Roob’s Random Observations: Inside A.J. Brown’s hidden numbers originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia
A look at A.J. Brown’s season from a football perspective and not a drama perspective, remembering an incredible Eagles-Steelers game from 24 years ago and a ridiculous Saquon Barkley stat (of course).
Here’s our Week 15 edition of Roob’s 10 Random Eagles Observations.
1. It’s actually remarkable what A.J. Brown has done this year with reduced targets and opportunities. The narrative that he’s having a down year couldn’t be farther from the truth. Very few wide receivers in recent NFL history have done more with less. His targets are down 26 percent from the last two years, yet he’s among the league leaders in yards per game, yards per catch and yards per target. Brown is actually having an incredible year all things considered. Brown averaged 8.9 targets per game in his first two seasons with the Eagles, but that’s plunged to 6.6 this year as the Eagles’ offensive focus has turned to running the ball and Jalen Hurts at times has been reluctant to throw to Brown. Yet A.J. is actually fifth in the NFL with 84 yards per game, so he’s made the most of the targets he’s gotten in the 10 games he’s played. Brown is averaging 12.7 yards per target, and to put that in perspective, it’s the highest by an Eagle since the NFL began tracking targets in 1992, by far highest in the NFL this year and 9th-highest by any WR on record. He’s also got a catch percentage of 73 percent, 13th-highest of 67 receivers who’ve been targeted at least 50 times. Brown missed those three games early in the year, but he’s still on pace for 1,170 yards, which is wild. His 17.4 per-catch average is 2nd-highest in the league – Jameson Williams of the Lions is at 18.2 – and he’s on pace to become only the seventh player on record to average over 12 ½ yards per target and 17 yards per catch in the same season. It’s scary to imagine what kind of damage he’d be doing if he was back around nine targets per game.
2A. One more on A.J.: I’ve heard people comparing him to Terrell Owens and it’s a terrible comparison. The only similarity is that both were incredible wide receivers. Beyond that? Nothing. T.O. was a genuinely divisive force who set out to tear apart the locker room when he didn’t get the contract extension he wanted after the 2004 season. A.J. wants the ball because he wants to win so badly. T.O. did everything he could to divide the locker room and derail that 2005 season. And he succeeded by putting himself ahead of the team. Remarkable talent. Awful teammate. A.J. is a quality person, outstanding teammate, team-first guy and unquestioned leader. He just wants to win.
2B. It blows my mind that T.O. and Donovan are still bickering back and forth on social media about Super Bowl XXXIX and the 2005 collapse. It was 20 years ago.
3. I keep hearing people claim Russell Wilson isn’t a Hall of Famer, but that’s ridiculous. No question he is. He’s reached the postseason eight out of 13 years, took two teams to the Super Bowl, won one and played well in both, 10 winning seasons, 48 games over .500 in his career, 5th-highest career passer rating all-time (100.1), over 5,000 rushing yards, 2nd-highest rushing average in NFL history at 5.3 (behind only Jamaal Charles), 9th-best interception ratio in NFL history, 6th-highest touchdown percentage in NFL history. No-brainer.
4. Jahan Dotson has gone nine straight games playing at least 20 offensive snaps with one or fewer catch. He’s the first wide receiver with one or fewer catch in nine straight games with 20 or more snaps in 12 years, since Devery Henderson of the Saints did it in 10 straight games in 2012.
5A. In just 13 games, Saquon Barkley has increased his career rushing average from 4.3 yards per carry all the way up to 4.7. He had the 57th-highest yards-per-carry average in NFL history coming into the season (minimum 1,000 carries) and he’s now tied for 14th. That’s just insane.
5B. Playing running back is a young man’s game, and with 77 more yards Barkley will become only the fifth back with 1,700 yards in his seventh NFL season or later. The only backs to rush for 1,700 yards this late in their career are Barry Sanders with 2,053 yards in his ninth season in 1997, Jim Brown with 1,863 yards in his seventh season in 1963 and Tiki Barber with 1,860 yards in his ninth season in 2005. Barkley is also only the 13th player in NFL history to have 1,300-yard rushing seasons six years apart – he ran for 1,307 as a rookie with the Giants in 2018. To have a season like this in Year 7 is truly remarkable.
6. The Eagles had 11 defensive backs play at least 150 snaps last year, and only two of them have played 150 snaps this year – Reed Blankenship and Darius Slay. The others are James Bradberry, Sydney Brown, Kevin Byard, Terrell Edmunds, Justin Evans, Josh Jobe, Eli Ricks, Kelee Ringo and Bradley Roby.
7. If the Eagles finish the year with the NFL’s No. 1 defense – and they’re currently about 7 ½ yards per game ahead of the Titans – it will be the fourth straight year that the defensive coordinator of the No. 1 defense in the NFL has Eagles ties. In 2021, the Bills were No. 1 under defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier, in 2022 the 49ers were No. 1 with defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans and last year the Browns were No. 1 with defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz. Frazier coached here under Andy Reid from 1999 through 2022, Ryans played here from 2012 through 2015 under Reid and Chip Kelly and Schwartz was Doug Pederson’s defensive coordinator from 2016 through 2020. The last coordinator of the No. 1 defense that didn’t have Eagles ties was Brandon Staley with the Rams in 2020.
8. Whenever the Eagles face the Steelers, I love thinking about the 2000 Eagles-Steelers game at Three Rivers Stadium. It was an all-timer. With 3:47 minutes left, the Steelers took a 23-13 lead on Kris Brown’s 40-yard field goal. The Eagles only needed four plays to score on Donovan McNabb’s 13-yard TD pass to Brian Mitchell with 2:29 left – B. Mitch’s only touchdown catch as an Eagle. Tim Hauck recovered David Akers’ perfect onside kick at the Eagles’ 32-yard-line, and without any timeouts, the Eagles drove down to the Steelers’ 24-yard-line – big play on the drive was a 19-yard McNabb-to-Torrance Small completion. As the clock kept ticking, the Eagles rushed the field goal team onto the field and somehow Akers got a 42-yard attempt off with 0:01 on the clock. He nailed it to send the game into overtime. The Eagles won the toss, drove 39 yards – big play was a 16-yard McNabb-to-Stanley Pritchett pass – and Akers won it with a 42-yard field goal after 4:16 had elapsed. So the Steelers’ offense left the field with a 10-point lead, never got on the field again, and they lost the game.
9. The Eagles are averaging 180.6 net passing yards per game and allowing 178.5 net passing yards per game. No team has both gained and allowed fewer than 182 net passing yards in the same season since 1978.
10. Can Jordan Mailata make the Pro Bowl despite missing four games? He certainly deserves it. He’s not only the highest-rated offensive lineman on Pro Football Focus with an absurd grade of 95.0 but the highest-rated player at any position. He’s been lights out in the nine games he’s played. It’s tough making that first Pro Bowl, but I feel like this offensive line is getting a lot of national recognition and with the success Saquon Barkley is having and the Eagles winning nine straight games as well as his unique story, people are going to finally recognize Mailata as one of the best left tackles in the game. Darius Slay made the Pro Bowl last year despite playing just 12 games – although he had made five previously. Lane Johnson made it in 2019 after playing 12 games. And in 2014 Jason Kelce made the Pro Bowl playing 12 games and Evan Mathis made it after playing just nine games. Jason Peters made it playing 13 games in 2010. League-wide, 36 offensive linemen have been named to a Pro Bowl team in the last decade despite playing 13 or fewer games. Mailata is playing at an elite level, and he deserves to be recognized for it.
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