Fantasy basketball rankings can vary significantly by league type. Players who are great in points leagues may not be so great in category leagues. In head-to-head categories, you also have punting to consider. There are general guidelines that are helpful to follow — knowing your league format, keeping up with the news and not reaching too far beyond ADP being some of the biggest among them.
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But how about strategy? Is there an overarching strategy we can utilize regardless of league type to improve our chances of winning our fantasy leagues? A broad place to start, and something I can endorse as my favorite draft strategy, is to find high-floor players early and focus on upside late. Focus on not losing your draft at the start, and try to win it later.
Ideal draft strategy: High-floor early, high-upside late
Avoiding age/injury
Most important for Picks 1-45
The primary drivers of risk/reward in fantasy basketball are age, injury history and role. Team success can play a factor too — is this player at risk of being shut down during tanking season? — but it should be considered more of a tiebreaker rather than a major factor.
Age and injury history are often related. Someone who is older has a higher risk of injury (and general performance decline). Someone who has been injured a lot is less likely to play well when they’re older. When the two factors collide, issues arise. Joel Embiid, Anthony Davis, Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant have all proven to be first-round talents, and they’re generally being selected in the first round this season. However, if your best player is as likely to play 55 games as 75 games, that’s a tough hole to dig yourself out of. Plenty of players like this litter the second and third rounds as well, like LeBron James, Paul George and Kyrie Irving. There is only so much the remainder of your roster can do to make up for the potentially lost games or decline in production.
At the same time, we have to be reasonable when it comes to how far we let these players slip. If you’re picking at the turn and Joel Embiid is there for you, passing that up could be a mistake. If you’re picking at 38 and Paul George is there, you can take the risk. However, the beginning of the draft is when it’s the most crucial to ask, “Is there a safer option who can approximate the production?”
Focusing on role
Most important for Picks 45-70
This is where we start to mix finding high-floor players with upside plays. Can we say definitively that Player X is one of their team’s top three offensive options? In the very early rounds of drafts, this is essentially a guarantee for every player. By ADP, I think the first player who is not a clear top-three option in their offense is Rudy Gobert. He has an ADP of 47.1.
Specialists like Gobert can be useful in fantasy, especially in category formats. If you’re making a big-man-focused team in nine-category H2H, you may need Gobert over someone like DeMar DeRozan. But broadly speaking, top-three options have a higher floor because they’re trusted by the coaching staff to make plays. Players in that top-three hierarchy are also most likely to see increased usage if another one of the top-three options suffers an injury, giving them a higher ceiling than most specialists.
This is a major reason why fantasy managers should consider targeting playmaking big men. Only a select few centers will really be given the opportunity to step into more touches when a key player is unavailable — think Domantas Sabonis, Alperen Şengün, Bam Adebayo and Karl-Anthony Towns. You aren’t getting that specific upside when you draft Mark Williams or Clint Capela.
When and how to chase upside
Picks 70+
Around pick 70, you have an amalgamation of steady low-ceiling players and potential breakouts. This is where you should start easing off concerns about age and injury history. Role is still a crucial aspect of chasing upside, but it becomes a bit more flexible.
The question can shift from, “Is this player a top-three option?” to “Is this player one injury to a teammate away from a huge role?” Players like Malik Monk, Naz Reid, Trey Murphy and Onyeka Okongwu fit this mold. These players see sixth-man minutes — enough to give them fantasy relevance on its own — but could see a consistent starting role if one injury occurs to someone ahead of them in the rotation. There are plenty of these cases outside of the top 100.
There are also players available in this range who are primary options for their team. Cam Thomas can be drafted at pick 75, and he’s Brooklyn’s clear No. 1 option. The same goes for Anfernee Simons, who has an ADP of 89.
After pick 100, I’m fine with almost throwing injury concern completely out the window. Give me Khris Middleton at an ADP of 101; give me Malcolm Brogdon at an ADP of 130. Maybe those players can’t reach their previous heights, but they are still capable of putting together stretches of top-50 value. The downside risk is practically gone when some of your other options in this range are Klay Thompson and Luguentz Dort.
