It’s the first north London derby of the season on Sunday when Arsenal travel to Tottenham looking to bounce back after dropping two points against Brighton last time out (2pm, Sky Sports Main Event).
Mikel Arteta’s side went into the international break already two points behind Manchester City and Liverpool after the 1-1 draw at home to the Seagulls, which saw them play most of the second half with 10 men following Declan Rice’s red card.
He will be missing on Sunday and is set to be joined on the sidelines by Riccardo Calafiori and Martin Odegaard, who both picked up injuries on international duty for Italy and Norway respectively. Mikel Merino and Takehiro Tomiyasu will also be missing for the visitors.
The news is better for Spurs though who will welcome back striker Dominic Solanke, who has missed the last two games through injury. Solanke could lead the line for a Spurs team aiming to get one over their local rivals for the first time since May 2022.
On that occasion, two goals from Harry Kane and a third from Son Heung-Min earned them a 3-0 win against the 10 men of Arsenal, who had Rob Holding sent off after just 33 minutes.
That is Tottenham’s only win in seven derby games and the betting sites make them outsiders to improve that record. Despite their list of absentees, Arsenal are the favourites and could be ready to deliver an early season statement.
Tottenham vs Arsenal preview: Gunners to nick it
We always expect goals in this fixture, and it rarely disappoints. In fact, there have been 30 goals in the nine games played since 2020!
We also expect both teams to score. Arsenal might only have conceded once so far this season, but Spurs have scored six (one more than their opponents) and managed 20 shots on target, in just three games, so it’s likely to be a busy afternoon for both defences.
This fixture has also historically seen both teams score more often than any other in Premier League history, happening 43 times so it seems an obvious area to consider when studying the markets on football betting sites.
A 1-1 draw has been a popular pick among the ex-pros, especially with the injury to skipper Odegaard, but draws are rare at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. There has been just one stalemate in the last 49 games – a 2-2 draw with Manchester United in April 2023.
Of all the grounds in the Premier League, it has seen the lowest percentage of draws, just 9 per cent of the 101 games played and there has never been a goalless draw – in case you’re wondering you can get 14/1 on 0-0 with Betfred.
So, the stats suggest we’ll get a winner, one way or another, and Arsenal look the more likely. They were cruising to a comfortable win in this fixture last season before letting Tottenham back in.
In Spurs’ last game, Newcastle exposed the soft centre of Ange Postecoglou’s men, who remain defensively frail, unlike their local rivals, who look the better option to claim the derby day spoils.
Tottenham vs Arsenal prediction 1: Arsenal to win and both teams to score – 13/5 Betfred
Tottenham vs Arsenal tips: Solanke back with a bang
Solanke is expected to return to action for Tottenham on Sunday after what has been a frustrating start to life at his new club.
The striker, who moved from Bournemouth for £65m in the summer, twisted his ankle on his debut against Leicester and missed the games against Everton and Newcastle.
He’d looked lively on debut, firing in three shots on targets, and should be confident of opening his account for Spurs this weekend.
The 26-year-old averaged a goal every two games last season, netting 21 from 42 games, so the fact he’s not scored in his last two may mean he’s due.
It also seem’s like he’s due a first goal against Arsenal after drawing a blank in his five previous appearances for Bournemouth.
Solanke is the same price as Son Heung-min to score anytime on most betting apps, but we’re leaning towards the new boy endearing himself to the Spurs faithful with a derby goal.
Tottenham v Arsenal prediction 2: Dominic Solanke to score at any time – 21/10 Bet365
Tottenham vs Arsenal betting: Arsenal to strike first
The Gunners are currently on a nine-game unbeaten run and have scored first in all but one of those matches, Everton having beaten them to the punch on the final day of last season but ultimately losing 2-1.
Arsenal have also won the first half in seven of those nine games, and we like their price to be ahead in this game at the interval.
The Gunners have also taken the lead in the last four meetings between the two sides and three of them came in the form of own goals!
You will get 5/1 with William Hill on there being an own goal – surely lightning can’t strike four times, can it?
They are also offering 7/4 on a penalty being given which is worth a look because this fixture has seen the most penalties given and scored in Premier League history – 26 have been awarded and 24 converted.
Tottenham v Arsenal prediction 3: Arsenal to lead at half-time – 18/5 Bet365
Responsible gambling
If you are planning to have a bet on the north London derby, or any other sporting event this weekend, remember to gamble responsibly.
Betting is never a surefire way to make money, no matter how much you think you know about sport, and should only ever be treated as an entertainment tool.
Never bet more than you can afford to lose and if you are having issues staying in control, make sure you seek help and advice from one of the UK’s gambling addiction organisations.
