The two teams stared at each other from across the East Room of the White House, each waiting for its photo op, each convinced it belonged there more than the other. But both USC and Louisiana State technically had been named college football’s national champions after the 2003 season — LSU by the Bowl Championship Series computers and USC by the Associated Press voters — so both had been invited to meet with President George W. Bush at the White House in March 2004.
Later, as he congratulated both teams, President Bush joked the two should decide a champion right then and there.
“The South Lawn is pretty good sized,” Bush quipped.
No football was played that afternoon on the White House lawn. Nor would the two college football powers play at any point in the ensuing 20 years.
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But two decades after their shared title, that finally changes Sunday, as USC will face LSU in Las Vegas in one of the marquee matchups of college football’s opening weekend and one of the biggest games on the Trojans’ schedule. Their meeting may not decide the true champion of 2003 — many of the players in this year’s matchup weren’t even born yet — but the stakes still are high for USC and LSU, given the gauntlet awaiting them in the coming weeks.
Both teams enter the opener under strikingly similar circumstances, basically the football version of the Spider-Man pointing meme. Their coaches, USC’s Lincoln Riley and LSU’s Brian Kelly, both are starting a critical Year 3 at their schools, with sky-high expectations and mounting pressure to deliver on them. Both are replacing Heisman winners at quarterback with longtime backups who waited their turn. And both hired new coordinators, with new schemes, to fix two of the worst defenses in college football.
For two teams with far more questions than answers on both sides of the ball, Sunday’s matchup should say a lot about where they stand. Which is precisely why they probably would prefer not to play each other in Week 1.
With their schedules packed with new power conference teams, both coaches wondered aloud recently if it’s worth scheduling marquee nonconference matchups in the future. This game even might have been canceled, Kelly said recently, had the schools not been so far into planning it.
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“Our schedules are already going to be so good, at some point you’re like, all right, is the juice worth the squeeze in terms of playing these games?” Riley said at Big Ten media day.
Considering how much is new and uncertain for USC and LSU, it remains to be seen. But looking at the matchup, it’s startling just how similarly the schools stack up on paper.
New quarterbacks
It’s as if their stories were lifted from the same cliche sports movie, onetime top quarterback recruits who both waited their turn behind Heisman winners, two exemplary cases of patience in the transfer portal era finally getting their long-awaited shot.
Neither Miller Moss nor Garrett Nussmeier should be expected to fill the shoes of the dynamic passers they’re replacing. The sports movie plot only goes so far in the real world, right? But they should be capable caretakers, at the very least. Both were top-20 quarterbacks in the class of 2021, according to 247Sports.com, and both have three years of seasoning at their schools. Even their measurables are similar — both are 6 feet 2 and weigh between 201 and 205.
What they don’t have is much tape for opposing defenses to study. How much can either team learn from the opposing quarterback’s single start in a meaningless bowl game?
“You’re taking a lot of what they did in the bowl game because they had some time to really settle in on what they felt his comfort level was,” Kelly said of Moss last week. “He’s grown since then, so there will be more to the offense, but you’re going to take what Coach Riley has been successful with and you’re going to look at their offensive structure and begin to build your defensive plan accordingly.”
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Watching what he can of Nussmeier, USC defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn said the 22-year-old doesn’t play like he’s short on experience.
“He can make every pass on the field,” Lynn said. “He plays with a lot of poise, he handles himself well in the pocket, he extends plays well, he’s always looking to keep the play alive throwing the ball downfield. So he presents a lot of issues.”
New defenses
Even less is known about the direction both teams have taken on defense, as they break in new schemes and new coordinators. But it’s safe to say, there’s plenty of room for improvement over last season.
USC finished 121st in points given up, while LSU finished 81st. Both finished in the bottom 25 in yards given up (119th and 108th, respectively), largely because of the staggering number of explosive plays they gave up. USC gave up 71 plays of 20-plus yards — an average of 5.5 per game — while LSU gave up 68.
LSU’s new defensive coordinator, Blake Baker, brings an aggressive, blitz-heavy scheme with him from Missouri, where his defense had a sack rate above 9%, ninth best in the nation. And at LSU, he’ll have one of the most talented pass rushers in Harold Perkins Jr. at his disposal, making it essential that USC gets the ball out as quickly as possible.
If it does, there will be explosive plays for the taking downfield. Not only is LSU thin on experience in the secondary, but also Baker’s defense struggled with explosive plays last season as a result of its aggressive approach. Missouri was 97th in giving up plays of 20-plus yards, nearly as bad as LSU.
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For USC and its new defense, the most pressing question will be whether it can hold its own at the line of scrimmage. LSU boasts one of the best offensive lines, with two top tackle prospects in Will Campbell and Emery Jones and two returning guards with years of starting experience.
Lynn worked some developmental magic in his one season as UCLA’s coordinator, turning the Bruins into the No. 2 defense against the run as well as a top-10 pass-rushing unit. He said this month that he believes USC is deeper up front than the group he worked with last season.
That seems hard to believe, considering the personnel. The interior is relying a great deal on progress from defensive tackle Bear Alexander, whom Riley described Thursday as “still very young in football.” USC also desperately needs a pass rusher to emerge from a group that boasts just 15 career sacks.
“We’ve got some guys that have the ability to win in different ways,” Riley said.
Third-year coaches
Hours before Riley shocked the college football world, rumors swirled about him becoming LSU’s next coach. He shut them down that night, saying plainly he wasn’t going to coach the Tigers. The next day he was named the Trojans’ coach.
Kelly, like Riley, picked up and left an established blue-blood program, Notre Dame, for another. Both led their teams to the conference title game — and lost — in their first seasons, and both fell short of returning in their second.
Now entering their third seasons, the pressure is mounting to make a much larger playoff field. Neither starts on the hot seat, but both coaches could use a win in this marquee matchup.
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The coaches, at least, believe in each other. Years ago, when Riley still was a coordinator at East Carolina, the two talked about a job for Riley on Notre Dame’s staff, and Riley’s respect for his counterpart shows.
“He’s obviously done a great job everywhere he’s been,” Riley said of Kelly. “He’s been a really good program-builder, he’s had success at different levels. So, I think he’s done a great job. Somebody I’ve admired for a long time.”
Game notes
Junior defensive back Jaylin Smith, who has started at nickel and safety for USC, will open the season as one of the Trojans’ two outside cornerbacks. … Georgia Southern transfer Michael Lantz will be USC’s starting kicker and kickoff specialist. … USC listed both Alani Noa and Amos Talalele as starters at right guard, and it’s unclear who will get the nod, though clues from fall camp all point to Noa.
This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.
