Free agency is supposed to be cold. It’s supposed to be calculating. And in many ways, it’s gotten to the point where it’s more like that than it’s ever been.
Front offices, filled with incredibly smart people in possession of a mountain of data, assess what a player has been and what they think he’ll be going forward.
Often, front offices who are pursuing the same player extend offers that are strikingly similar. That’s not because anything nefarious is going on. Rather, it’s because their decision-makers relied on a similar process while determining what to offer that player in terms of years and dollars.
Sometimes, though, something more intangible gets in the way. Whether that’s for better or worse depends on the eventual outcome of the deal that results from it.
And in the case of Pete Alonso and the Mets, there’s more at work here than “how much should we offer a power-hitting first baseman entering his age-30 season?”
Alonso’s expected production at the plate matters the most. His ability to play a solid first base matters a lot. How the Mets and any other interested team thinks his body will hold up over the duration of his contract matters as well.
But what also matters is what Alonso means to the Mets and the city of New York, what he means to the fans, the possibility that he could be a career Met, and that he could potentially help them finish what they started in 2024, when they came within two wins of making it to the World Series.
Of course, those will be smaller factors. But they’re ones that president of baseball operations David Stearns is not oblivious to.
He understands the importance of letting analysis and long-term projections carry the day, but he also knows those can’t be the only considerations — especially when it comes to a career Met who has been embraced by the fans, and who is 27 home runs shy of breaking the club’s all-time record.
So, what should the Mets do now that Alonso is a free agent?
WHY IT COULD MAKE SENSE TO LET ALONSO GO
When examining what Alonso has been and what he might be in the future, one of the first things that jumps out is how his OPS has dipped over the last three seasons.
After posting an .869 OPS in 2022, Alonso had an .821 OPS in 2023, and a .788 OPS in 2024 — the lowest mark of his career.
Also worrying has been Alonso’s strikeout rate, which has skyrocketed the last two seasons (he struck out 172 times in 2024).
A look at Alonso’s advanced numbers via Baseball Savant shows a bit of a mixed bag, but there’s nothing truly alarming. For example, his xwOBA, xSLG, and hard hit percentage this season were well above average, and his bat speed and barrel percentage were elite.
Regarding Alonso’s defense at first base, it has regressed. He was worth -3 DRS in 2024. And if you want to use Baseball Savant’s OAA metric instead, he was worth -9 OAA this season after being worth -1 OAA in 2023.
One other concern is how Alonso fared in clutch situations during the regular season in 2024.
Alonso excelled in those moments for the first five seasons of his career, but struggled badly in that regard this year, slashing just .136/.190/.235 in late & close situations. On one hand, you can say that Alonso perhaps let the pressure of his contract year get to him during the regular season — meaning that might not bode well in tight spots going forward.
On the other hand, you can say Alonso rose up in big spots when it mattered most this year, as he erupted in the postseason. He had a .999 OPS in 58 plate appearances over 13 games, including his series-winning homer in Game 3 of the Wild Card Series against the Brewers, two home runs against the Phillies in the NLDS, and an enormous first-inning homer against the Dodgers as the Mets won Game 5 of the NLCS.
WHY IT COULD MAKE SENSE TO KEEP ALONSO
First, the on-field stuff.
Since entering the league in 2019, Alonso has been one of the best power hitters in baseball, as he’s smashed 226 home runs — including a remarkably steady homer output over the last four seasons as he’s clubbed 37, 40, 46, and 34.
As is noted above, Alonso’s OPS has dipped a bit. But if the Mets think he can again unlock what helped him have a .349 OBP between 2019 and 2022 — some of that can be achieved by simply chasing pitches out of the zone less frequently than he did in 2024 — it will make even more sense to retain him.
When Alonso is at his best, he’s not just a home run threat. He’s someone who will shorten up and spray singles the other way, and a player who will hit doubles in bunches. He also draws his fair share of walks, including 70 in 2024. So it’s unfair to simply label him as a masher.
Another huge thing Alonso has going for him is durability.
During his six-year career, he has played 846 of a possible 888 regular season games. Like Francisco Lindor, Alonso prides himself on being present for his team. That was never more evident than in 2024, when he played in all 162 regular season games and all 13 in the playoffs.
Now, the off-field stuff.
It’s rare for a player to spend his whole career with one team. Brandon Nimmo is trending in that direction, and if Alonso re-signs in Queens, the Mets will have another player on track to play his entire career in orange and blue. That means something.
If re-signed, Alonso — as is mentioned above — would likely break the Mets’ all-time home run record at some point during the 2025 season. And he’d continue adding to it in the years to come.
The bond fans develop with certain players should not be dismissed, and players who embrace the city and genuinely want to be a part of it are hard to find. The Mets already have one in Alonso.
VERDICT
Yes, there’s the emotional aspect to consider here. And it’s true that some other teams in recent situations with homegrown fan favorites have moved on. It’s kind of worked out for the Braves, who replaced Freddie Freeman with Matt Olson. It’s been a disaster for the Red Sox, who traded Mookie Betts and don’t have much to show for it.
In the case of the Mets and Alonso, while they could conceivably replace him by sliding Mark Vientos to first base, by signing someone in free agency, or by keeping first base warm until Ryan Clifford is hopefully ready in 2026, there’s really no good argument to do so unless Alonso’s market gets out of control.
That’s because Alonso is still a really good player with game-changing power, and has taken the field nearly every game.
It also needs to be pointed out that with the astronomical amount of money the Mets have coming off the books, they conceivably have the wherewithal to re-sign Alonso, sign Juan Soto, and do a whole lot else this offseason. This is not an either/or scenario.
What Alonso will get in terms of years and dollars remains to be seen, but it’s hard to see it being more (or argue for it being more) than the $27 million annually Freeman signed for with the Dodgers. Freeman signed that deal ahead of his age-32 season, and got six years. So it won’t be crazy if Scott Boras asks for similar length for Alonso.
But, with no offense intended to Alonso, he is not quite the well-rounded offensive player Freeman is. And he is not the fielder Freeman is. So perhaps a fair deal for Alonso would be something like $125 million for five years.
If the above kind of deal is what it will take for the Mets to bring Alonso back, they should not hesitate.
