, National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) Chair Richard Hudson (R-N.C.) — who is seeking another term in the position — pointed to several areas of focus for the House GOP campaign arm that gave him confidence about the election.
Splitting the cost of television ads with candidates in a way that allowed them to take advantage of lower candidate rates allowed them to make each dollar go farther, Hudson said. And he also pointed to the NRCC opening more than 40 field offices, or “battle stations.”
“I feel like the last couple cycles, national parties have gotten away from ground game, and we made a major investment in our ground game this time around,” Hudson said.
The electoral result is likely to influence the legislative fights that remain in the final weeks of the 118th Congress. Hard-line conservatives will be eager to delay consideration of must-pass proposals until the new year, when a Republican Senate and White House could result in more conservative policies and lower spending levels.
The House will have to take action on a number of items in the lame-duck period. Government funding, for instance, runs out on Dec. 20.
Mike Lillis contributed.
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