October inflation readings out this week have shown little progress toward the Fed’s 2% inflation target, putting into question how deeply the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in 2025.
On Wednesday, the “core” Consumer Price Index (CPI), which strips out the more volatile costs of food and gas, showed prices increased 3.3% for the third consecutive month during October. Then, on Thursday, the “core” Producer Price Index (PPI) revealed prices increased by 3.1% in October, up from 2.8% the month prior and above economist expectations for a 3% increase.
Taken together, the readings are adding to an overall picture of persistent, sticky inflation within the economy. Economists don’t see the data changing the Fed’s outlook come December. And markets agree with the CME FedWatch Tool currently placing a nearly 80% chance the Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting.
But the lack of recent progress on the inflation front could prompt the Fed to adjust its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which had forecast the central bank would cut interest rates four times, or by one percentage point in total, throughout 2025.
“PPI won’t decisively alter the Fed’s easing bias, but it makes charting the policy outlook murkier,” Nationwide financial market economist Oren Klachkin wrote in a note to clients today. “We anticipate 75 [basis points] of cumulative Fed easing in 2025, but risks seem to be tilting toward a more gradual pace of easing.”
