2024 season: Eliminated on Sept. 20, last in AL East
Let’s take a look at the season that was for the 2024 Toronto Blue Jays, the questions the team must address this winter and the early outlook for 2025.
Read more: 2024 MLB offseason previews: What’s next for the White Sox, A’s, Nats and more?
Things that went right
With everything crumbling around him, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. put together his best season since he finished second in AL MVP voting in 2021. Vladdy didn’t dominate all season, as he owned a .679 OPS at the end of April. But from May on, the 25-year-old was one of baseball’s best hitters.
Guerrero is one year away from free agency, and now he and management can go into the offseason with the knowledge that he can play at a level that warrants a significant, long-term commitment.
Things that went wrong
In short, everything other than Guerrero. After three postseason appearances and four winning records in the previous four seasons, the Blue Jays fell below .500 on April 30 and never returned to that mark.
Scoring runs was a huge problem all season. Toronto ranked 24th in runs scored at the All-Star break, and at that moment, George Springer, Bo Bichette, Justin Turner, Daulton Varsho, Kevin Kiermaier and Alejandro Kirk all had a sub-.700 OPS. Bichette and Springer were by far the biggest disappointments, as they were expected to be outstanding offensive players but instead dragged down the top of the lineup until the team fell out of the playoff race.
Things weren’t any better on the pitching side, as Toronto went from finishing fourth in ERA last season to having one of the worst marks in baseball this year. The bullpen was a complete disaster, as Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson went from being the team’s anchors in 2023 to dealing with injuries and ineffectiveness this time around. Veterans in the Jays’ rotation deserve credit for continuing to take the ball every fifth day, but Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt were notably less effective, as was Yusei Kikuchi before he was traded to Houston at the deadline.
Offseason plans
The Blue Jays are entering a pivotal offseason that will likely involve significant roster change. Signing Guerrero to a long-term contract will need to be a priority this winter, as losing him a year from now would kickstart a significant rebuild that would not be well received by the fan base. Guerrero should be the team’s first baseman, though he has dabbled at the hot corner.
The rest of the infield is unsettled, starting with the status of Bichette. Like Guerrero, Bichette is one year away from free agency. But on the heels of such a disappointing season, Bichette and the organization will have trouble determining his long-term value. It wouldn’t be shocking to see him get a fresh start elsewhere, but cooler heads might prevail once 2024 fades into the background. Spencer Horwitz and Will Wagner, who arrived in the Kikuchi trade, could handle second base, with Horwitz likely entering the competition with a leg up. Ernie Clement and Addison Barger can compete for opportunities at the hot corner, but Clement profiles more as a utilityman, and Barger might not be ready for full-time duty.
Two-thirds of the outfield is set. Varsho regularly wowed fans with his highlight-reel catches and will play center field despite being a mediocre offensive player. Springer will remain in right field, and management will cross its fingers that he can enjoy a bounce-back year in his age-35 season. Left field is wide open, with Joey Loperfido and Davis Schneider as candidates. Loperfido arrived at the trade deadline and struck out too often to make an impact. Schneider fizzled after creating a buzz late last season and at the outset of 2024.
The Jays have more answers in the rotation than in the batting lineup, albeit with the underlying assumption that Gausman and Bassitt can rebound in their mid-30s. Those two men, along with José Berrios, Bowden Francis and Yariel Rodríguez, will likely form the Opening Day rotation. Berrios was the team’s most consistent starter in 2024, and Francis enjoyed a memorable stretch in August. Rodríguez was inconsistent but showed potential in his rookie year.
The Blue Jays will need to add depth to their bullpen, as Romano and Swanson will enter 2025 as wild cards. This season, Chad Green reestablished himself as a late-inning reliever, and he’ll have a pivotal role going forward. The rest of the group is largely composed of fringe major leaguers.
Money will be a hot topic this winter. Toronto ranked ninth in 2024 payroll, and its best player needs a raise. The organization doesn’t have an exciting group of prospects with which to make trades, but signing multiple veterans to large free-agent contracts might not be an option. General manager Ross Atkins will need to get creative, which has not been his strength in the past.
MLB playoffs 2024 tracker: Follow along as the postseason picture comes into focus
Prospects on the horizon
The Blue Jays’ farm system was a roller-coaster ride this year. An 80-game PED suspension for Orelvis Martinez and Tommy John surgery for Ricky Tiedemann robbed the organization of its best prospects. But a flurry of trade-deadline deals and the drafting of Trey Yesavage salvaged some respectability for this group. Still, there aren’t many exciting prospects who are nearing MLB debuts.
Martinez appeared in one game for Toronto prior to being suspended and will join the crowded infield competition during spring training. He has undeniable power, and his ability to reach base regularly will determine his readiness for the majors.
Jake Bloss made three starts with Houston before arriving in the Kikuchi trade and will be valuable for Toronto next year. If all goes well, Toronto’s five current starters will grab the Opening Day rotation spots, with Bloss waiting in Triple-A until an injury necessitates his arrival. The organization otherwise lacks rotation options in the minors.
Jonatan Clase could join the team at some point in 2025. He struggled in 41 at-bats with Seattle before arriving in the Yimi García trade, and the jury is out regarding his ability to collect base knocks in the majors. But there are some skills that Clase has in spades — namely exceptional speed that serves him well on the base paths and in the outfield.
Goals for 2025
Toronto could squeeze into the postseason or finish last in the division next year, depending on the moves the front office makes in the offseason. As is the case most years, the AL East will be a juggernaut. The Yankees and Orioles are among the best teams in baseball, the Red Sox have turned a corner in their rebuild, and the Rays are always dangerous.
Overall, this is a pivotal moment for the organization. Team president and CEO Mark Shapiro and Atkins have led the Blue Jays since the end of the 2015 season, and they have yet to win a postseason series. Entering another full rebuild would be tough to sell to fans, but it might be necessary if key veterans such as Springer, Gausman and Bassitt continue to decline.
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Fantasy focus
Guerrero will be a first-round pick in 2025 head-to-head leagues and a second-round selection in roto formats. Aside from a lack of steals, he offers everything a fantasy manager is looking for in an early-round slugger. Bichette will take a significant tumble in fantasy drafts, but he should still factor into the initial 100 picks on the basis of his pre-2024 performance. Springer will be less coveted and will fall to the second half of drafts.
Among the Blue Jays’ pitchers, Gausman and Berrios will be valued as No. 3 starters in mixed leagues, with Francis being an exciting late-round option. Romano’s value will fluctuate wildly, depending on how he looks in spring training.
