USC (5-5) defeated LSU 27-20 in a thrilling season opener and won three of their first four games. The Trojans then sputtered, losing four of their next five contests before beating Nebraska 28-20 last weekend. Though HC Lincoln Riley’s offense has been very competent once again, ranking 13th overall in SP+ offensive rating, they’ve committed 16 turnovers (92nd) and have struggled to hit big plays ranking 114th in passing explosiveness. Year 1 DC D’Anton Lynn’s defense ranks 49th, allowing a disappointing 67.5% completion rate (128th) and ranking 95th in EPA/rush.
UCLA (4-6) took some time getting acclimated to the Big Ten, dropping their first four conference games against Indiana, Oregon, @ Penn State and Minnesota. However, new HC DeShaun Foster and OC Eric Bienemy have turned around their fortunes over the last three games, defeating @Rutgers 35-32, @Nebraska 27-20, and Iowa 20-17 in a dramatic Friday night victory. Unfortunately, their three-game B10 win streak ended last week to a Washington team that has been nearly unbeatable at home over the last two seasons. The Bruins are struggling to move the ball on the ground, ranking 127th in FBS with a 35% rushing success rate and 4th-to-last in yards before contact. Defensively they’ve been exceptional at avoiding big plays, ranking 11th in suppressing explosiveness and 21st with a 5.1% 20+ yard play rate. However, they rank 118th with a 47.2% success rate allowed and 125th in points per scoring opportunity (4.98).
NBC Sports has all the latest info and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from BetMGM, player news and updates, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.
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Game details and how to watch USC at UCLA
· Date: Saturday, November 23, 2024
· Time: 10:30 PM EST
· Site: The Rose Bowl
· City: Pasadena, CA
· TV/Streaming: NBC
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Game odds for USC at UCLA
The latest odds as of Friday morning:
This line opened at USC -4.5 and has held steady throughout the week, but we are starting to see -5/-5.5 in isolated spots. While USC’s moneyline is still fetching close to the -175 it dropped at, UCLA has improved from +145 to a high of +170. The initial 50.5 game total has moved up slightly to a consensus 51.5 across the board.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks:
“The game total is set at 51.5 points, which is a total that UCLA has cleared just two times all season. (Indiana/Rutgers). The Bruins play at the 132nd pace in the country, while both defenses philosophically are willing to give up short, consistent gains in favor of suppressing explosiveness (USC = 10th in plays of 20+/UCLA = 21st). I lean the Under 51.5 points in what should be a hard fought Battle of Los Angeles.”
Listen to the Bet the Edge podcast as hosts Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick provide listeners with sharp actionable insight, market analysis and statistical data to help bettors gain more information before placing their wagers.
Quarterback matchup for USC @ UCLA
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UCLA: Ethan Garbers entered 2023 as the backup for promising five-star freshman recruit Dante Moore. However, when Moore faltered in his shot at the starting gig, Garbers dutifully stepped in and completed 67% of his passes with an 11-to-3 ratio and a commendable 77.7 PFF offensive grade for the 8-5 Bruins. He won the job outright this year but hasn’t had the same success, as is evidenced by his unsightly 7-to-16 big time throw-to-turnover worthy play rate and 86.4 NFL passer rating (107.0 NFL PR in 2023). That being said, Garbers is coming off his four best games of the year, having completed 97-of-142 passes with a 10-to-2 ratio during his four-game revival.
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USC: Junior QB Miller Moss had a high bar to clear in trying to replace Heisman winner Caleb Williams, and perhaps he was asked to do too much. His 6.8 yards per attempt ranks 75th out of 99 qualifying signal callers, while Moss’ 7.6 ADOT (85th of 99) illustrates his inability to test downfield windows. Frustrated with Moss’ decision making and athletic limitations, HC Lincoln Riley finally made the switch to UNLV transfer Jayden Maiava last week. Maiava answered the call with a definitive 28-20 victory over Nebraska that carried a 100% win expectancy. He displayed mobility and arm strength that Moss does not possess and completed 71.5% of his pass attempts for 259 yards and a 3-to-1 ratio.
BetMGM College Football Insights: Odds to make Playoffs
Line movement (Open to Now)
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Indiana +15000 to -500
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Tennessee +180 to -135
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Colorado +2000 to -120
Highest Ticket%
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Tennessee 5.0%
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Iowa 4.8%
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Utah 4.8%
Highest Handle%
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Texas 10.1%
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Indiana 6.4%
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Alabama 5.7%
Biggest Liability
Betting trends & recent stats
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Bruins RB TJ Harden ranks 116th out of 117 FBS rushers with 100+ carries with an average of 3.6 yards per attempt. UCLA RBs have rushed for 2 touchdowns on 192 carries this year, the 5th-worst carry-to-TD rate in the country.
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UCLA QB Ethan Garbers has completed just 32.4% of passes (11 completions/34 net pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season, worst among Power Conference Quarterbacks. For perspective, ISU QB Rocco Becht ranks 2nd-worst with a 41.4% RZ completion rate, 11% higher than Garbers.
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USC RB Woody Marks ranks 3rd among Power Four running backs with 53 targets (43 receptions). Syracuse RB LeQuint Allen tops the list with 63 targets out of the backfield.
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USC is averaging a 4.4% sack rate that ranks 2nd-worst in the Big Ten, only Maryland’s 4.1% sack rate is lower. For comparison, UCLA ranks 15th with a 5.5% sack rate, not much better.
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Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
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