Tesla (TSLA) vehicle insurance registrations in China retreated sequentially last week, but the EV giant is still trending toward a strong quarterly performance in the key electric vehicle market. Meanwhile, Tesla stock is the midst of a nearly 40% rally this month after receiving another upgrade early Tuesday.
Tesla insurance registrations in China totaled 18,500 for the week of Dec. 9-Dec. 15, down more than 15% from 21,900 the previous week, according to data compiled by CnEVPost. With just two weeks left in the fourth quarter, Tesla registrations in China, a rough gauge for deliveries, are up 10% compared to last quarter and have increased 15.6% vs. a year ago.
Tesla’s year-to-date China registrations, which lagged earlier this year, turned positive in the third quarter and are now up about 8% compared to the same time frame in 2023.
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What’s The EV Forecast For 2025?
Meanwhile, Mizuho Securities analyst Vijay Rakesh upgraded Tesla to an outperform rating early Tuesday with a 515 price target. Rakesh cited a potential loosening of autonomous driving regulatory framework under President-elect Donald Trump.
Tesla shares advanced 3.6% to 479.86, hitting a record high of 483.99, during market action on Tuesday, adding to its more than 6% gain from Monday.
Tesla stock on Dec. 11 cleared the company’s longtime all-time high of 414.50, which it hit on Nov. 4, 2021. That day it closed at 409.97. Before last week, the stock last touched 400 in January 2022, according to MarketSurge charts.
Tesla Deliveries
The EV giant has said it expects “slight” vehicle deliveries growth this year. But with the end of the fourth quarter fast approaching, Tesla finds itself looking for answers with unit sales lagging in the U.S. and Europe.
The company saw vehicle deliveries rise 38% to 1.8 million in 2023 and while Tesla has said that sort of increase this year is out of reach, it is predicting growth in its automobile segment.
“Despite ongoing macroeconomic conditions, we expect to achieve slight growth in vehicle deliveries in 2024,” Tesla said in its third-quarter earnings release.
Looking further out, Chief Executive Elon Musk proclaimed on the Q3 earnings call that vehicle sales could grow “20% to 30%” in 2025.
Rumors are also circulating that Tesla plans to release a “Model Q” hatchback next year with a price tag around $30,000. It’s unclear if that rumor was true, though Musk said on the Q3 earnings call an upcoming “affordable” vehicle will cost under $30,000 after tax incentives.
With Tesla predicting slight vehicle delivery growth in 2024 vs. 2023’s 1.81 million, the EV giant needs 515,000 deliveries or more in Q4, far more than the Q4 2023 record of 484,507. Analyst consensus currently forecasts 497,000 vehicle deliveries in Q4 and 1.79 million for 2024, according to FactSet.
Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney recently wrote that data out of the U.S., Europe, and China show mixed demand trends for Tesla.
Hawkish Fed Rate Cut Due As Market Slides
Tesla Stock Performance
TSLA jumped 12% last week, continuing its advance after hitting 404.80 intraday on Dec. 9, touching 400 for the first time since January 2022, according to MarketSurge charts.
Tesla stock has surged in recent weeks in part on hopes that self-driving is finally on the way. Tesla topped the $1 trillion mark on Nov. 8 for the first time in two years. On Nov. 6, Tesla stock gapped up above an alternate handle buy point of 273.54 but was quickly extended.
Tesla stock popped 3.2% to 369.49 on Dec. 5, clearing a recent range, which could have offered an add-on entry for existing TSLA holders. However, the stock is more than 70% above its 200-day moving average, a red flag of a stock becoming overextended.
On Sunday, Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives, a longtime Tesla bull, raised his Tesla stock price target to 515, up from 400. That represents another 18% upside from current TSLA trading levels.
“We believe the Trump White House the next 4 years will be a ‘total game changer’ for the autonomous and AI story for Tesla and Musk over the coming years. Our bull case is $650 for 2025,” Ives wrote.
The analyst also wrote Sunday that Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap by the end of 2025 as the company’s “autonomous vision starts to take shape along with very solid Tesla delivery demand we expect from the core China market.”
Tesla stock ranks first in the 35-member IBD Auto Manufacturers industry group. The stock has a 94 Composite Rating out of a best-possible 99. Shares also have a 98 Relative Strength Rating and a 78 EPS Rating.
Please follow Kit Norton on X @KitNorton for more coverage.
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