In a bizarre twist of fate, it is possible that the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) may be inadvertently coming to the aid of the West – and more importantly, Ukraine – by disrupting Putin’s southern flank.
Exactly eight years ago, in December 2016, Aleppo eventually fell to Assad and the Russians when the Syrian regime rained down chlorine barrel bombs for 17 days. This led to the surrender of 300,000 civilians, and the rebel fighters disappeared into Idlib province. Many of the civilians were later tortured and murdered by Assad’s brutal regime.
Since I last visited north-west Syria in 2020, things seem to have been relatively quiet there, and certainly since 2022 all eyes have been on Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine.
But it appears that the various rebel factions, especially the Free Syrian Army and HTS, have been regrouping, rearming and most importantly training. These rebels we see today in Aleppo are not the ragtag fighters that I saw in Idlib province between 2013 and 2020, but well-equipped outfits who seem to know what they are doing. There are rumours that Turkey is behind the resurgence of the Syrian opposition, but perhaps others have also helped.
The Russian “playbook” used in Ukraine was developed in Syria, and I saw at first-hand how Assad and Putin attacked hospitals, destroyed the power infrastructure and razed most of Idlib province to the ground. This scorched earth policy was intended to destroy the population’s will to resist – and it worked in Syria, but not yet, thank God, in Ukraine.
This was also the purpose of the chemical weapon attacks, which Putin is also using to great effect in Ukraine.
In my opinion Assad is still in power because he used chemical weapons, and this has not gone unnoticed by Putin.
Meanwhile, just as the Battle of Kursk was Hitler’s fatal over-extension in 1943, so Syria could be a dangerous case of overreach for Putin in 2024. The modern tyrant similarly wants to rule Europe and its environs. Syria is Putin’s southern flank and it has the strategically important port of Tartus, which he must fight to save.
But Iran is now a much-diminished ally following the defeat of Hezbollah. There are few other Iranian militias who can gallop to Assad’s aid, and no doubt Israel will also look for opportunities to further weaken the Damascus regime, which has been involved in many attacks on Israel.
On the face of it, this is potentially a difficult time for the West, as HTS is proscribed as a terrorist group by the UN and de facto by Washington and Westminster. But in the cloak-and-dagger world of strategic geopolitics, anything which hastens the end of hostilities in Ukraine is probably to be supported. HTS shunned Al Qaeda and Isis in 2016 and, unlike those jihadists, it appears to be only interested in ousting Assad from power. HTS does not seek to establish the caliphate which undid Isis, nor a Taliban-type government of the sort that is ruining Afghanistan.
According to my old contacts in Syria, there appear to be moderate groups alongside HTS, most especially the Free Syria Army, who are trying to create a new “Arab Spring” for the civilians in Syria who have suffered so much.
This is not a perfect world. But if the situation in Syria can hasten a ceasefire on Zelensky’s terms in Ukraine, and even perhaps lead to a fairer Syria, then I will whisper what I expect many Western governments are thinking: that this is probably a positive development.
