In our everlasting mission to predict the future, a top-down look at how an offense might attack their opponent’s defense is, in my humble estimation, a good place to start.
We find defenses every season that profile as a so-called run funnel, meaning opponents lean unusually hard on the rushing attack in neutral and positive game scripts. The same goes for pass funnels: Defenses that are regularly attacked through the air in neutral situations (generally meaning when the game is within seven points either way).
Identifying those matchups is the point of this column. We’ll get better, more reliable data on how teams are attacking defenses as the season rolls on. For now, we have 2023 numbers and some educated guesses about how teams might operate according to their offseason moves.
This funnel defense analysis should not be the end-all-be-all for how you determine your weekly fantasy plays. It is but another data point in your brain-rattling decision making on who to play and who to bench.
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Run Funnel Defenses
Bears vs. Colts
As the compiler of the Funnel Defense Report, I am legally obliged in 47 states to tout whoever is playing the Colts.
So I will do just that, but take no pleasure in it. The Colts are by far the most extreme run funnel defense, and were bludgeoned by the Malik Willis-led Packers just a week ago. Green Bay posted a 9 percent neutral pass script, something we haven’t seen since NFL players smoked cigarettes on the sidelines as part of their lung health regimen. Indianapolis’ defense has allowed the NFL’s third highest rush yards before contact per attempt — a key stat in identifying soft run defenses.
Anyway, the unspeakably bad Bears offense takes on this extraordinary run funnel in Week 3. Though D’Andre Swift stinks (48 yards on 24 rushes), he is clearly the lead back here. He’s still a shaky play in a fantastic on-paper matchup. The Bears, for their part, have leaned hard on the pass (61 percent) in neutral situations.
Related: Jonathan Taylor has a sneaky good matchup against a Chicago defense allowing the eighth highest yards before contact per rush. This shapes up as a run-heavy, quick game without much fantasy upside.
Jaguars vs. Bills
There’s two two ways about it: Jacksonville’s offense stinks. The reliance on deep shots and hugely run-heavy game plans is as old school as it gets, and can’t work in the modern NFL landscape. It doesn’t help that Trevor Lawrence remains shockingly mid.
The Jags offense has been supremely run first through two weeks, and that might pay dividends against the Bills in Week 3. Buffalo is now the NFL’s third most extreme run funnel defense. The Jaguars are 19th in pass rate over expected, having run the ball at a 44 percent rate in neutral game script. They are 4 percent below their expected pass rate through Week 2.
If Jacksonville can hang tough with the superior Bills — a big if — Travis Etienne should be in for a heavy lift unless Tank Bigsby (shoulder) is back to full health. Only four defenses have seen a lower neutral pass rate against them than the Bills.
Commanders vs. Bengals
Football analytics nerds will one day tell their grandchildren about it: The Chiefs on Sunday were 8 percent below their expected drop back rate against the Bengals. KC’s 47 percent neutral pass rate was among the bottom-five pass rates of Week 2. Gather around the fire, children. I have a story to tell.
This story is about a Cincinnati defense that saw the Patriots go 12 percent below their expected drop back rate in Week 1 and the Chiefs turn to the ground game in Week 2. It might make sense when one considers the Bengals are giving up 2.64 yards after contact per rush, the NFL’s sixth highest rate. They are among the worst tackling teams in the league. Only the Giants and Falcons have been worse.
Washington’s offense, which was 7 percent below its expected drop back rate in Week 1 and -5 percent in Week 2, will do whatever it takes to establish it against the Bengals and shorten the game against a vastly superior opponent. The Commanders have been relatively run heavy even when trailing through two games, passing the ball at a 53 percent rate while chasing points. That should mean Brian Robinson — who has 29 rushes to just ten attempts for Austin Ekeler — should have every chance to see a solid workload. With a 40 percent rush share this season, Jayden Daniels profiles as the real winner against a poor Cincinnati defense.
Pass Funnel Defenses
Falcons vs. Chiefs
I talked ad nauseam on Tuesday’s Rotoworld Football Show about how run heavy the Falcons offense has been through two games. Zac Robinson’s offense is 6 percent under its expected drop back rate and a shocking 10 percent under their expected first down pass rate. Suffice it to say: The run has been established.
I don’t know if that will hold up in Week 3 against Kansas City. Chiefs opponents have passed at a 64 percent rate in neutral game script (when the game is within one score either way). Only the Patriots profile as a more extreme pass funnel defense in the season’s early going.
Bijan Robinson will still be the centerpiece of Atlanta’s offense, but the Falcons being forced into a more pass-heavy approach in Week 3 should open up routes and targets for every pass catcher. We saw a major shift in Atlanta’s offense last week against the Eagles: They used three-receiver sets on 97 percent of their plays after using three wideouts 48 percent of the time in Week 1. Facing the pass-funnel Chiefs could put Darnell Mooney and Ray-Ray McCloud very much in play. McCloud, Mooney, and Drake London ran a route on nearly every Kirk Cousins drop back last Monday night. Kyle Pitts, meanwhile, posted a less-than-inspiring 72 percent route rate.
Atlanta’s passing attack could feature a nonstop drip of check downs in Week 3. The Chiefs defense plays two high safeties at the league’s second highest rate through Week 2. Joe Burrow averaged just 6.7 air yards per throw against these Chiefs last Sunday.
Cowboys vs. Ravens
The Ravens, as per usual, are shaping up as a pass funnel defense. Baltimore opponents — the Chiefs and Raiders — have passed at a 65 percent neutral rate this season, the fourth highest in the NFL. Only the Patriots and Chiefs have a higher pass rate over expected against them than the Ravens. John Harbaugh’s defense has struggled against the pass; the Commanders and Cardinals are the only teams giving up a higher drop back success rate (54 percent).
It should mean plenty of drop backs for Dak Prescott in Week 3. This is nothing new for Dallas, an offense without a viable running back that has been 15 percent over its expected drop back rate this season. It’s not much of a sample size — just 46 snaps — but in neutral situations this season, the Cowboys have passed at a 60 percent clip.
Obviously this is good for CeeDee Lamb’s target volume. It should also work out quite well for Brandin Cooks — who has 13 percent of the team’s targets and 22 percent of the air yards — and perhaps Jalen Tolbert, who’s seen 14 percent of the Cowboys’ targets. Jake Ferguson could also be a beneficiary of a pass-first-pass-only approach against Baltimore, though it’s unlikely Ferguson (MCL) will get a full share of pass routes if he returns to the lineup.
I’ll mention that the Cowboys also look like a pass funnel defense. This matchup could feature lots of passing and tantalizing play volume.
Giants vs. Browns
Malik Nabers, per the spreadsheets, isn’t likely to enjoy a 67 percent target share every week. Even so, a target share well north of 30 percent is definitely in play for the dominant rookie.
Nabers and the Giants take on the pass-funnel Browns in Week 3. Cleveland opponents have dropped back on 66 percent of their plays in neutral game script in the season’s first couple games; that’s the third highest rate in the NFL. Look no further than Week 2 — when the Jaguars, after being massively run heavy in Week 1 — were a mere 1 percent below their expected pass rate against the Browns. Jacksonville posted a 66 percent pass rate while trailing against Cleveland.
Dallas was 2 percent over that rate against the Browns on opening day.
The Giants, who enter Week 3 exactly 1 percent above their expected drop back rate, should be forced into a pass-heavy script as six-point dogs to the Browns. It should mean another monster target total for Nabers, and maybe a contribution from Darius Slayton or WanDale Robinson.
