Stock market today: Dow slips, Nasdaq pops as Tesla and bitcoin shine

Wall Street’s 2025 outlook reports are trickling in, and one keyword search I am doing of course is tariffs as anything imposed on China or Europe by Trump could impact the economy and the outlook for Fed policy.

Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius is out this morning downplaying the potential economic impact of tariffs. Hatzius reasons tariffs would be more of a one-time hit to growth and inflation, and won’t derail further rate cuts from the Fed in 2025.

Says Hatzius:

“The tariffs in our baseline would raise core personal consumption expenditure inflation by about 0.3-0.4 percentage points next year, leaving it at 2.4% in December 2025. Tariffs would have only a moderate and one-time effect that should not prevent inflation from continuing to fall, and their impact should be fairly easily identifiable in the component details, at least for tariffs on consumer goods. For all of these reasons, the impact on inflation need not be particularly significant for monetary policy, though this could change if the White House imposes a 10% universal tariff, which would push inflation just above 3%.”

To say expectations on Nvidia (NVDA) are sky high into its Wednesday earnings print is an understatement.

They are super, extra sky high!

Nvidia has outperformed the S&P 500 by 172% year to date and 5% in the last month, points out EvercoreISI analyst Mark Lipacis. The stock trades on a forward P/E multiple of 37 times, a 54% premium to the S&P 500.

The expectations have Wall Street hedging their bets a bit on Nvidia into the release.

“We see the near-term risks as largely balanced and we are buyers of Nvidia heading into its F3Q earnings report scheduled for Wednesday. Positive set-up indicators from accelerating bookings at cloud service providers, an upward bias on hyper-scale capital expenditures, as well as our view that near-term estimates will increase post the earnings call. Negative set-up indicators include decelerating revenue growth, our read of buy-side expecting a beat/raise print, and Nvidia outperforming the S&P 500 by 172% year to date and by 5% over the past month,” Lipacis said in a client note this morning.

I touched on Nvidia’s valuation in a recent chat on my Opening Bid podcast with Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya (video below). Arya makes some good points on how Nvidia’s stock tends to trade around certain valuation levels.