Nebraska (5-3) stormed out of the gates with three straight wins, including a high-profile 28-10 rivalry game victory over Colorado that let the CFB world know HC Matt Rhule and freshman QB Dylan Raiola are going to be a factor in the revamped Big Ten over the next few years. NU lost a one-score contest to Illinois in Week 4 before rattling off two wins over @Purdue and Rutgers before getting demolished 56-7 by @Indiana and taking @Ohio State to the limit in a close 21-17 defeat. Nebraska’s strength is their 8th ranked SP+ defense that is currently 16th in yards per successful dropback and #1 nationally with a 46% pressure rate. Despite their offense averaging a modest 24 points per game, that’s a full touchdown leap over their 18 PPG average from a year ago, so things are clearly trending in the right direction.
It has been a rough introduction to the Big Ten for UCLA (2-5), with the Bruins struggling to edge out Hawaii 16-13 in Week 1 before suffering five consecutive defeats to teams who ranks 35th or higher in the SP+ rankings. They finally rebounded to carve out a 35-32 victory over @Rutgers in Week 8 to finally break the losing streak, but now face four straight tough games against @Nebraska, @Iowa, @Washington and USC. UCLA is doing an incredible job of limiting big plays, ranking 9th overall in yards per successful play and 6th in defending explosiveness. However they’re also allowing an eye-popping 69% completion rate (130th) while ranking 117th in rushing success rate. The Bruins are doing their best to navigate a brutal first year B10 schedule that is considered the 2nd toughest slate in the entire country.
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Game Details and How to watch 2024 UCLA @ Nebraska live
· Date: Saturday, November 2, 2024
· Time: 3:30 PM EST
· Site: Memorial Stadium
· City: Lincoln, NE
· TV/Streaming: BTN
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Game odds for UCLA @ Nebraska
The latest odds as of Friday morning:
We’ve seen a pretty heavy shift from the -8.5 opening, with the market showing as low as -6 at time of print. The Nebraska moneyline has dropped sharply from -305 to a low of -240, while UCLA has dipped a bit from the +245 opening, but it still showing a +230 out there if you shop around. The game total has moved from 41.5 to a consensus line of 39.5 with little variance at the moment.
Listen to the Bet the Edge podcast as hosts Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick provide listeners with sharp actionable insight, market analysis and statistical data to help bettors gain more information before placing their wagers.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“Nebraska is playing at the 109th slowest pace in the country and is 6-2 to the Under. 3 of their last 4 games have gone under the 39.5 points mark. UCLA is 5-2 to the Under and is playing at the 132nd slowest pace. I lean Under 39.5 points between these two limited offenses.”
BetMGM College Football Highlights: Week 10
“The Big Ten will determine our weekend. Ohio State covering in Happy Valley against Penn State is what we need the most. An upset by either Michigan or Michigan State as big home underdogs would be massive.” – Michael Ranftle, Senior Sports Trader, BetMGM
Most bet Overs (tickets)
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Ohio State at Penn State 46.5
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Air Force at Army 41.5
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Oregon at Michigan 44.5
Most bet Unders (tickets)
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Texas A&M at South Carolina 44.5
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Ole Miss at Arkansas 53.5
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Kansas State at Houston 45.5
Most bet underdogs to win (tickets)
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Penn State +135
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Illinois +120
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Michigan +500
Quarterback matchup for UCLA @ Nebraska
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Nebraska: HC Matt Rhule pulled off a coup by luring five-star Georgia commit QB Dylan Railoa to Nebraska and handing the keys to the offense to him right out of the gate. The young gunslinger is completing 65% of his passes for 7.0 YPA and a 9-to-7 ratio to go with a respectable 67.3 passing grade. He’s not going to win any races, ranking second-to-last nationally in rushing yards per game with -7.2. Though he’s still very raw, Raiola has thrown for first downs on 35% of his passes in close-and-late situations, 10th-best among Power Four quarterbacks.
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UCLA: Last year Ethan Garbers completed 67% of his throws with an 8-to-11 ratio for a very competitive UCLA team. His numbers have decreased against the stout Big Ten defenses, sporting an 8-to-9 ratio with a 66th% PFF offensive grade that’s a noticeable downswing from his 78th percentile grade last season. He’s coming off his best performance of the year, completing 32-of-38 passes for 383 yards and four touchdowns to bring home a close victory over @Rutgers. With Nebraska’s secondary ranking 73rd in passing success rate and allowing a 63% completion rate (92nd), there’s an opportunity for Garbers to have another strong performance.
Betting trends & recent stats for the UCLA Bruins and the Nebraska Cornhuskers
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Nebraska QB Dylan Raiola has completed passes of 20+ yards on just 1-of-59 (1.7%) third down pass attempts, the second-lowest mark among FBS quarterbacks. (Tulsa QB Kirk Francis #1 = 1.6%)
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The Cornhuskers are 4-0 ATS when their defense holds opponents below a 50% 3rd down conversion rate. UCLA’s offense is averaging a 37% 3rd downs conversion rate.
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UCLA running backs are averaging 3.5 yards per carry, tied for the lowest RB YPC average in the country, along with Toledo.
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UCLA has sacked opposing quarterbacks on 4% of pass attempts, while allowing a 69% completion rate. Both are the lowest marks among Big Ten defenses.
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Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
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