The Patriots are one of five teams with three wins, but they own the tiebreaker over all of them as a result of having the worst strength of schedule. There are three two-win teams ahead of the Patriots in the draft order — the Jaguars, Raiders and Giants — and the only way for New England to move up in the order (assuming it doesn’t win another game) is for at least one of those three teams to win another game.
So, if the Patriots need help, where might that help come from? Here’s a breakdown of the remaining schedules for the five teams with the best odds of landing the No. 1 pick, per ESPN FPI’s model.
New England Patriots
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Week 14: Bye
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Week 15: at Arizona Cardinals
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Week 16: at Buffalo Bills
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Week 17: vs. Los Angeles Chargers
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Week 18: vs. Buffalo Bills
The Patriots have the hardest remaining schedule in the league, based on their upcoming opponents having a combined .708 win percentage. The Bills have already clinched the AFC East for a fifth straight season, but their Week 18 matchup in Foxboro could still matter if the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs is at stake. Buffalo trails Kansas City by one game in the race for the top seed.
The Cardinals are a formidable team with a dual-threat quarterback in Kyle Murray. The Patriots have struggled against those kinds of QBs in recent years. The Chargers have been one of the most improved teams in the league during Jim Harbaugh’s first season as head coach.
Maybe the Patriots could beat the Chargers or Cardinals if they play penalty- and turnover-free football, although that seems unlikely based on how many self-inflicted mistakes New England has made in recent games.
It’s probably fair to assume the Patriots won’t win another game, which would clinch back-to-back seasons of four or fewer wins. That hasn’t happened to the Patriots since a four-year span from 1967 through 1970.
Jacksonville Jaguars
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Week 14: at Tennessee Titans
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Week 15: vs. New York Jets
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Week 16: at Las Vegas Raiders
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Week 17: vs. Tennessee Titans
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Week 18: at Indianapolis Colts
The Jaguars have the easiest remaining schedule in the league, so even though they’ve only won two games, there’s a good chance Jacksonville will earn at least one more victory before the end of the season.
The big one is in Week 16 against the Raiders. Both the Jaguars and Raiders currently have two wins, and unless that head-to-head matchup ends in a tie, it’s likely the Patriots would leapfrog the winner of that game in the draft order.
The best-case scenario for the Patriots would be the Jaguars winning two of their final five games. It’s certainly possible, especially with the Jaguars playing the 3-9 Titans twice.
Las Vegas Raiders
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Week 14: at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Week 15: vs. Atlanta Falcons
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Week 16: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
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Week 17: at New Orleans Saints
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Week 18: vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Raiders have the ninth-easiest remaining schedule. Just two of their final five games are against teams currently in a playoff spot, and one of them is the 6-6 Atlanta Falcons atop the NFC South. The other is the Chargers, who might not have much to play for in Week 18.
The Raiders nearly beat the Chiefs on Black Friday but lost 19-17 on the road. They still play hard, and rookie tight end Brock Bowers has been nearly unstoppable of late.
But this team has a bad roster and absolutely no incentive to win games. Las Vegas needs a franchise quarterback, and getting a high draft pick would help the most in that regard.
New York Giants
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Week 14: vs. New Orleans Saints
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Week 15: vs. Baltimore Ravens
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Week 16: at Atlanta Falcons
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Week 17: vs. Indianapolis Colts
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Week 18: at Philadelphia Eagles
The Giants are a mess, and their quarterback situation is abysmal. The best-case scenario for the Giants is landing one of the top QB prospects in the draft, whether it’s Shedeur Sanders, Cam Ward or someone else. The Giants have scored more than 20 points in only one of their last six games.
New York has a fairly tough remaining schedule. The Ravens, Falcons, Colts and Eagles are all in the playoff race. And even the Saints have been competitive in a lot of their games despite having a 4-8 record.
A strong case could be made for the Giants not winning another game, which wouldn’t be good for the Patriots.
Carolina Panthers
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Week 14: at Philadelphia Eagles
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Week 15: vs. Dallas Cowboys
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Week 16: vs. Arizona Cardinals
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Week 17: at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Week 18: at Atlanta Falcons
The Panthers don’t have an easy remaining schedule. Four of their last five opponents are still in the playoff race.
However, the Panthers have been playing much better of late. Carolina started out 1-7, then won two games in a row. The Panthers lost their last two games, but they easily could have won both. They lost 30-27 to the Chiefs in Week 12 and 26-23 in overtime to the Buccaneers this past weekend.
Panthers quarterback Bryce Young also has made huge strides in recent weeks and hasn’t thrown an interception in three consecutive games.
The chances of the Panthers winning again aren’t great, but divisional games are usually competitive, and they close the season with two of those matchups.
