Virginia Cavaliers basketball is right around the corner, so it’s time to start addressing the top questions about this year’s squad. Given that it’s UVA football’s bye week, I took to Twitter to collect questions from the fanbase to answer in a pair of mailbags.
If you haven’t already, check out yesterday’s first mailbag where I predicted UVA’s starting lineup, rotation, glue guy, surprise players, and got into potential offensive adjustments.
Is TJ Power worthy of his former five star status? – @TmcquadeUKYHoos
I think TJ Power is a really good basketball player. I also think there’s a very real argument that high school recruiting rankings or star status tend to be null and void once a guy gets to college and even more so once he transfers.
Power is certainly worthy of the interest Tony Bennett had in him coming out of high school and in the portal. That’s what matters most in my opinion. But five star prospects are typically one good year away from the NBA. I don’t think Power is there right now.
Lateral quickness/movement is the biggest question for Power. He’s a high IQ player. But how he fits into UVA’s help-heavy defense is uncertain. Offensively, what can he bring beyond shooting to make up for his potential defensive deficiencies?
The UVA comp for Power is Sam Hauser. Yet Hauser played for the ‘Hoos in his fifth year. Power has elite traits that project him as an All-ACC caliber player by the end of his career. I suspect he’ll approach that level in a year or two rather than in his first in Charlottesville. He’ll still play a big role for this team, though.
Do we want Power and Saunders at the three/four in heavy doses or is it better with this roster to go with three guards? – @Hooandtrue93
Arguably the most compelling preseason storyline for this UVA team is the Power-Saunders dynamic. Both seem to be among the squad’s best five players. Does that mean they’ll both start or play significant minutes together at the three and four? It very well could.
The Power-Saunders duo reminds me a lot of the Sam Hauser-Trey Murphy coupling, or that of De’Andre Hunter and Braxton Key. No, they’re not as good as those guys nor are they direct comparisons. But the way Bennett will try to fit them into lineups could be similar.
Offensively, Saunders would play the four (like Murphy or Key) and Power the three (like Hauser or Hunter) in lineups with a center. Defensively, I’m not sure how the matchups would go, but I’d suspect Saunders would take the tougher of the two options.
If an opponent has a threatening four who puts the packline defense in conflict, Saunders probably guards that guy while Virginia tries to hide Power on the least threatening guard. And, if the bigger threat is the opposing three, Saunders can probably survive outside.
The argument for playing three guards is two-fold. First, to fit better defensively against other three guard teams. And, second, to have more ball handling/potential creation on offense. In the long run, I’m not totally sure Virginia has the personnel in the backcourt that can supersede Power’s impact as a shooter and, consequently, the jumbo lineup.
I keep going back and forth between Taine Murray and Andrew Rohde as the leading candidate to be that third guard. Murray is a reliable three-and-D guy. Rohde, in his ideal form, can create more offense while also being sticky on-ball. Maybe it’s Ishaan Sharma catapulting his way up the depth chart.
The bottom line is that the three spot is very much up for grabs. Warley and McKneely are the backcourt. Saunders and Buchanan are the frontcourt. Who claims the fifth spot? If it’s Power, we’ll see him and Saunders split at the three and the four. If it’s a guard, it’ll be a more traditional lineup with Power starting the year as a scoring punch off the bench.
Is Elijah Saunders a viable three or will he mostly play the four? – @slarjy
As stated above, Saunders is set for a starting role entering the season. He fits well as UVA’s power forward who can defend, shoot, and rebound. The San Diego State transfer is reliable and can guard a variety of players which makes him a useful tool to have in constructing lineups.
That said, I wouldn’t want UVA to live with Saunders at the three all game long, which is part of why I think the ‘Hoos will roll with some small ball lineups this season. He can bump down to be a center in said combinations. I think he’ll probably spend more time guarding centers than small forwards this season.
Power isn’t a stranger to guarding on the outside – for reference, Rohde and Murray were his primary matchups against the ‘Hoos last season. He can stay in front of bigger, slower guards like those guys. But can he handle the rotations of the packline as a guard?
I may be asking more questions than I’m answering. Saunders can make it work guarding on the outside. He’s a smoother mover than he looks on initial glance with solid lateral movement and the length to contest shots. If UVA’s best lineup consists of him, Power, and Buchanan, I think Virginia will be able to make it work on the defensive end in order to be at its best on offense.
How many minutes per game will we average with three-plus players on the court over 6-foot-8? – @CamCWood
I’ll hedge my bets here and say 14.5 minutes per game across the entire season. I think Virginia will play a good dose of the big lineup (Power, Saunders, and a center). Probably less early in the season and then more once Power establishes himself.
That leaves room for small ball with Saunders at center and traditional lineups with three guards, a forward, and a center. Across those three lineup options I expect a relatively even split.
With Reece and Dunn gone, who is next in line to be the next DPOY candidate? And what’s the best defensive lineup we can put on the court? – @Adrian_Vigil
Among players on the roster, Elijah Gertrude is the guy. But with him taking a medical redshirt after a knee injury this offseason, the picture is muddied.
Anthony Robinson has crazy high athletic potential. He’s also so very raw and hasn’t played in a college basketball game yet. Jalen Warley is UVA’s best defender in the backcourt and on the wing this year – yet he’s only in Charlottesville for a season.
Buchanan has real potential as a rim protector – he had nine blocks in his first six career games. Again, though, it’s early for him. Saunders is a fun one to consider with two years playing for Isaiah Wilkins as an active power forward in the Virginia defense.
I’ll roll with Buchanan as most likely. Virginia hasn’t had a true center win ACC DPOY under Bennett. But he played 15 minutes per game as a true freshman big in the Wahoo system. I’ve got faith he’ll take that jump this year and maybe put himself in the running for DPOY down the line.
There are 10 seconds left in the game, the ‘Hoos are up by one without the ball. Which five guys are you putting on the court to get a stop? – @CamCWood
Saunders, Buchanan, and Jalen Warley are locks. (Again, I’m intrigued by Robinson as a rim-protecting prospect. It’s too soon, though.)
Andrew Rohde and Taine Murray are likely the two I’d throw out there. In reality, Isaac McKneely would take one of their spots. He’s just a bit smaller than both of them, but Bennett surely trusts him to defend in a big spot.
I love the potential for that lineup to switch one-through-four and maybe even one-through-five. Warley being 6-foot-7 as the point guard is fun to think through defensively, particularly after the Cavaliers have been pretty undersized at point guard for the last five or six years.
Saunders and Buchanan should both be effective hedgers who can defend in space. That makes life easier in the frontcourt. Then there’s size in the backcourt with the potential to force offenses to make contested shots. Against smaller teams, Warley could occupy the four defensively with Saunders at the five and those three 6-foot-4 or taller guards in the backcourt. That would be a lineup that could switch one-through-five.
There isn’t one lockdown guy like a Reece Beekman or a Malcolm Brogdon – Warley is the closest. But the pieces are there for Bennett to make this a top-25 defense.
How ready are the bigs? If Blake Buchanan is to be the starter, how many minutes will he need to play? – @Jsappington27
I’ll focus on Buchanan here and go deeper on Robinson and Jacob Cofie in the next question.
After years of projecting a Kadin Shedrick breakout only for him to transfer out, I am hesitant to be overly optimistic about Buchanan in year two. He’s got the physical traits of an effective center in the Bennett system and, to quote a Bennett-ism, he showed flashes as a true freshman.
Buchanan has presumably put weight on this offseason which should keep him out of foul trouble – he committed 4.9 fouls per 40 minutes as a freshman. That added weight will be important for UVA to be able to match up with bruisers on the inside. Buchanan is going to be asked to be a 20-to-25-minute per game player at center this season. The only real center depth behind him is a pair of guys who haven’t played college basketball yet.
I do think this is a logical progression for Buchanan. He got lost at times as a freshman with Jordan Minor eventually providing a more trustworthy presence down low. But my faith in his ceiling as a multiple level offensive threat who can protect the rim, hedge ball screens, and take a shoulder to the chest in the paint never wavered.
If Buchanan has a bad season, things could unravel quickly for the ‘Hoos with Saunders the only frontcourt player with tangible rotational experience. But the legit minutes he got as a freshman bode well for his progression in year two.
Can you talk about where the redshirt and true freshmen are in their development and if you foresee any of them being in the rotation this year? – @Aaron_Barham
Sounds like Ishaan Sharma will be in the rotation.
I see him around Grounds with McKneely and Robinson at least once or twice a week. At volleyball games or soccer games or football games or Asado’s Taco Tuesdays. Does that matter? Maybe not. But, if I were a big shooting guard looking to make an impact as a floor stretcher in my freshman year, I’d also follow iMac around everywhere he went.
Cofie could push Robinson as the backup center. Robinson arrived in Charlottesville last year as an athletic project. He’s your Kadin Shedrick or Mamadi Diakite type who, at 6-foot-10, can block shots and be a menace guarding in space, boasting the length and quickness to disrupt guards with a strong hedge and the quickness to recover to the paint. Offensively, he’s probably limited to occupying the dunker spot and capitalizing off rolls to the hoop.
Like the Shedricks and Diakites of the world, though, Robinson needs to put all the pieces together before he can have a real impact. Avoiding foul trouble and being restrained on defense while being under control on offense are areas where I’m intrigued to track his progress.
Cofie comes to Grounds as the more polished, but less physically dominant option. The 6-foot-10 true freshman can back a defender down, hit a sky hook, maneuver through a guy, and potentially step outside to hit a jump shot. He doesn’t jump out of the gym like Robinson does and it’ll be interesting to see how he adapts to playing the packline as a big in year one.
If one of them steps up to be a steady part of the rotation, that’s good news. Of course, Saunders should eat up minutes at the five as well. So the true backup center spot is probably only getting 10-15 minutes max.
I don’t have much of a read on Christian Bliss. In my book, he’s the least likely player to be in the rotation this season. He could beat Dai Dai Ames out to be the backup point guard as he’s the best shooter of UVA’s point guards. But I’d wager his impact won’t be felt until 2025-2026.
What new guy will have the biggest immediate impact? – @WahooGlobal
Biggest immediate impact is tough. The conservative answer is Saunders or Warley. The fun one is Power. The out-of-left-field one is Sharma.
In writing these mailbags, I’ve found myself awfully higher on Saunders than I originally anticipated. He and Warley should be day one starters filling the two biggest holes Virginia had following Ryan Dunn and Reece Beekman’s departures – at point guard and power forward. Their impact will be immediate while Power, Sharma, Ames, and others will take more time to get their feet under them.
