A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy football categories doesn’t always tell the whole story of how a player is performing. Dalton Del Don attempts to identify misleading numbers that are worth a closer look.
Yes … The Numbers Do Lie.
Diontae Johnson’s 13 catches are a lie
Johnson led all wide receivers in expected fantasy points during his first start with Andy Dalton. He saw a whopping 37.8% target share after seeing 21.8% with Bryce Young, who was clearly holding this Dave Canales offense back. Johnson also saw a 44.8% first-read target rate and a 10.2 aDOT while finishing with a career-high 122 receiving yards — his first 100-yard game since Week 13, 2021. He nearly had two more touchdowns Sunday and is tied for the league lead in end-zone targets.
Dalton provided 29 catchable targets in Week 3 after Young totaled 38 over the first two games of the season. Johnson is an elite separator and will see even more targets with Adam Thielen on IR. Throw away Johnson’s stats with Young (and with Kenny Pickett for that matter), as his fantasy value dramatically improved with Carolina’s quarterback switch.
Johnson has historically seen a big increase in production when his QB isn’t pressured, so the Bengals look like a good matchup this week.
Rome Odunze’s 8.8 fantasy points per game are a lie
Volume helped Odunze’s breakout game last week, and Keenan Allen is expected to return in Week 4. Still, Odunze clearly has potential to continue to put up bigger fantasy production. He looked like Chicago’s No. 1 WR last week, when he ran 98% of the routes and saw 49% of the air yards. He led the league in air yards and could’ve had an even bigger game had Caleb Williams not missed him multiple times open downfield.
Williams otherwise showed real improvement last week, and the Bears are getting just 3.0 YPC on the season despite facing the Colts last week. Chicago may be forced to throw more than they planned to with their rookie QB. Odunze’s slow start came while he was returning from a sprained MCL, but he jumped off the screen last week.
Odunze will have to overcome shaky coaching, a rookie QB and Allen’s return, but he’s a legit prospect who might be Williams’ favorite target already. Odunze has the sixth-most air yards (fifth-most unrealized) this year, and he gets a highly favorable matchup this week. The Rams have allowed the second most fantasy points to wide receivers this season and the most separation.
Odunze hasn’t been a top-40 fantasy WR to open the year, but that hides a wideout with a bunch of upside moving forward.
Josh Jacobs’ zero rushing touchdowns are a lie
Jacobs has yet to reach the end zone this season despite having the sixth-most red-zone rushes and the third-most carries inside the five on the seventh-highest-scoring offense in the league. He lost a fumble just before hitting pay dirt during a big Week 2 performance. Jacobs has bounced back this season and ranks top 15 in rush yards over expectation, so red-zone regression is coming.
Emanuel Wilson is a good player who will continue to get touches, but last week’s near-even split was misleading. Jacobs was limited in all practices with a back injury leading up to Sunday, and he had a 12-to-5 carry advantage deep into the third quarter before ceding work in a lopsided game.
Jacobs returned to a full practice this week, and he remains Green Bay’s RB1. He’s had plenty of success at the goal line before while averaging 11 rushing TDs over 2020-2022. Matt LaFleur is the early favorite for Coach of the Year with the Packers somehow getting the second most yards per play (6.4) with Malik Willis starting twice. Jordan Love’s eventual return will make Green Bay even better, and Jacobs could be featured while the QB plays through a knee injury.
Jacobs has a tough matchup against the Vikings this week, but touchdowns are coming.
Courtland Sutton’s zero TD catches are a lie
Sutton is tied for the league lead in red-zone targets (six) and end-zone targets (five). He’s the WR59 in fantasy scoring, but he’s the WR11 in expected fantasy points. Sutton’s TD rate was expected to regress in 2024 after he pulled down 10 scores on just 59 catches last season, but he’s swung the other way this season and deserves better.
Quarterback has been the main problem, as Sutton ranks eighth in targets (27) but 32nd in catchable targets (12). Bo Nix will continue to hold Sutton back, but the rookie looked much better last week. He showed more willingness to throw downfield and nearly connected with Sutton for a score. Denver lacks secondary weapons, so the targets should continue to be there in a Sean Payton offense with the fifth-highest pass rate over expectation. Sutton just needs continued improvement from Nix.
Sutton gets an extremely tough matchup this week against a Jets secondary allowing the fewest fantasy points to perimeter receivers, but he’s due to start scoring touchdowns soon.
