One of the best parts of the 12-team College Football Playoff era is its forgiveness. A team — say, Notre Dame — can lose early in the season and still remain in the mix for an at-large bid. There are some two-loss teams very much still in the Playoff picture in the Southeastern Conference, too.
But even with newfound wiggle room, a team will eventually hit point where its back is against the wall. It must win its game to say in the mix for the CFP. And that is where the Fighting Irish find themselves as they take on unbeaten Navy this weekend at MetLife Stadium.
Notre Dame is favored by nearly two touchdowns, so Vegas clearly believes that the Irish will ace this test. But it is a test nonetheless, against a service academy team that can do more than just run the triple-option this season. Navy can throw the ball! Navy can run more of a traditional spread offense system. Navy will also change formations and move around before the snap to confuse defenses. And it’s working, as the Midshipmen are 6-0 here in late October. It’s going to be a tall task for a Notre Dame team that will also have to face unbeaten Army (!) later this season as it tries to win out and secure a CFP berth.
Back when the Irish lost to Northern Illinois, I said they’d make the Playoff if they won out — even though they weren’t playing well and were particularly out of sync in the pass game. But it was and remains true, regardless of the opponents on the schedule the rest of the way. Florida State is dreadful. USC is struggling. Those opponents look a whole lot more manageable than they did back in September. But who knew that the two service academies would be unbeaten into late October? It’s a fun wrinkle for an already wild and wacky season. And I can’t wait to see the Irish backed against their wall this weekend, up against one of the best teams remaining on their schedule and one of the best stories in all of college football.
Here’s what else I’m watching for in Week 9 of the college football season:
Who is the third-best team in the SEC?
Joshua Perry and I debated this on the latest episode of Rushing The Field. These are the last two teams unbeaten in SEC play, which is kind of astonishing but also gives credence to the idea that teams can and do get better over the course of the season. Joshua would give the edge to Texas A&M heading into the Aggies’ matchup against LSU, while I lean Tigers. I’m a big fan of Garrett Nussmeier and the LSU passing attack, which will go head-to-head with a Texas A&M team that prefers to run the ball. Which Connor Weigman shows up? We’ve seen the type of quarterback who can go out there and win the Aggies a game. We’ve seen a bad quarterback who can cost ’em a game. And we’ve seen something in the middle. But in a game between too good-but-flawed SEC teams, it really could come down to Weigman’s play.
How much better is Wisconsin, actually?
The Badgers are on a three-game winning streak, and while they haven’t beat teams on the top end of the Big Ten, they seemingly have figured things out offensively. They can run the ball and throw it a bit, and they’re maybe finally giving us an answer to what kind of offensive identity Wisconsin wants to have under Luke Fickell. That, coupled with the fact that Camp Randall is one of the toughest places to play in college football, leads me to believe that the Badgers can hang with No. 3 Penn State. The Nittany Lions showed a lot of grit in their comeback win on the road at USC, but I’m still not entirely sure what their ceiling is (especially when they are so reliant on Tyler Warren offensively) and this should be a good barometer for them ahead of their matchup against Ohio State. Of course, that also means they could be looking ahead to the Buckeyes just a bit … which is another storyline to track.
Who is best-positioned for the Group of 5 Playoff spot after this weekend?
Late Friday night, Boise State will take on UNLV in the Game of the Year in the Group of 5 leagues. Seriously, it’s massive. Both teams have had impressive nonconference performances, with the Rebels racking up wins over Houston and Kansas, and the Broncos beating Washington State and going toe-to-toe with Oregon, the nation’s No. 1 team, all while building a compelling Heisman Trophy case for running back Ashton Jeanty. It’s clear by now that the winner of the Mountain West will be well-positioned to secure the CFP spot that goes to the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion. So, it’s worth pouring that extra cup of coffee to stay up for a 10:30pm ET kickoff. I promise.
